Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 2152

October 18, 202522 counties in Arkansas; 18 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 18, 2025, 2:12 PM CDT for 22 counties in Arkansas; 18 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 18, 2025, 2:12 PM CDT (19:12 UTC)
Expired: Oct 18, 2025, 4:15 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe thunderstorm watch 623

All 40 counties

Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Marion County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pope County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Yell County, AR, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Perry County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Texas County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 155 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 625Oct 18, 3:20 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1043 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -133 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1203 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 241 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 266 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 18, 9:23 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Madison, Sebastian, Washington	2 hr
Oct 18, 11:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Conway, Crawford and 21 more	7 hr
Oct 18, 12:53 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Sevier	67 min
Oct 18, 1:20 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 3 more	11 hr
Oct 18, 3:21 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 14 more	5 hr
Oct 18, 4:41 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas, Grant and 4 more	2 hr
Oct 18, 4:48 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Craighead, Greene, Independence, Lawrence, Mississippi and 2 more	87 min
Oct 18, 6:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Crittenden, Cross, Lee, Phillips, St. Francis	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2025 Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2025 Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.