Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
130 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the ArkLaTex
   today, continuing through the end of the week for our southern
   zones.

 - Rain and cloud cover will provide some limited relief from the
   heat, before conditions warm up into the weekend.

 - Another system early next week will bring more showers and
   storms and another dent in the heat for our northern zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

As a frontal boundary nudges its way southward across the ArkLaTex,
clusters of convection continue to impact portions of east Texas,
with additional convection moving into south Arkansas and northeast
Louisiana. These forcing-driven clusters are expected to be joined
by diurnally-driven pop-up convection into this afternoon. The
entire region is outlooked in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall
leading to flash flooding, and a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms is in place for the southern half of the ArkLaTex.

While the forcing boundary remains present across the southern zones
of the ArkLaTex, convection will be slow to drop off entirely, even
with the loss of daytime heating after sunset. Storms should
decrease in intensity into the overnight hours, but look to continue
through the night, particularly for the southern third or so of the
region. This pattern will continue into the day tomorrow, reflected
in rainfall chances being highest across the southern zones,
decreasing to the north. The speed at which the stalled boundary
departs is still hazy, but storms look to diminish overnight
Thursday into Friday before one last push Friday afternoon, likely
aided by durnally-driven convection.

With the departure of the boundary by the end of the work week, the
weekend ahead looks to be quieter by comparison. This will, however,
be accompanied by temperatures warming back into the upper 90s
and lower 100s under abundant sunshine. The hint of relief will be
in the form a drier airmass in the wake of the frontal passage,
which should keep humidity in check, not necessitating the
issuance of heat products. A developing system riding south on
northwest flow aloft looks to swing another front into the
ArkLaTex early next week, kicking up more storms and maybe making
another dent in the heat towards the end of this extended forecast
period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

For the 20/18z TAF period...VFR conditions across the region at
this hour. However, a broken line of storms have develop near the
US HWY 84 corridor of East TX. This line will eventually make it
to near the KLFK site this afternoon. Elsewhere, models continue
to suggest more convection will develop across the region this
afternoon, so decided to add VCTS/TSRA at the remaining sites
through the early evening hours. VFR conditions should return
overnight, although an isolated storm or two can't be ruled out.
Additional convection is expected to develop near daybreak along
a slow advancing cool front. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  76  94  74 /  50  40  30  10
MLU  98  74  93  71 /  50  40  40  10
DEQ  96  71  93  69 /  40  20  10   0
TXK  98  74  95  71 /  40  30  20   0
ELD  96  71  93  68 /  50  30  20   0
TYR  96  74  92  72 /  50  30  30  10
GGG  98  73  93  71 /  50  30  40  10
LFK  98  74  91  73 /  50  40  60  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...20

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
347 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

LAZ010-017-202130-
De Soto LA-Sabine LA-
347 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DE SOTO AND
NORTHWESTERN SABINE PARISHES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Mansfield, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mansfield, Converse, Oak Grove, Pleasant Hill, Noble, Pelican and
  Belmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 9374 3209 9369 3203 9351 3165 9349
      3171 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 6DEG 14KT 3191 9360

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
349 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

TXZ165-202115-
Angelina TX-
349 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ANGELINA COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 349 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Huntington, or 15 miles southeast of Diboll, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Dolan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3109 9464 3116 9454 3105 9438 3103 9446
      3103 9449 3104 9449 3104 9451 3106 9453
      3105 9454 3106 9455 3105 9455 3107 9457
      3107 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 311DEG 9KT 3110 9456

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
350 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

ARZ050-059-202115-
Sevier AR-Little River AR-
350 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LITTLE RIVER AND
SOUTHEASTERN SEVIER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 350 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ben Lomond, or 12 miles north of Ashdown, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Ashdown, Wilton, Ben Lomond, Richmond, Oak Grove, Browntown, Pine
  Prairie and Millwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 9426 3391 9406 3388 9405 3387 9402
      3385 9402 3384 9400 3375 9396 3374 9395
      3374 9397 3371 9396 3373 9396 3373 9395
      3371 9395 3370 9397 3369 9396 3367 9397
      3359 9409 3361 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 349DEG 9KT 3385 9414

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24

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