Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
840 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

We are starting to clear behind the line with cancellation of NW
LA so far from Tornado Watch #44 until 1pm. The dry line is
nearing Terrel TX now with SW winds gusting at Mexia, just west of
Palestine. We have some new development near Longview, but the
atmosphere is pretty worked over behind the line. Most of the
activity to be concerned with will persist from deep east Texas,
into Toledo Bend Country and our Parishes to the NE including
Ruston and into S AR and Union County for a little bit yet. CenLa
is going to wait on more heating and the push developing over
Toledo Bend Dam and down toward Jasper to clear around
lunchtime. /24/

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Per coordination with SPC...we have cancelled Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #43 for all of NE TX as the instability axis has shifted
east into N LA attm. Tornado Watch #44 remains in effect for all
of Northern Louisiana and Union County in South Central Arkansas
until 1 pm this afternoon and we should be able to begin trimming
the western parishes out of is a little later this morning.

13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Sfc dryline as of 2 AM this morning was basically paralleling the
I-30 Corridor of NE TX into SW AR and had shown some instances of
backing up slightly to the northwest earlier this morning but it
should begin slowly advancing south and east after sunrise as our
upper level trough pivots out of the Texas Hill Country and into
the Middle Red River Valley. Current Tornado Watch #38 in effect
until 5 AM will be allowed to expire on time and beyond this, we
will need to watch for renewed convective development to our south
and southwest as upper level ascent should really begin amping up
near or shortly before sunrise in response to the ejecting
upstream trough. The airmass to the south and east of the stalled
dryline can best be described as marginally unstable attm with
SBCAPE values near 1500-2000 J/KG with steep mid-level lapse
rates near 8 Deg/C. With plenty of Deep Layer Bulk Shear to work
along and pockets of 0-3KM SRH near 250-300 m2/s2, all modes of
severe weather will be possible this morning. Assuming that the
dryline behaves as progs suggest, our greatest severe weather
threat area should be focused across Deep East Texas into Northern
Louisiana and South Central Arkansas with the window of
opportunity being mainly this morning before ending by very early
afternoon at the latest across our far eastern zones as by that
time, our region should become dryslotted aloft from the
southwest.

As the dryline advances east in advance of the upper trough axis,
look for rapidly falling dewpoints which will result in rapidly
falling humidity. Post dryline winds will veer around to the WSW
with speeds near 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. This again will
result in an elevated Fire Danger risk today across our western
half (see Fire Weather Discussion below for details). Went on the
warmer side of guidance concerning temperatures today as NBM MOS
has been too cool for days now and see no reason to go cooler
today without a frontal passage behind the dryline today.

Speaking of frontal passage, the true cold front in association
with the upper trough will finally begin moving into our region
from the northwest by very late this afternoon, making quick work
through our region by late this evening. Cannot rule out some
isolated showers in this post dryline/pre frontal airmass before
skies clear areawide tonight. We will see a cool down for Sunday
but nothing significant with high temperatures mostly in the 60s.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Upper ridging through the early part of next week will mean dry
conditions but temperatures quickly moderate by Monday with a
warming trend continuing into at least Tuesday of next week. Our
next upstream trough ejects out into the Southern Plains Tuesday
Night/Wed timeframe but the trough appears to be moisture starved
across our region. Kept slight chance pops going for Wed across
our eastern half only but this trough does not appear to have much
impact on our region other than to cool us down slightly by the end
the upcoming work week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

For the 15/12z TAF update...following numerous thunderstorms
moving across the region this morning. As such, TAFs are going to
be a mess for a while this morning for most terminals. Things
should start to improve by this afternoon as storms begin to exit
the region to the east. Winds will remain gusty this afternoon
behind the passing thunderstorms with sustained winds of 10 to 15
kts and gusts ranging from 20 to 25 kts. /33/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

