Alert archive / Michigan / Tornado Watches in 2025

Tornado Watch 256

May 15, 202541 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 15, 2025, 8:22 PM EDT for 41 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2025, 8:22 PM EDT (00:22 UTC)
Expired: May 16, 2025, 1:45 AM EDT
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 70 kt

All 41 counties

Allegan County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Barry County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 40%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 90%

Warnings issued inside it

28 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 9:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	GRR	Mason, Muskegon, Oceana, Ottawa	89 min
May 15, 9:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Benzie, Manistee	76 min
May 15, 9:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	GRR	Allegan, Van Buren	87 min
May 15, 9:33 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GRR	Muskegon, Newaygo, Ottawa	42 min
May 15, 9:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	GRR	Kent, Newaygo	83 min
May 15, 10:02 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GRR	Allegan, Ottawa	43 min
May 15, 10:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	GRR	Lake	46 min
May 15, 10:12 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GRR	Kent, Montcalm, Newaygo	33 min
May 15, 10:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	GRR	Mecosta	61 min
May 15, 10:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Wexford	66 min
May 15, 10:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	GRR	Montcalm	81 min
May 15, 10:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Barry, Ionia, Kalamazoo	71 min
May 15, 10:33 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GRR	Allegan, Barry, Kent	42 min
May 15, 10:43 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GRR	Allegan, Barry	47 min
May 15, 10:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Osceola	38 min
May 15, 10:58 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GRR	Barry, Eaton, Ionia	47 min
May 15, 11:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Calhoun	59 min
May 15, 11:02 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GRR	Calhoun, Kalamazoo	43 min
May 15, 11:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Eaton	53 min
May 15, 11:18 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GRR	Eaton	27 min
May 15, 11:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clare, Isabella	38 min
May 15, 11:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	GRR	Clinton	42 min
May 15, 11:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Gratiot	42 min
May 15, 11:32 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GRR	Clinton, Gratiot	32 min
May 15, 11:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Jackson	67 min
May 15, 11:34 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GRR	Ingham	41 min
May 15, 11:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Gladwin, Missaukee, Roscommon	44 min
May 16, 1:07 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Cheboygan	21 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 228 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1413 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -24 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1102 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 116 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 216 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 5.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 9:30 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Berrien, Branch, Cass, Saint Joseph	3 hr
May 15, 10:00 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegan, Barry, Cass, Ionia, Kalamazoo, Kent and 10 more	90 min
May 15, 10:47 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arenac, Bay, Genesee, Gladwin, Ingham, Iosco and 14 more	118 min
May 15, 11:28 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston and 11 more	3 hr
May 16, 3:30 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alger, Delta, Dickinson, Menominee	2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Michigan, 2025 Every tornado watch in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.