Tornado Warning 8, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
732 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Thunderstorms this Evening

- Another Round of Strong to Severe Storms Friday Evening

- Windy Saturday, Cooler into Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

- Severe Thunderstorms this Evening

Tonight between 8pm and 2am a round of thunderstorms is expected
to move through the area bringing with it the potential for
damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

The main source of lift for these storms will be with the occluded
front with upper level divergence aloft along with some
convergence in the wind fields at 850-700mb. Instability has been
gradually building through the day with Mixed Layer CAPE values
currently in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range across much of the area.
Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along the front in
Minnesota and are expected to expand south along the front as it
moves east this afternoon and into this evening. 0-1km storm
relative helicity values peak ahead of the front in the 100 to 150
m2/s2 range and around 200 m2/s2 from 0-3km. Paired with 30 to 40
knots of effective shear and Most Unstable CAPE values around 2000
J/kg this will be a prime environment for rotating updrafts, hence
the increased hail and tornado risk.

There is some variability in the storm mode as it heads into
western Michigan. Individual storms are expected to develop in
Wisconsin and may become clustered or form a line as they move
across the lake into western Michigan. If storms take a more
linear formation, then winds and quick spin up tornadoes would
become the main concern. Any isolated or clustered supercells
would be more likely to produce all hazards, especially hail.

With the risk for severe storms late this evening, make sure you
have a way to receive warnings and a plan in place to take shelter
when warnings are issued.

- Another Round of Strong Friday Evening

Most of Friday will be dry with instability building through the
day. Steep lapse rates and ample dry air causing an inverted V in
soundings will set the stage for an environment favorable for
downbursts. Lift provided by the positive vorticity advection
swinging around the 500mb low will move in around 8pm Friday
causing showers and thunderstorms to develop. Similar to Thursday
evening storms taper off shortly after midnight.

- Windy Saturday, Cooler into Next Week

The same low mentioned in the previous section will gradually
track across the northern Great Lakes Saturday. Lingering showers
associated with the low should clear early Saturday afternoon, but
as the rain and lower clouds clear, gusty westerly winds will
develop. Some gusts to 40 mph are possible during the afternoon.
Calmer conditions move in for the remainder of the weekend with
highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

The forecast remains on track for storms currently over Wisconsin
and Illinois to move into the area between 0-5Z this evening from
west to east. Storms will be capable of damaging winds, large
hail, and even tornadoes. Heavy rain with the storms could also
reduce visibilities down to 1 to 2 SM and ceilings to fall to MVFR
values. Southwest winds could be gusty as storms exit with gusts
around 35 knots. Low level wind shear will also be present as the
front and storms move through with a break in the winds and low
level wind shear late tonight into Friday morning.

Breezy southwest winds develop once more for Friday with gusts
around 25 knots. Another round of rain and thunderstorms looks to
move in Friday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

A round of thunderstorms is expected between 8 and 10pm with the
potential for large hail, damaging winds, and waterspouts. Rough
water is expected with this round of storms with southwest winds
moving in behind the line. A second round of storms moves in
Friday night with the potential for storms to be strong with gusty
winds being the primary concern. The low pressure system
responsible for these rounds of storms will move through the
northern Great Lakes Saturday bringing with it a tight pressure
gradient and gusty Westerly winds. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for Friday through Saturday evening due to winds and high
waves.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
339 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-161945-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
339 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A line of severe thunderstorms will move through this evening with
large hail, damaging downburst winds and tornadoes possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms Friday evening could bring some hail and gusty
winds.

Frost and freezing temperatures are possible Sunday night mainly
along and north of US-10.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening.

LMZ844>849-161945-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
339 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for the nearshore waters from
St Joseph to Manistee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A line of thunderstorms could bring hail, winds gusting over 40
knots, and waterspouts this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms Friday evening could bring some hail and gusty
winds.

Winds and waves will be hazardous to small craft on Friday and
Saturday.