There will be another elevated Fire Danger threat once again today
across the western half of the Four State Region. This will
include all of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, the adjacent
counties of Southwest Arkansas and the western third of Northwest
Louisiana. While there will be a chance of wetting rain this
morning across this region, rainfall amounts will be mainly near a
quarter of an inch or less. Minimum afternoon humidity values will
fall into the upper teens to near 30 percent across this region
with west southwest to west winds sustained near 15 mph with
higher gusts. Temperatures should fall off quickly this evening
after sunset and winds will shift around to the northwest in the
wake of a strong cold front. This should allow for rapid humidity
recovery after sunset this evening and this should alleviate the
elevated fire danger threat today. A Fire Danger Statement will be
issued for the western half of our region to highlight this
elevated Fire Danger threat today.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Spotter activation will likely be needed today for the development
of severe thunderstorms across portions of Deep East Texas into
Northern Louisiana and South Central Arkansas this morning through
very early this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  48  68  43 /  70  20   0   0
MLU  77  49  65  41 /  70  20   0   0
DEQ  75  40  65  36 /  40  20   0   0
TXK  78  44  66  42 /  40  20   0   0
ELD  76  45  65  38 /  70  20   0   0
TYR  80  45  68  45 /  40  10   0   0
GGG  80  45  68  43 /  50  10   0   0
LFK  82  48  71  44 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
714 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

ARZ061-072-LAZ002-003-151300-
Bossier LA-Columbia AR-Nevada AR-Webster LA-
714 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BOSSIER AND
NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER PARISHES AND COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA
COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM CDT...

At 714 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sarepta, or 9 miles south of Springhill, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Magnolia, Springhill, Waldo, McNeil, Cullen, Cotton Valley,
  Sarepta, Taylor, Emerson, Shongaloo, Macedonia, Welcome, Village,
  Calhoun, Horsehead, Walkerville, Noxobe, Laughlin, College Hill
  and Ebenezer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 9352 3302 9351 3302 9349 3305 9349
      3350 9316 3348 9312 3338 9312 3338 9298
      3330 9298 3302 9322 3302 9324 3299 9324
      3273 9346 3284 9364
TIME...MOT...LOC 1214Z 212DEG 55KT 3287 9349

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

20

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
730 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 AM     Hail             2 NNE Ruston            32.56N 92.62W
03/15/2025  E1.00 Inch       Lincoln            LA   Public

            mPING Report.

&&

BT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
905 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

ARZ073-LAZ004-151430-
Claiborne LA-Union AR-
905 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE PARISH
AND WESTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

At 905 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Junction City, moving north at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 30 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  El Dorado, Smackover, Norphlet, Junction City, Wesson, Lisbon,
  Newell, Cairo, Three Creeks, Hew Hope and Kenova.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 9283 3337 9278 3339 9276 3338 9273
      3337 9271 3337 9269 3336 9267 3336 9266
      3337 9264 3336 9262 3336 9260 3337 9260
      3336 9254 3293 9277 3300 9297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1405Z 199DEG 43KT 3301 9285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
909 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

LAZ011-018-019-151445-
Natchitoches LA-Winn LA-Red River LA-
909 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES...
SOUTHEASTERN RED RIVER AND NORTHWESTERN WINN PARISHES UNTIL 945 AM
CDT...

At 909 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Campti, or 11 miles north of Natchitoches, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 30 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Natchitoches, Campti, Allen, Provencal, Natchez, Clarence,
  Goldonna, Ashland, Robeline, Powhatan, Clear Lake, Creston, Grand
  Ecore, Black Lake, Chestnut, Hagewood, Flora and Marthaville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3189 9329 3215 9310 3215 9277 3211 9269
      3157 9313 3167 9334 3171 9334 3171 9342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1409Z 212DEG 35KT 3189 9310

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

20

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
914 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 AM     Hail             2 WNW Blanchard         32.60N 93.92W
03/15/2025  E1.00 Inch       Caddo              LA   Public

            Public report of quarter size hail in the
            Blanchard area.

&&

20

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
918 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 AM     Hail             4 W Carthage            32.16N 94.40W
03/15/2025  E1.00 Inch       Panola             TX   Public

            Report via email.

&&

BT