Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
649 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected during
  this short-term forecast period with all severe weather hazards
  possible.

- Large hail and straight-line damaging wind gusts are the primary
  severe threats, with increasing confidence of a potentially high
  end wind event overnight through Monday morning.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire Four-State Region from
  this evening through 7 AM Tuesday with rainfall totals averaging
  between 2-4 inches and isolated higher amounts.

A very active weather period is in store for the region over much
of the next week, especially in the short-term with severe weather
and flooding impacts expected. Beginning late this afternoon into
this evening, the very warm and moist air mass in place is already
yielding strong to severe convection across parts of Arkansas and
Oklahoma, prompting Severe Thunderstorm Watch headlines to include
many of our SW Arkansas counties this afternoon into this evening.

This convection is largely occurring near and along a stationary
frontal boundary just to our north while additional convection has
begun to develop south of the boundary. Given the robust heating
and instability in place this afternoon, these pulse thunderstorms
ahead of the boundary will have the potential to produce isolated
large hail and damaging wind gusts across much of SW Arkansas. As
we move into the early evening, the line of developing convection
to our north will also take aim on our northern counties and may
trigger additional outflows ahead of it.

Looking a bit later on and especially after midnight, yet another
convective complex appears poised to take aim on our region from
the west with a heightened concern of damaging straight-line
winds based on the consistency of a lot of the hi-res model
guidance. This complex is progged to track parallel along the
middle Red River Valley southward to the I-20 corridor in North
Central TX before expanding farther south as it enters our region
through the pre-dawn hours on Memorial Day. There are some
indications this could potentially be a long-lived wind event,
raising concerns of power outages associated with any widespread
damaging wind gusts.

As if the potential severe concerns aren't enough at this point,
we're also looking at the prospects of repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall through at least Tuesday. With that in mind, have issued
a Flood Watch areawide through 7 AM Tuesday with the possibility
of further extensions based on additional rainfall forecasted for
later in the week. For now, it appears the stalled boundary to our
north will finally gain enough upper-level support to shift south
into our region by late Tuesday before advancing toward the coast
by Tuesday night into Wednesday.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

The aforementioned sfc boundary is progged to stall along the Gulf
coast with a secondary front following closely behind it. Combined
with the longwave trough axis digging farther south and additional
disturbances moving through the upper-level flow pattern, rainfall
and thunderstorms will remain possible through mid to late week.
As a result, the flash flooding concerns are likely to persist in
addition to increasing hydrologic response across our area lakes
and rivers.

This unsettled pattern may finally begin to ease by next weekend
as the upper-level trough axis pivots eastward into the SE CONUS
and along the eastern seaboard. Until then, expect this active
pattern to persist for much of the upcoming week with multiple
rounds of severe weather and heavy rainfall. It's probably goes
without saying, but temperatures are expected to be much milder
compared to this past week if there's any silver lining in this
forecast.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Spotty thunderstorms have been popping up in SW Arkansas for the
last several hours, bringing some impacts to KTXK and KELD. These
storms are expected to move further south over the next 6 or so
hours, bringing MVFR ceilings along. Some light rain will likely
stick around behind the complex of storms overnight tonight. Some
areas could also see brief dips of ceilings into upper IFR heights
overnight. The next line of storms will begin to impact east
Texas sites around 26/10z as it moves eastward into the region.
The storms will have the greatest chance of being severe during
the morning hours, but some light rain will be possible into the
afternoon. Winds will be mostly southeasterly overnight and
shifting southwesterly tomorrow, but variable and gusty winds are
likely with any thunderstorms that move in. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening, and
even through the overnight as thunderstorms approach the Four
State Region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  89  72  87 /  50  70  70  70
MLU  72  87  71  85 /  40  60  50  80
DEQ  67  80  65  81 /  80  70  80  40
TXK  71  85  68  83 /  70  70  80  60
ELD  68  84  66  83 /  60  70  70  70
TYR  72  86  69  84 /  50  70  80  60
GGG  71  88  68  84 /  50  70  80  70
LFK  74  92  70  88 /  20  50  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...57

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