Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 2154

October 18, 20255 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 18, 2025, 4:48 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 18, 2025, 4:48 PM CDT (21:48 UTC)
Expired
Oct 18, 2025, 6:15 PM CDT
In force
87 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...severe thunderstorm watch likely
Chance of a watch
80%
All 64 counties

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Union County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Perry County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Crockett County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Obion County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 297 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2025-10-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 12 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2025-10-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 142 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
12 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-310 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1475 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
142 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 18, 9:23 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Madison, Sebastian, Washington2 hr
Oct 18, 11:17 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Conway, Crawford and 21 more7 hr
Oct 18, 12:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Sevier67 min
Oct 18, 1:20 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 3 more11 hr
Oct 18, 2:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Fulton and 16 more2 hr
Oct 18, 3:21 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 14 more5 hr
Oct 18, 4:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas, Grant and 4 more2 hr
Oct 18, 6:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCrittenden, Cross, Lee, Phillips, St. Francis6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.