Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Sacramento, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
201 PM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system is moving through the area this afternoon,
bringing Valley thunderstorms, brief heavy rain, gusty erratic
winds, and small hail. Moderate to heavy mountain snow continues
as system pushes further east. We begin to dry out Tuesday into
Wednesday AM before a weaker system is forecast to move into the
area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms, Valley rain, and mountain snow have been
observed throughout the morning and early afternoon. Most of the
convective activity is expected to continue until around 7-8PM,
with breaks the activity and some rays of sun poking through the
cloud deck. The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 11
PM this evening for the southern Cascades and northern Sierra
Nevada above 4500 feet for additional heavy snow amounts of 1-2
feet and snow rates of around 1-2 inches per hour. Mountain travel
is highly discouraged today.

Additional rain amounts up to 0.25 inches is possible throughout
the remainder of the day, with isolated higher totals in any
convection that forms through the evening.. The National Blend of
Models (NBM) also projects a 20-40% probability of scattered
thunderstorms across much of the forecast area. Thunderstorms have
developed near the Park Fire burn scar this afternoon, however
the risk for debris flows is low as rain rates are currently
expected to remain below criteria. Motorists should use caution
while driving in rain and allow for extra time for the Monday
morning and evening commutes.

Precipitation will taper off tonight into early Tuesday morning
and then drier weather is in store for Tuesday into early
Wednesday morning. Clearing skies and lingering cold air will
allow for cold morning low temperatures Tuesday morning. The NBM
projects lows in the 30s in the Valley, 20s to 30s in the
foothills, and teens to 30s in the mountains. Lows will trend a
few degrees warmer on Wednesday morning but will still be on the
cold side.

A weak system will approach the region Wednesday into early
Thursday, bringing another shot of precipitation to the forecast
area. Precipitation amounts of 0.05 to 0.50 inches are currently
forecast, with the higher end of that range in the mountains. Snow
amounts of 2-5 inches are forecast over the mountains, locally up
to 4 to 10 inches over the highest peaks of Shasta County and
Mount Lassen. Slick roads and travel delays will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly in the mountains. There is
a 10% probability of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
in Shasta County. Gusty southerly winds will also accompany this
system, with gusts of 20-40 mph in the north/central Sacramento
Valley and adjacent foothills, and gusts up to 30 to 50 mph over
the Sierra Crest. Precipitation will taper off Thursday morning.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...

Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis indicate another trough
moving over the Pacific Northwest Friday into Saturday. Latest
guidance suggests light precipitation with this over the Coast
Range, Southern Cascades and Shasta County in showers and mountain
snow showers. The National Blend of Models (NBM) shows a 30-60%
probability of a tenth of an inch of rain over higher terrain
north of Interstate 80, and only a 10-20% probability of an inch
of snow. Overall little to no impacts are expected at this time.

Drier weather is then favored for the rest of the weekend and
into next week as clusters support upper level ridging building
back in. A drying and warming trend will bring above normal
temperatures back to interior NorCal by the end of the extended
forecast period. The NBM shows a 75-95% probability of 70 degrees
or higher on Sunday and Monday for the Valley, and a 50-80%
probability of 80 degrees in the north/central Sacramento Valley
on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions as a weather system is moving through
the area bringing rain showers, isolated t-storms in the lower
elevations, and snow showers to elevations above 3500 feet. Best
chance of Valley t-storms through 04z today, with around a 20-40%
probability of a thunderstorm. Gusty erratic winds in any t-storm
that develops. Outside of storms, winds from southwest 15-30 kts,
shifting to west winds after 00z and gradually decreasing.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
354 PM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

CAZ017-067-172330-
Southern Sacramento Valley CA-Motherlode CA-
354 PM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SACRAMENTO...WEST
CENTRAL EL DORADO AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLACER COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
PDT...

At 354 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Granite Bay, or near Folsom, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coloma, Pilot Hill, Citrus Heights, Cool, Auburn, Granite Bay, Lotus,
Folsom, Fair Oaks, Orangevale, Natomas, Gold River, El Dorado Hills,
Loomis, North Auburn, and Roseville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3863 12125 3868 12131 3893 12105 3878 12085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 230DEG 22KT 3874 12116

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

SP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
405 PM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     Hail             5 SSE Corning           39.86N 122.16W
03/17/2025  E1.00 Inch       Tehama             CA   Public

            Public reporting 1 inch hail in Kirkwood at
            the school. Additionally, CHP reporting hail
            covering nearby Interstate 5.

&&

STR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
413 PM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

CAZ015-016-172345-
Northern Sacramento Valley CA-Central Sacramento Valley CA-
413 PM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TEHAMA...WEST
CENTRAL BUTTE AND NORTHEASTERN GLENN COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM PDT...

At 412 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nord, or 7 miles northeast of Orland, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...This storm has a history of producing hail.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Black Butte Dam, Artois, Bluegum, Hamilton City, Black Butte Summit,
Black Butte Lake, Nord, Orland, Vina, and Chico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Sacramento.

&&

LAT...LON 3976 12248 3997 12205 3980 12174 3954 12225
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 322DEG 14KT 3979 12206

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

SP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
417 PM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

CAZ017-019-067-180000-
Southern Sacramento Valley CA-Northern San Joaquin Valley CA-
Motherlode CA-
417 PM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN...
NORTHWESTERN CALAVERAS AND SOUTHWESTERN AMADOR COUNTIES THROUGH 500
PM PDT...

At 417 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Paloma to near Lodi.
Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Valley Springs, Campo Seco, Paloma, Acampo, Lockeford, Jackson,
Mokelumne Hill, Lodi, Clinton, Sutter Creek, North Woodbridge,
Camanche Reservoir, Victor, Wallace, Woodbridge, Pine Grove, South
Woodbridge, San Andreas, Camanche Village, and Rancho Calaveras.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 12066 3829 12102 3822 12127 3817 12137
      3805 12131 3819 12053
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 241DEG 9KT 3828 12076 3809 12131

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Rowe