Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms likely through the overnight. The strongest
  storms may be capable of producing damaging wind around 60
  mph.

- Very heavy rainfall may lead to isolated flooding tonight.

- Hot and humid, with heat indicies around 105 this weekend
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Southerly warm, moist flow is leading to a rather uncomfortable
day with heat indicies from 100 to 106 already this afternoon.
The early morning complex of storms has pushed an effective
front down to around Highway 24. This boundary will be the
focus for thunderstorms through the rest of the day. Current
analysis has over 3,000 J/Kg of ML CAPE and lapse rates
steepening along the boundary. CAMs have been performing rather
poorly with this setup, but it is worth noting that all of them
have at least some isolated storms developing in the 5pm to 7pm
timeframe along the boundary. With no discernible forcing or
upper-level support, any storms that do form late this afternoon
or early evening would likely pulse up quickly and collapse just
as fast. Brief strong wind gusts and small hail would be
possible in these pulse type storms. During the evening/overnight
a low-level jet should kick in and have a favorable orientation
to the boundary to sustain storms. CAMs show widely scattered
storms forming along the front/boundary. A few strong to
marginally severe storms may develop with ample CAPE and 30
knots of shear, at least near the boundary. If training storms
develop, very heavy rainfall and flooding could become a
concern with rainfall rates around two inches an hour.

Models are coming into better agreement with the front moving
through our area Thursday. This would lead to a much cooler day
with highs in the 70s and 80s depending on cloud cover. Temperatures
warm back up for the weekend with strong southerly flow
returning. Heat indices will likely surpass 100 during the
afternoon this weekend through next week. In fact, there is a
growing signal that we are in for a prolonged heat wave next
week.

With westerly flow aloft and ample low-level moisture in place,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through the weekend, but at this time, nothing more
than scattered coverage is favored.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread over the past
half hour so feel confident enough to go with prevailing SHRA
with some TSRA. More intense storms could easily bring
visibilities to IFR with some gusts possible, though these are
looking more isolated. Limiting ceilings should also spread
south though may be interrupted by the convection. Have enough
certainty to mention some IFR cigs as the rain ends. Will
likely only get to MVFR ceiling heights today with some
potential for lower cigs and visbys after 04Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Poage

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
208 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-171915-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
208 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms this evening and
overnight. Damaging wind would be the main threat in the strongest
storms. Additionally, very heavy rainfall may lead to localized
flooding.

Heat indicies around 105 degrees are likely along and south of I-70
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heat indicies around 105 degrees are likely this weekend into next
week.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

KSZ008-170530-
Republic-
1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT REPUBLIC COUNTY THROUGH 1230 AM
CDT...

At 1158 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Scandia, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Belleville, Scandia, Courtland, Cuba, Norway, Republic, Munden,
Narka, and Agenda.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9737 3966 9737 3965 9768 3966 9793
      4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 280DEG 17KT 3985 9779

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Flanagan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
151 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

KSZ022-023-038-170730-
Wabaunsee-Pottawatomie-Riley-
151 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN RILEY...NORTHERN
WABAUNSEE AND SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM
CDT...

At 150 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Louisville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Strong wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wamego, Westmoreland, St. Marys, St. George, Belvue, Emmett, and
Louisville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9604 3912 9603 3911 9603 3911 9647
      3940 9647 3940 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 280DEG 17KT 3930 9634

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Flanagan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
206 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

KSZ037-038-054-170730-
Wabaunsee-Lyon-Morris-
206 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MORRIS...
SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE AND NORTHWESTERN LYON COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM
CDT...

At 206 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles southeast of Alta Vista, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Alta Vista.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 9653 3889 9649 3889 9616 3870 9622
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 279DEG 17KT 3880 9637

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Flanagan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
212 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Alma                    39.01N 96.29W
07/17/2025  E50 MPH          Wabaunsee          KS   Public

&&