Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
304 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Collaboration call with SPC has resulted in a cancellation of
Tornado Watch #38 for portions of Northern Louisiana and South
Central Arkansas and the issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #43
for portions of Northeast Texas, mainly south of the dryline as
mentioned above. These storms will pose more of a large hail
threat given the steep lapse rates in place vs a tornado threat
thus the decision to go Severe Thunderstorm Watch and not Tornado
Watch but per collaboration with SPC...that certainly does not
mean we could not see an isolated tornado across Northeast Texas
this morning. Thinking is the tornado threat will be higher across
Northern Louisiana and South Central Arkansas later this morning
so a new Tornado Watch will likely become necessary for areas
downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #43 in a few hours.

13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Sfc dryline as of 2 AM this morning was basically paralleling the
I-30 Corridor of NE TX into SW AR and had shown some instances of
backing up slightly to the northwest earlier this morning but it
should begin slowly advancing south and east after sunrise as our
upper level trough pivots out of the Texas Hill Country and into
the Middle Red River Valley. Current Tornado Watch #38 in effect
until 5 AM will be allowed to expire on time and beyond this, we
will need to watch for renewed convective development to our south
and southwest as upper level ascent should really begin amping up
near or shortly before sunrise in response to the ejecting
upstream trough. The airmass to the south and east of the stalled
dryline can best be described as marginally unstable attm with
SBCAPE values near 1500-2000 J/KG with steep mid-level lapse
rates near 8 Deg/C. With plenty of Deep Layer Bulk Shear to work
along and pockets of 0-3KM SRH near 250-300 m2/s2, all modes of
severe weather will be possible this morning. Assuming that the
dryline behaves as progs suggest, our greatest severe weather
threat area should be focused across Deep East Texas into Northern
Louisiana and South Central Arkansas with the window of
opportunity being mainly this morning before ending by very early
afternoon at the latest across our far eastern zones as by that
time, our region should become dryslotted aloft from the
southwest.

As the dryline advances east in advance of the upper trough axis,
look for rapidly falling dewpoints which will result in rapidly
falling humidity. Post dryline winds will veer around to the WSW
with speeds near 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. This again will
result in an elevated Fire Danger risk today across our western
half (see Fire Weather Discussion below for details). Went on the
warmer side of guidance concerning temperatures today as NBM MOS
has been too cool for days now and see no reason to go cooler
today without a frontal passage behind the dryline today.

Speaking of frontal passage, the true cold front in association
with the upper trough will finally begin moving into our region
from the northwest by very late this afternoon, making quick work
through our region by late this evening. Cannot rule out some
isolated showers in this post dryline/pre frontal airmass before
skies clear areawide tonight. We will see a cool down for Sunday
but nothing significant with high temperatures mostly in the 60s.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Upper ridging through the early part of next week will mean dry
conditions but temperatures quickly moderate by Monday with a
warming trend continuing into at least Tuesday of next week. Our
next upstream trough ejects out into the Southern Plains Tuesday
Night/Wed timeframe but the trough appears to be moisture starved
across our region. Kept slight chance pops going for Wed across
our eastern half only but this trough does not appear to have much
impact on our region other than to cool us down slightly by the end
the upcoming work week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Windy conditions will persist at all sites for the at least the
first couple of hours of the period. However, wind speeds should
rapidly diminish to around 10 kts or less before 15/06z. Showers
and thunderstorms remain possible early in the period, mainly
southeast of a line from KJSO to KELD, but convective coverage and
impacts any individual TAF sites are very uncertain. MVFR ceilings
are expected at most locations after 15/06z. Another round of
convection should develop across East Texas just before sunrise
and will spread east and southeast on Saturday, finally exiting to
the east late in the period. Flight conditions should rapidly
improve back into the VFR range from west to east as the showers
and thunderstorms end.

Nuttall

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

There will be another elevated Fire Danger threat once again today
across the western half of the Four State Region. This will
include all of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, the adjacent
counties of Southwest Arkansas and the western third of Northwest
Louisiana. While there will be a chance of wetting rain this
morning across this region, rainfall amounts will be mainly near a
quarter of an inch or less. Minimum afternoon humidity values will
fall into the upper teens to near 30 percent across this region
with west southwest to west winds sustained near 15 mph with
higher gusts. Temperatures should fall off quickly this evening
after sunset and winds will shift around to the northwest in the
wake of a strong cold front. This should allow for rapid humidity
recovery after sunset this evening and this should alleviate the
elevated fire danger threat today. A Fire Danger Statement will be
issued for the western half of our region to highlight this
elevated Fire Danger threat today.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Spotter activation will likely be needed today for the development
of severe thunderstorms across portions of Deep East Texas into
Northern Louisiana and South Central Arkansas this morning through
very early this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  48  68  43 /  70  20   0   0
MLU  77  49  65  41 /  70  20   0   0
DEQ  75  40  65  36 /  40  20   0   0
TXK  78  44  66  42 /  40  20   0   0
ELD  76  45  65  38 /  70  20   0   0
TYR  80  45  68  45 /  40  10   0   0
GGG  80  45  68  43 /  50  10   0   0
LFK  82  48  71  44 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
354 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

TXZ136-149-150915-
Smith TX-Cherokee TX-
354 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHEROKEE AND SOUTHERN
SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 354 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 19 miles northwest of Reese to 13 miles
southwest of Maydelle, or extending from 25 miles southwest of Tyler
to 20 miles southwest of Rusk, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Tyler, Jacksonville, Whitehouse, Rusk, Bullard, Troup, Mixon,
  Mount Selman, Reese, Ponta, Maydelle, New Summerfield, Noonday,
  New Chapel Hill, Gallatin, Reklaw, Cuney, Concord and Teaselville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 9548 3220 9546 3224 9549 3236 9517
      3208 9499 3185 9498 3185 9497 3172 9496
      3164 9528 3168 9528 3172 9534 3173 9533
      3173 9537 3175 9536 3176 9540 3182 9540
      3184 9545 3193 9542 3196 9545 3208 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 250DEG 54KT 3213 9567 3191 9552 3168 9547

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
437 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

TXZ137-138-150-151-151000-
Panola TX-Harrison TX-Gregg TX-Rusk TX-
437 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GREGG...
SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON...NORTHWESTERN PANOLA AND CENTRAL RUSK
COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM CDT...

At 437 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Henderson, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Henderson, Tatum, Beckville, Pinehill, Minden, Joinerville,
  Easton, Church Hill, Chapman, Stewart, Oak Hill, Fairplay, Chalk
  Hill, Monroe, Brachfield, Darco and Laneville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 9469 3250 9452 3230 9420 3193 9482
      3215 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 0936Z 229DEG 41KT 3209 9479

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

20

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
446 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 AM     Hail             4 WSW Gallatin          31.87N 95.21W
03/15/2025  E1.00 Inch       Cherokee           TX   Broadcast Media

            Public report of hail estimated to be
            quarter size near the Cherokee County
            Airport.

&&

20

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
448 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 AM     Hail             5 SE Henderson          32.10N 94.76W
03/15/2025  E0.75 Inch       Rusk               TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

20