Severe Thunderstorm Warning 404, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
624 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

-  Heat headlines continue through Wednesday, but relief is near
   as a rare August front drops south into the region later on
   Wednesday.

 - Thunderstorms will continue to increase along and ahead of the
   front with a low-end severe threat for damaging wind gusts and
   heavy rainfall.

 - Heat will return this weekend but not to the extent that we
   have experienced as of late, with highs generally in the mid to
   upper 90s both Saturday and Sunday before more extended heat
   relief and increasing rain chances return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

One more oppressively hot afternoon continues produce dangerous
heat across the entire region as temperatures have surged well
into the 90s to lower triple digits. The hottest temperatures so
far have been largely confined to our northern half where we may
be seeing some compressional warming ahead of a southward moving
frontal boundary advancing through the northern half of Arkansas
and across east central Oklahoma. Heat headlines across our area
continue to align well with observed heat indices this afternoon
and given that high temperatures will still remain in the mid to
upper 90s on Wednesday with elevated humidity, did go ahead and
extend the Heat Advisory through 7 PM tomorrow while downgrading
the Extreme Heat Warning for areas where it remains in effect
through early this evening.

Aside from ongoing heat concerns, mesoanalysis reveals that the
environment remains supportive for some isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms, namely in the form of very localized microburst
wind gusts especially across our NW zones this afternoon through
this evening. Thus, SPC has accounted for this potential with a
Marginal Risk for areas mainly north of I-30 but certainly feel
this threat could extend farther south. Likewise, the heavy rain
theat generally encompasses the same areas with a Marginal Risk
ERO highlighted by WPC. In addition, cannot rule out some small
hail contained within some of the strongest storms through this
evening. As heating diminishes overnight, convection should also
follow suit with low temperatures dropping back into the 70s with
a few locations possibly holding near 80 degrees in advance of the
aforementioned sfc boundary.

With the frontal boundary easing farther south into the region on
Wednesday, expect increasing convective coverage especially during
the latter half of the day as afternoon heating and instability is
maximized. With this in mind, still think the microburst potential
will carry through Wednesday afternoon and evening along with the
threat of localized flash flooding resulting from heavy rainfall
anywhere across the region as highlighted in WPC's Day 2 ERO. The
front should continue to advance south of the region through the
day on Thursday with additional showers and thunderstorms, mainly
along and south of I-20 with coverage possibly lingering through
Friday in our southernmost zones.

By this weekend, rain chances will all but dry up as heat ramps
back up with the upper-level ridge axis expanding back eastward
across our region. This will push high temperatures back into the
mid and upper 90s areawide, although humidity levels will remain
lower in the post-frontal environment. The upper ridge will begin
to break down and retrograde farther west once again by early next
week with a an unusually strong longwave trough dropping southward
across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. This will favor lower
temperatures and higher rain chances through the extended forecast
period next week, something I'm sure is welcome news following the
prolonged heat wave we've experienced for much of this month.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

For the 20/00z TAF update...Seeing a few returns on radar still
this evening across southern and central Arkansas but there has
not been much activity around any terminals as of yet. With the
overall trend going downwards, I am not sure that we will see
anything at any of our terminals. I have removed VCTS from all
locations except for KTXK and KELD as there are still storms close
enough. Aside from any storms that might move close to our
northern terminals, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout this TAF period with light winds expected throughout.
/33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight, but some
strong thunderstorms with locally gusty winds and small hail will
be possible through this evening as convection increases ahead of
a frontal boundary advancing southward from Arkansas and Oklahoma.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  99  76  96 /  20  50  50  30
MLU  75  98  74  94 /  20  60  50  40
DEQ  72  96  71  93 /  30  40  20  20
TXK  76  99  74  96 /  20  50  30  20
ELD  73  96  71  93 /  20  60  40  20
TYR  76  96  74  94 /  20  50  40  40
GGG  75  98  73  94 /  20  50  50  40
LFK  75  97  74  94 /  10  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ050-051-059>061.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ017>020-022.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     021.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-108>111-124-
     125-136-137-149>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ097-112-126-138.

&&

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33