Tornado Warning 47, NWS Springfield, MO

633 
WWUS53 KSGF 291340
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
840 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

MOC145-291400-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-250429T1400Z/
Newton MO-
840 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTY...

At 839 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Granby, or 9 miles east of Neosho, moving east at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Fairview, Stark City, Newtonia, Granby, Wentworth, Stella, and
Ritchey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 9428 3693 9431 3700 9406 3676 9407
      3675 9417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1339Z 256DEG 46KT 3686 9420 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Wise

385 
WWUS53 KSGF 291351
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
851 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

MOC145-291400-
/O.EXP.KSGF.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-250429T1400Z/
Newton MO-
851 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
900 AM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 9428 3693 9431 3700 9406 3676 9407
      3675 9417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 256DEG 46KT 3688 9408 

$$

Wise

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms
  this morning into the early afternoon. Primary hazards are
  damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Flood Watch in effect from 7 AM Today through 7 AM Thursday
  with a Slight (2 of 4) to locally Moderate (3 of 4) Risk for
  excessive rainfall. Multiple rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms will result in widespread amounts of 1 to 3
  inches, with localized amounts up to 4 to 6 inches.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue during the day
  Thursday. Therefore, any lingering flood impacts may continue
  for areas receiving more heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

As a cold front to our northwest continues its trek east,
current radar imagery shows strong thunderstorms moving towards
west-central and central Missouri focused along the front.
Satellite imagery shows a low-level moisture plume riding along
the southern periphery of a low-level jet spread from southwest
Missouri all the way to Quebec, with the moisture plume feeding
directly into the convergent flow along the front.

Though our west-central and central Missouri counties will be
clipped by some strong thunderstorms associated with the
existing line near Kansas City early this morning, the highest
risk for severe thunderstorms will be further south. The
storms moving into central Missouri are quickly running out of
instability to feed off of, and though instability has also
decreased slowly through the overnight hours further south,
there is still 1500-200 J/kg of MUCAPE available for the
anticipated development in central Kansas and northeast Oklahoma
to work with.

Evolution through the day today will look like this: morning
convection in central Missouri will decrease in intensity and
coverage as it moves further east. The decaying remains of these
storms will organize with a stronger cluster of developing
storms in south-central Kansas and northeast Oklahoma early
this morning (6-9 AM). The storms in Kansas and Oklahoma will
move more due east as they develop along the still-
southeastward- progressing cold front. This segment of storms
will be where our highest severe weather threat for the day
comes from, both in space and time. The severe risk for storms
will exit our south- central Missouri counties in the early
afternoon (12-2 PM).

Hazards associated with these strong to severe storms would
include hail to the size of quarters (more likely in elevated
storms that can sustain behind the front) and damaging wind
gusts 60-70 mph associated with embedded supercell-like
structures within the line, in addition to heavy rainfall and
associated localized flash flooding (see more below).

Front-parallel winds aloft will help support the formation of a
forward-propagating MCS, which will really work over the
morning environment and propel the cold front through our area.
The midday passage of the cold front will help to contain the
buildup of instability behind the front, with 00Z HREF mean
MUCAPE this afternoon remaining largely below 1000 J/kg besides
a small corridor near the central MO/AR border. However, more
recent runs of CAMs are showing considerably less, remaining
below 500 J/kg. This will work against the formation of
potential post-frontal elevated supercells, keeping development
behind the cold front through the day more akin to trailing
stratiform rain, with potential breaks/gaps in coverage between
"rounds" of development. However, if areas of instability can
recover sufficiently behind the MCS, some stronger storms could
be possible. As the day progresses and overnight into Wednesday,
severe weather becomes less and less likely.

Flood Watch goes into effect at 7 AM this morning through 7 AM
Thursday. Aforementioned parallel winds aloft will increase
training thunderstorm potential, where rainfall rates could
reach 1-2"/hr despite a fast storm motion and relatively low
residence time of the deepest convection. 1 hour flash flood
guidance is around 2.5" along the I-49 corridor, decreasing to
1-1.5" into the higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Models continue to come closer into agreement on rainfall
totals, though location of the heaviest precipitation axis is
still not well agreed upon. Storm total rainfall amounts have
decreased slightly for Tuesday - Thursday due to the decrease in
model spread. We now anticipate widespread rainfall totals in
the 1-3" range, with localized amounts in the 4-6" range. As
mentioned above, much of the rainfall will come in short bursts,
which will increase the associated flash flooding potential,
especially in flashy basins.

Rainfall will continue through Thursday in several rounds, with
breaks in precipitation likely between some rounds. Despite some
short respites from rain, recovery time will be minimal with the
repeated development and movement of storms into the area from
our southwest on Wednesday into Thursday. With the heaviest
precip axis shifting south, confidence in widespread flash
flooding is decreasing relative to previous forecasts, but
confidence in localized areas of flash flooding and river
flooding remains high, especially in the flood-prone areas of
far southwest Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Strong thunderstorms are congealing into a line along the
southern extent of a cold front in southeast Kansas to start
the TAF period off, which will kick off a wet period with
intermittently degraded flight conditions. Rain will continue
behind the leading edge of thunderstorms, perhaps with brief
breaks between showers but with rain generally prevailing
through the day. Winds will shift dramatically behind the front,
shifting from south-southwesterly to northerly for the
afternoon before becoming southerly again this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
505 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
505 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to move into the area
this morning, with severe thunderstorm hazards primarily being
hail up quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 to 70 mph. There
is a low potential for additional thunderstorm development behind
the cold front this afternoon, and if afternoon thunderstorms are
able to form, supercells with all hazards (primarily large hail)
could be expected.

Heavy rainfall with the day's thunderstorms will elevate river
and flash flood risks in southwest Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring additional
rainfall to the region through Thursday. Breaks between rounds
will be short, which will limit recovery and sustain concerns for
river and flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning into this afternoon
for southwest Missouri and portions of far southeast Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Camden

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
812 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     Hail             Galena                  37.08N 94.64W
04/29/2025  M1.00 Inch       Cherokee           KS   Amateur Radio

            1 inch hail in Galena KS.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
816 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NE Joplin             37.09N 94.50W
04/29/2025  E70 MPH          Jasper             MO   Trained Spotter

            seeing some rotation of clouds.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
820 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     Hail             2 S Iron Gates          37.04N 94.55W
04/29/2025  M1.00 Inch       Newton             MO   Broadcast Media

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
822 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 AM     Flash Flood      Pittsburg               37.41N 94.70W
04/29/2025                   Crawford           KS   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Dispatched fire units around Pittsburg to
            respond flooding issues and reports of
            vehicles in water.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
823 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     Hail             1 SW Joplin             37.07N 94.52W
04/29/2025  M0.75 Inch       Jasper             MO   Public

            Report from mPING 0.75 inch, penny hail.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
824 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     Hail             Webb City               37.15N 94.48W
04/29/2025  M1.00 Inch       Jasper             MO   Broadcast Media

            Hail at Webb city, been going on about 3
            minutes.

&&

TEO