River Flood Warning 17, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

  - Additional widespread thunderstorms tonight with all severe
    hazards especially SE OK into western AR. Heavy rains and
    flooding footprint expand overnight.

  - Additional storms develop early Sunday with continue severe
    threat including tornado potential. Localized heavy rains will
    worsen any ongoing flooding.

  - Drier weather returns early next week, but unsettled weather
    resumes by midweek and continues into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest and west central Arkansas remains likely to expand
through the rest of the evening and into early Sunday morning,
with an increasing risk for both severe weather and heavy
rain/flash flooding expected. On the severe weather front, the
immediate concern involves the ongoing activity along the I-35
corridor in south central Oklahoma that has been slowly
approaching the western fringes of our southeast Oklahoma
counties. CAM and WoFS solutions have been consistent in bringing
these strong to severe storms into the area from southern
Pittsburg into western Pushmataha counties. The better surface-
based instability remains confined to far southeast Oklahoma,
supporting the locally better potential for tornadoes in this
area. In addition, these have been prolific rainfall producers,
with one-hour rainfall estimates in the 2 to 3 inch range. Expect
an increasing threat for at least 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall
rates to expand into parts of southeast and east central Oklahoma
toward midnight.

With the increase in the low level jet, additional strong
to severe thunderstorms may increase further northward along the
front that extends northeastward to the south of I-44, given
modest instability along and south of the front at present. This
broader threat for severe weather may begin to wane after the 2-4
am time frame given an expected notable decrease in instability
afterward into sunrise Sunday. This activity, if it occurs, will
also lead to an increase in the flash flood threat farther
eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Brief settled period Monday into Tuesday with mild temps and dry
weather. Main stem river flooding may continue during this period.

The pattern for mid to late week is expected to be near zonal
across the CONUS with several smaller scale waves expected to
quickly sweep eastward. Each wave will bring a higher chance of
showers and storms and the forecast will retain daily precip
chances from mid week through next weekend. Plenty of details yet
to be seen regarding specific severe and/or flooding risks but
climatology would favor some degree of severe potential for most
any period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Varying conditions between IFR and VFR will continue across
eastern Oklahoma tonight with MVFR to VFR conditions for northwest
Arkansas as widespread showers and storms move through the region.
Within the stronger convection gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
forecast. The bulk of the current activity looks to move off to
the east during the morning hours Sunday with the potential for a
brief lull in activity. Additional showers and storms are forecast
to spread back into the CWA late morning through mid afternoon from
west to east as a low pressure system and the cold front finally
begin to push through the region. Again, IFR/MVFR conditions,
gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible within the storms.
Behind the departing precip, VFR conditions and gusty
southwesterly winds are forecast into Sunday early evening. During
the evening hours, cloud cover looks to scatter out, though there
is potential for wrap around MVFR ceilings moving back into
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  75  54  81 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   49  79  53  84 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   47  78  55  82 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   41  75  50  81 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   45  76  53  81 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   47  73  52  80 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   44  76  52  81 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   43  73  52  79 /  10   0   0  10
F10   45  76  52  81 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   48  76  53  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
     029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
854 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
854 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Along and Southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase overnight across all
of eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas.
A threat for severe weather will exist across most of the area
along and southeast of Interstate 44, although the greatest potential
for tornadoes and the higher end severe weather threats should
remain confined to areas along and south of Interstate 40. In
addition, heavy rainfall is expected areawide, with a continued
potential for flash flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm...High Wind...and Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The severe weather threat will continue into Sunday afternoon,
with the potential for all severe weather hazards, especially
across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Heavy
rainfall may continue to lead to flash flooding and mainstem
river flooding as well.

After a quiet start to next week, unsettled weather will return by
the middle to latter part of the week, with scattered
thunderstorms expected each day.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1236 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

OKZ062-066>068-070-071-200600-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Cherokee OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-McIntosh OK-
1236 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MCINTOSH...
SOUTHWESTERN MAYES...WAGONER...CENTRAL CHEROKEE...NORTHEASTERN
OKMULGEE AND MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM CDT...

At 1236 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southeast of Taft, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Peggs...                          Mazie...
Oktaha...                         Summit...
Pumpkin Center...                 Fort Gibson...
Muskogee...                       Braggs...
Okay...                           Lost City...
Stonebluff...                     Haskell...
Porter...                         Murphy...
Wainwright...                     Tahlequah...
Tullahassee...                    Hulbert...
Rentiesville...                   Jamesville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for southeastern,
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 9523 3584 9483 3548 9556 3585 9585
      3586 9582 3589 9582 3590 9576 3592 9576
      3608 9549 3608 9544 3610 9544
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 224DEG 44KT 3572 9550

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Mejia

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 AM     Hail             1 NW Kiowa              34.73N 95.91W
04/20/2025  M1.00 Inch       Pittsburg          OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

KAH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
150 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     Flash Flood      4 N Okmulgee            35.68N 95.96W
04/20/2025                   Okmulgee           OK   Emergency Mngr

            Alt. Hwy 75 between Smith Rd and Celia
            Berryhill Rd was closed in both directions
            due to flash flooding.

&&