Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1004 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

The thunderstorm squall line is moving across southwest Alabama
right now and will reach southeast Alabama and the eastern Florida
Panhandle in about 1-3 more hours. It will still be strong to
severe as it enters the western end of our service area, but then
it will encounter an increasingly stable air mass it it moves east
overnight. So the storms will lose some punch as they move across
the Florida Big Bend.

Otherwise, have updated the gridded wind forecast through
Wednesday, and it shows the possibility of needing to extend the
Wind Advisory through Wednesday, perhaps areawide.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

Strong upper system will push a cold front across the region late
tonight and into Wednesday. Well defined squall line has developed
ahead of the front in the highly sheared unstable lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon. This squall line will continue
eastward through the overnight hours, reaching the western CWA
late this evening. Ahead of the line, a strong low-level jet
continues to support gusty Wind Advisory level winds. This will
continue overnight, with the exception of the Florida Big Bend,
where flow off of the cooler Apalachee Bay shelf waters may help
to limit mixing a bit.

Kinematic environment in SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle will
be rather favorable for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes as
the squall line approaches late this evening. Low-level shear of
around 45 knots and ML-Cape around 500 j/kg (along with rather
curved hodographs) help to support the Enhanced Risk of severe
storms outlooked for this region. As the line moves eastward, the
instability will likely decrease with time and eastward extent,
especially east of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers. However,
isolated damaging wind gusts will still be possible overnight and
into the morning across the Florida Big Bend into SW/SC Georgia.

Once the line exits, low-level wind fields will remain strong
behind the front, so expect to continue to see wind gusts of 30-35
mph across the region on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

Cooler and drier airmass will push into the region in the wake of
the cold front. Temperatures will fall to seasonably cool levels,
but frost and/or freezing temperatures are not anticipated at
this time. The coolest morning looks to be Friday morning, with
moderating thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

Next system in the southern stream will approach the region over
the weekend. Surface low is forecast to track along the Gulf Coast
with this system, although the exact track is highly uncertain.
The eventual track will largely determine the potential for any
severe weather, with a more northern track allowing more
instability to spread inland. Regardless, rain chances will likely
increase during the afternoon on Saturday, continuing into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

A low-level jet will really crank up in the next hour or two at
the terminals, with southerly winds of 45-60 knots at 1500 feet
developing. This will lead to low-level wind shear as surface
winds partially decouple.

A squall line of thunderstorms will quickly move from west to east
late tonight and Wednesday morning. Confidence in timing is high,
so went with a 2-hour window of categorical thunder at all
terminals for the passage of the line. Following the line, 2-4
hours of trailing rain and embedded thunder is expected,
originating out of a mid-level cloud deck.

Strong westerly breezes are expected on Wed afternoon. SCT-BKN
stratocumulus are expected, but the drying low-level air mass
will keep bases up in the 040-060 range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

Southerly winds will freshen over the marine waters until the
passage of a thunderstorm squall line during the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Later Wednesday, westerly winds behind a cold
front will frequently gust to gale force. Winds will start to
decrease late Wednesday night, and high pressure will pass across
the waters on Thursday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

Strong southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front are
keeping transport winds and dispersion values very high this
afternoon. Winds will shift to the southwest overnight with the
passage of the squall line and front. However, winds will remain
strong in the wake of the front on Wednesday, with winds
continuing to gust over 30 mph. Humidity values will also be lower
on Wednesday, dropping into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

The squall line will move rapidly across the region overnight and
into the day on Wednesday. The speed will limit the potential to
for significant rainfall totals, with QPF expected to be
0.5-0.75" in the west and closer to 0.5" in the east. This should
have minimal impact on area rivers and streams.

Along the coast, strong onshore flow overnight will coincide with
the lower of the two high tides, limiting potential for coastal
flooding along the Panhandle into Apalachee Bay. However, behind
the front, strong southwesterly flow may lead to some minor water
rises during the day on Wednesday at time of high tide along the
eastern Big Bend coast.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   59  76  44  62 /  90  50   0   0
Panama City   62  71  45  63 /  90   0   0   0
Dothan        56  69  40  60 /  90   0   0   0
Albany        57  72  40  60 /  90  20   0   0
Valdosta      61  77  43  62 /  70  80   0   0
Cross City    64  74  45  64 /  10  90   0   0
Apalachicola  61  71  46  62 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday for FLZ007>014-
     108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for FLZ108.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Thursday for FLZ112-
     114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ115.

GA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for GMZ730-755-765-
     775.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for GMZ730-755-765-
     775.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM....Camp
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Camp