Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
101 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

The thunderstorm squall line is moving across southwest Alabama
right now and will reach southeast Alabama and the eastern Florida
Panhandle in about 1-3 more hours. It will still be strong to
severe as it enters the western end of our service area, but then
it will encounter an increasingly stable air mass it it moves east
overnight. So the storms will lose some punch as they move across
the Florida Big Bend.

Otherwise, have updated the gridded wind forecast through
Wednesday, and it shows the possibility of needing to extend the
Wind Advisory through Wednesday, perhaps areawide.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

Strong upper system will push a cold front across the region late
tonight and into Wednesday. Well defined squall line has developed
ahead of the front in the highly sheared unstable lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon. This squall line will continue
eastward through the overnight hours, reaching the western CWA
late this evening. Ahead of the line, a strong low-level jet
continues to support gusty Wind Advisory level winds. This will
continue overnight, with the exception of the Florida Big Bend,
where flow off of the cooler Apalachee Bay shelf waters may help
to limit mixing a bit.

Kinematic environment in SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle will
be rather favorable for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes as
the squall line approaches late this evening. Low-level shear of
around 45 knots and ML-Cape around 500 j/kg (along with rather
curved hodographs) help to support the Enhanced Risk of severe
storms outlooked for this region. As the line moves eastward, the
instability will likely decrease with time and eastward extent,
especially east of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers. However,
isolated damaging wind gusts will still be possible overnight and
into the morning across the Florida Big Bend into SW/SC Georgia.

Once the line exits, low-level wind fields will remain strong
behind the front, so expect to continue to see wind gusts of 30-35
mph across the region on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

Cooler and drier airmass will push into the region in the wake of
the cold front. Temperatures will fall to seasonably cool levels,
but frost and/or freezing temperatures are not anticipated at
this time. The coolest morning looks to be Friday morning, with
moderating thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

Next system in the southern stream will approach the region over
the weekend. Surface low is forecast to track along the Gulf Coast
with this system, although the exact track is highly uncertain.
The eventual track will largely determine the potential for any
severe weather, with a more northern track allowing more
instability to spread inland. Regardless, rain chances will likely
increase during the afternoon on Saturday, continuing into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

A squall line of thunderstorms will quickly move from west to east
late tonight and Wednesday morning. Confidence remains high, so
continue a 2-hour window of categorical thunder at all terminals
for the passage of the line. Following the line, around 2 hours
of trailing rain and embedded thunder is expected, originating out
of a mid-level cloud deck.

Strong westerly breezes are expected on this afternoon into early
tonight. SCT-BKN stratocumulus are expected, but the drying low-
level air mass will keep bases up in the 040-060 range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

Southerly winds will freshen over the marine waters until the
passage of a thunderstorm squall line during the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Later Wednesday, westerly winds behind a cold
front will frequently gust to gale force. Winds will start to
decrease late Wednesday night, and high pressure will pass across
the waters on Thursday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

Strong southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front are
keeping transport winds and dispersion values very high this
afternoon. Winds will shift to the southwest overnight with the
passage of the squall line and front. However, winds will remain
strong in the wake of the front on Wednesday, with winds
continuing to gust over 30 mph. Humidity values will also be lower
on Wednesday, dropping into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

The squall line will move rapidly across the region overnight and
into the day on Wednesday. The speed will limit the potential to
for significant rainfall totals, with QPF expected to be
0.5-0.75" in the west and closer to 0.5" in the east. This should
have minimal impact on area rivers and streams.

Along the coast, strong onshore flow overnight will coincide with
the lower of the two high tides, limiting potential for coastal
flooding along the Panhandle into Apalachee Bay. However, behind
the front, strong southwesterly flow may lead to some minor water
rises during the day on Wednesday at time of high tide along the
eastern Big Bend coast.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  44  62  41 /  70   0   0   0
Panama City   71  45  63  47 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        69  40  60  39 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        72  40  60  38 /  60   0   0   0
Valdosta      77  43  62  40 /  90   0   0   0
Cross City    74  45  64  39 /  70   0   0   0
Apalachicola  71  46  62  48 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for
     FLZ007>014-108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for FLZ108.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Thursday for FLZ112-
     114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115.

GA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>131-
     142>148-155>161.

AL...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ730-
     755-765-775.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EST this evening
     for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM....Camp
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Camp

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
122 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 WNW Blue Mountain Bea 30.35N 86.23W
03/05/2025  M45 MPH          Walton             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 1451W Ed Walline Beach
            Access.

0110 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 E De Funiak Spring Ai 30.73N 86.14W
03/05/2025  M46 MPH          Walton             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 1863W Eagle Springs Golf
            Course.

&&