Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
853 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms
  this morning into the early afternoon. Primary hazards are
  damaging wind gusts and large hail, but brief tornadoes
  cannot be ruled out.

- Flood Watch in effect from 7 AM Today through 7 AM Thursday
  with a Slight (2 of 4) to locally Moderate (3 of 4) Risk for
  excessive rainfall. Multiple rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms will result in widespread amounts of 1 to 3
  inches, with localized amounts up to 4 to 6 inches.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue during the day
  Thursday. Therefore, any lingering flood impacts may continue
  for areas receiving more heavy rainfall.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Concerning the current Severe Thunderstorm Watch, an evolving
thunderstorm complex is currently progressing east-
northeastward acorss southwest Missouri. Latest radar imagery
and ground reports have shown wind gusts up to 50 to 60 mph,
with potentially up to 70 mph. Joplin airport reported a 58 mph
wind gust, potentially higher in the one minute obs.
Additionally, radar imagery has shown a band of potentially
large hail north of Webb City and west of Carthage. 1.65 inch
hail was measured with this core. This is expected to continue
east-northeastward along and south of I-44 as the surface cold
front sits across central Missouri, allowing 1000-1500 J/kg
SB/MLCAPE ahead of the line. Lastly, some mesovortex rotation
has been noted in some surges along the line. Our current VAD
shows 15-20 kts of low-level shear oriented to the NE. However,
surface observations closer to to the line are shifting to out
of the east-southeast. This is locally modifying the environment
to create 20-30 kts of NE-oriented shear, meaning any surge of
the line to the NE could produce brief tornadoes. Severeal
tornado warnings have been issued for this, but nothing has been
reported yet. We will continue to monitor this as the line
progresses across southern Missouri. Therefore, as the line
moves through, expect the main hazards to be damaging winds up
to 60-70 mph, hail up to quarters to golf balls, and a couple
brief, weak tornadoes. The SPC MCD buts the most probable
*max* intensity of these hazards to be 1.5-2.5 inch hail, 55-70
mph wind gusts, and <95 mph tornadoes.

In terms of heavy rain, with PWATs approaching 1.5-1.6 inches,
instantaneous rates showed some locations receiving 2 inches in
30 minutes. These are very efficient rain makers as well.
Therefore, flash flooding is also possible within areas that see
the strongest part of the storm. The evolving progressive
nature of the line shold limit this threat, though we are
expecting more periods of rain through Thursday, so a Flood
Watch remains in effect.

Expectations for the rest of the Flood Watch period will be
ironed out in the subsequent forecast, however, with this
complex developing a strong cold pool behind it, expect the
stable air and cold front to locally accelerate south, which
should shift the axis of heaviest rain further south from
previous forecasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

As a cold front to our northwest continues its trek east,
current radar imagery shows strong thunderstorms moving towards
west-central and central Missouri focused along the front.
Satellite imagery shows a low-level moisture plume riding along
the southern periphery of a low-level jet spread from southwest
Missouri all the way to Quebec, with the moisture plume feeding
directly into the convergent flow along the front.

Though our west-central and central Missouri counties will be
clipped by some strong thunderstorms associated with the
existing line near Kansas City early this morning, the highest
risk for severe thunderstorms will be further south. The
storms moving into central Missouri are quickly running out of
instability to feed off of, and though instability has also
decreased slowly through the overnight hours further south,
there is still 1500-200 J/kg of MUCAPE available for the
anticipated development in central Kansas and northeast Oklahoma
to work with.

Evolution through the day today will look like this: morning
convection in central Missouri will decrease in intensity and
coverage as it moves further east. The decaying remains of these
storms will organize with a stronger cluster of developing
storms in south-central Kansas and northeast Oklahoma early
this morning (6-9 AM). The storms in Kansas and Oklahoma will
move more due east as they develop along the still-
southeastward- progressing cold front. This segment of storms
will be where our highest severe weather threat for the day
comes from, both in space and time. The severe risk for storms
will exit our south- central Missouri counties in the early
afternoon (12-2 PM).

Hazards associated with these strong to severe storms would
include hail to the size of quarters (more likely in elevated
storms that can sustain behind the front) and damaging wind
gusts 60-70 mph associated with embedded supercell-like
structures within the line, in addition to heavy rainfall and
associated localized flash flooding (see more below).

Front-parallel winds aloft will help support the formation of a
forward-propagating MCS, which will really work over the
morning environment and propel the cold front through our area.
The midday passage of the cold front will help to contain the
buildup of instability behind the front, with 00Z HREF mean
MUCAPE this afternoon remaining largely below 1000 J/kg besides
a small corridor near the central MO/AR border. However, more
recent runs of CAMs are showing considerably less, remaining
below 500 J/kg. This will work against the formation of
potential post-frontal elevated supercells, keeping development
behind the cold front through the day more akin to trailing
stratiform rain, with potential breaks/gaps in coverage between
"rounds" of development. However, if areas of instability can
recover sufficiently behind the MCS, some stronger storms could
be possible. As the day progresses and overnight into Wednesday,
severe weather becomes less and less likely.

Flood Watch goes into effect at 7 AM this morning through 7 AM
Thursday. Aforementioned parallel winds aloft will increase
training thunderstorm potential, where rainfall rates could
reach 1-2"/hr despite a fast storm motion and relatively low
residence time of the deepest convection. 1 hour flash flood
guidance is around 2.5" along the I-49 corridor, decreasing to
1-1.5" into the higher terrain of the eastern Ozarks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Models continue to come closer into agreement on rainfall
totals, though location of the heaviest precipitation axis is
still not well agreed upon. Storm total rainfall amounts have
decreased slightly for Tuesday - Thursday due to the decrease in
model spread. We now anticipate widespread rainfall totals in
the 1-3" range, with localized amounts in the 4-6" range. As
mentioned above, much of the rainfall will come in short bursts,
which will increase the associated flash flooding potential,
especially in flashy basins.

Rainfall will continue through Thursday in several rounds, with
breaks in precipitation likely between some rounds. Despite some
short respites from rain, recovery time will be minimal with the
repeated development and movement of storms into the area from
our southwest on Wednesday into Thursday. With the heaviest
precip axis shifting south, confidence in widespread flash
flooding is decreasing relative to previous forecasts, but
confidence in localized areas of flash flooding and river
flooding remains high, especially in the flood-prone areas of
far southwest Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Strong thunderstorms are congealing into a line along the
southern extent of a cold front in southeast Kansas to start
the TAF period off, which will kick off a wet period with
intermittently degraded flight conditions. Rain will continue
behind the leading edge of thunderstorms, perhaps with brief
breaks between showers but with rain generally prevailing
through the day. Winds will shift dramatically behind the front,
shifting from south-southwesterly to northerly for the
afternoon before becoming southerly again this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

UPDATE...Price
SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
505 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
505 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to move into the area
this morning, with severe thunderstorm hazards primarily being
hail up quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 to 70 mph. There
is a low potential for additional thunderstorm development behind
the cold front this afternoon, and if afternoon thunderstorms are
able to form, supercells with all hazards (primarily large hail)
could be expected.

Heavy rainfall with the day's thunderstorms will elevate river
and flash flood risks in southwest Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring additional
rainfall to the region through Thursday. Breaks between rounds
will be short, which will limit recovery and sustain concerns for
river and flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning into this afternoon
for southwest Missouri and portions of far southeast Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Camden

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