Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Sacramento, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
201 PM PDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system is moving through the area this afternoon,
bringing Valley thunderstorms, brief heavy rain, gusty erratic
winds, and small hail. Moderate to heavy mountain snow continues
as system pushes further east. We begin to dry out Tuesday into
Wednesday AM before a weaker system is forecast to move into the
area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms, Valley rain, and mountain snow have been
observed throughout the morning and early afternoon. Most of the
convective activity is expected to continue until around 7-8PM,
with breaks the activity and some rays of sun poking through the
cloud deck. The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 11
PM this evening for the southern Cascades and northern Sierra
Nevada above 4500 feet for additional heavy snow amounts of 1-2
feet and snow rates of around 1-2 inches per hour. Mountain travel
is highly discouraged today.

Additional rain amounts up to 0.25 inches is possible throughout
the remainder of the day, with isolated higher totals in any
convection that forms through the evening.. The National Blend of
Models (NBM) also projects a 20-40% probability of scattered
thunderstorms across much of the forecast area. Thunderstorms have
developed near the Park Fire burn scar this afternoon, however
the risk for debris flows is low as rain rates are currently
expected to remain below criteria. Motorists should use caution
while driving in rain and allow for extra time for the Monday
morning and evening commutes.

Precipitation will taper off tonight into early Tuesday morning
and then drier weather is in store for Tuesday into early
Wednesday morning. Clearing skies and lingering cold air will
allow for cold morning low temperatures Tuesday morning. The NBM
projects lows in the 30s in the Valley, 20s to 30s in the
foothills, and teens to 30s in the mountains. Lows will trend a
few degrees warmer on Wednesday morning but will still be on the
cold side.

A weak system will approach the region Wednesday into early
Thursday, bringing another shot of precipitation to the forecast
area. Precipitation amounts of 0.05 to 0.50 inches are currently
forecast, with the higher end of that range in the mountains. Snow
amounts of 2-5 inches are forecast over the mountains, locally up
to 4 to 10 inches over the highest peaks of Shasta County and
Mount Lassen. Slick roads and travel delays will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly in the mountains. There is
a 10% probability of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
in Shasta County. Gusty southerly winds will also accompany this
system, with gusts of 20-40 mph in the north/central Sacramento
Valley and adjacent foothills, and gusts up to 30 to 50 mph over
the Sierra Crest. Precipitation will taper off Thursday morning.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...

Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis indicate another trough
moving over the Pacific Northwest Friday into Saturday. Latest
guidance suggests light precipitation with this over the Coast
Range, Southern Cascades and Shasta County in showers and mountain
snow showers. The National Blend of Models (NBM) shows a 30-60%
probability of a tenth of an inch of rain over higher terrain
north of Interstate 80, and only a 10-20% probability of an inch
of snow. Overall little to no impacts are expected at this time.

Drier weather is then favored for the rest of the weekend and
into next week as clusters support upper level ridging building
back in. A drying and warming trend will bring above normal
temperatures back to interior NorCal by the end of the extended
forecast period. The NBM shows a 75-95% probability of 70 degrees
or higher on Sunday and Monday for the Valley, and a 50-80%
probability of 80 degrees in the north/central Sacramento Valley
on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions as a weather system is moving through
the area bringing rain showers, isolated t-storms in the lower
elevations, and snow showers to elevations above 3500 feet. Best
chance of Valley t-storms through 04z today, with around a 20-40%
probability of a thunderstorm. Gusty erratic winds in any t-storm
that develops. Outside of storms, winds from southwest 15-30 kts,
shifting to west winds after 00z and gradually decreasing.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

&&

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