Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
253 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

An active morning across the Four State Region as two complexes of
thunderstorms are underway. The first is tied to a boundary that was
previously linked to thunderstorms across SW Arkansas during late
Sunday evening. While the complex as whole is not overly impressive,
thunderstorms have continued to re-fire on the boundary, which
appearers to have stalled just south of the Shreveport/Bossier metro.
Main concern linked to this boundary driven convection will be gusty
winds associated with the passing boundary, with storms becoming
briefly tall enough to support a brief hail threat, and heavy
downpours leading to possible flood concerns, especially if the
boundary has stalled.

This boundary will likely continue to re-fire convection through the
morning hours before becoming caught up in the dominate convective
complex unfolding across the DFW metro. This secondary wave will
continue to push southeast through the morning, ultimately working
across the Four State Region through sunrise, with the potential
that it does not exit the region until the early afternoon. Concern
with this complex will be the potential for gusty winds, along with
additional heavy rainfall moving over areas where training showers
are ongoing due to re-fire along the aforementioned boundary from
Sunday evening storms. As a result of this, the Storm Prediction
Center has drawn up a Slight Risk across much of the FA, while the
Weather Prediction Center has drawn up an expansive Slight Risk ERO
to combat the local flood threat. A Flood Watch remains in effect
for the FA through 7 AM CDT Tuesday.

As this complex exits the local area later this afternoon, there
should be a period in the wake of the complex where we go mostly
rain and showers free for a few hours. There remains some
uncertainty surrounding what unfolds overnight Monday into Tuesday
as select hi-res models depict what appears to be another MCS
embedded within the W/SW flow. At the same time, global guidance
does advertise a shortwave within the mid-level flow that would
likely be the driving support for another complex to materialize.
That being said, some of the more experimental hi-res CAMs that have
performed better when compared to the more traditional guidance
is not as bullish with the Tuesday morning MCS potential. To
combat this, have elected to draw up a west to east progression of
CHC PoPs to advertise some potential through Tuesday.

Temperatures this afternoon will be solely dependent on how the
morning convection plays out. Depending how quickly this can get out
of the region will determine how much warming we see in the wake of
the MCS. For now, calling for mid to upper 80's. Temperatures won't
change much for Tuesday, with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80's
once again.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

West to southwest quasi-zonal flow will continue as we head into mid-
week, with disturbances embedded within the flow supporting daily
rainfall potential. QPF through the entire 7 day period calls for
an additional 2-4" on top of what has already fallen, with
locally higher amounts near 5" not ruled out. Near to potentially
just below normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the week as highs will linger around the low and mid 80's.

It won't be until long wave troughing, linked to an upper
disturbance kicking east across the Midwest, that we see a switch up
in the upper-level pattern. As a result, PoPs at the end of the
period (for now) are minimal. That being said, we are still days out
for confidence to be very high.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

For the 26/06z TAF period...A mix bag of VFR/MVFR flight
conditions across the TAF sites, as showers/thunderstorms and low
clouds continue to move into the region. Eventually, expect
reduced flight categories areawide, as low clouds and a cluster of
thunderstorms move into the region overnight into the morning
hours. VFR conditions should return by the end of the period in
wake of the convection, but mid to high clouds will hang across
the region. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Spotter activation may be needed as thunderstorms are ongoing
early this morning, with additional thunderstorms expected to move
across the region later this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  72  86  71 /  80  50  40  20
MLU  86  72  85  71 /  90  30  50  30
DEQ  78  63  81  60 /  90  50  30  10
TXK  82  68  84  65 /  90  50  40  10
ELD  83  66  83  64 /  90  30  50  20
TYR  86  69  85  67 /  80  50  30  20
GGG  86  68  85  66 /  80  50  40  20
LFK  91  70  87  70 /  80  50  40  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...20

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