Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
224 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

For the rest of this afternoon: All eyes in the office remain
hyperfocused on the line of thunderstorms approaching from the
west and currently moving through east Texas and far southwest
Arkansas. As such, Tornado Watch 197 and 198 remain in effect for
portions of the area through later this afternoon and into the
early evening hours. Short range guidance suggests that this
activity will slowly meander through our region well into the
overnight hours, although there is some uncertainty on how severe
it will remain the later it gets.

Main additional piece of information is that the Flood Watch has
been extended southward to the I-20 corridor through late Thursday
morning. Please see our social media pages or website for the
latest on the watches. Latest guidance suggests that showers and
thunderstorms will be ongoing through Thursday morning, before
starting to clear the area to the southeast around noon. From
here, we wait to see if things can reignite during the afternoon
hours. Model guidance indicates that there could be some isolated
storms develop across portions of the area that could become
strong to severe. There is some decent instability across our
region, but the forcing is weak, and we are going to have to
compete with a cap over the area. So this could limit our storm
production during Thursday afternoon.

Things could get interesting once again Thursday night into Friday
morning as models are showing another MCS moving through southern
Oklahoma and possibly into northeast Texas. There does remain some
uncertainty with how far into our area this MCS could get, maybe
just touching our northern zones. Nonetheless, with the rainfall
received, and more coming, this could bring some additional
flooding concern to our northern zones, with the entire area at
least in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday into
Thursday night. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Wish I could say that Thursday would be the end of our showers and
thunderstorms, but that just is not the case. A cold front will
gradually push through the area on Friday, bringing additional
showers and thunderstorms to the area. While severe weather seems
to be limited right now for Friday, there is still a chance for a
strong thunderstorm or two. Flooding will also be a concern on
Friday, depending on how much rain we get today and Thursday.
Showers linger into Friday night before exiting the area by
Saturday morning with some drier conditions to follow as some weak
ridging builds into the area.

One thing to note about next week, should the long-range models
verify, it looks like an Omega Blocking pattern could set up by
the middle of next week, according to the GFS anyways. Guess it
can't really be considered a blocking pattern yet because it does
not look to stick around very long. For reference, I think I would
be ok with this pattern not setting up as this would bring warmer
temperatures and no rain for our region depending on where it
would set up if it should set up. Anywho, the bottom line is that
the long-term might start off with some rain before drying up for
much of the rest of it. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Any remaining MVFR terminals will quickly become low VFR over the
next hour outside of convection. Speaking of convection, still
watching a broken line of strong storms approaching the I-30
Corridor early this afternoon. Tried to distance speed this line
of convection from northwest to southeast impacting all our
terminal locations through the remainder of the day and through
the evening and overnight hours. Uncertain as to storm coverage on
Thursday but did mention at least VCSH or VCTS by late morning
near but especially south of our I-20 terminal locations on Thu.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Spotter activation is expected later today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  87  68  83 /  70  30  10  70
MLU  69  84  66  84 /  40  60  20  60
DEQ  62  83  62  75 /  90  10  20  80
TXK  65  84  65  78 /  90  20  20  80
ELD  64  83  63  80 /  80  50  20  70
TYR  67  85  67  80 /  70  10  10  80
GGG  67  86  66  81 /  70  20  10  80
LFK  68  87  68  84 /  60  40  10  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>072.

LA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ001>003.

OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138.

&&

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...13

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