Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
239 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop mainly along
  and east of Highway 65 through early this evening. Gusty
  winds up to around 50 mph will be possible with a few of the
  strongest storms this afternoon.

- Scattered storms will occur again on Tuesday, mainly along
  and west of Highway. Downburst wind gusts up to 40-50 mph
  could occur with a few of the stronger storms.

- Hot weather continues through Wednesday then a cold front
  will bring temperatures closer to normal Thursday into the
  weekend.

- A cold front will move through the region on Thursday with
  better rain chances (40-70%). Lingering low rain chances
  continue into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

The area remains between low pressure over the plains and one
over the southeast U.S. A warm air mass remains in place over
the area as highs in the lower 90s will occur today and again on
Tuesday across the area. Scattered storms have develop across
the eastern Ozarks this afternoon. The activity will continue to
develop and occur this afternoon into early evening mainly
along and east of Highway 65 today. The activity will start to
dissipate and decrease in coverage near sunset. Some uncapped
MUCAPE will remain in place across the area this evening but
lift will be much more limited this evening into tonight.
Therefore most locations should remain dry, but there will be a
low chance (<15%) for some isolated showers and storms tonight.

An unstable air mass in in place across the area, but wind shear
is weak so the storms are pulse in nature. The storm motion
will be slow and with precipitable water values around 1.5 to
1.75" across the area will allow for some brief heavy down
pours with the storms. There could also be a few strong to
marginally severe storms today with wind gusts the main risk
with a few of the strongest storms. The peak will be now through
around 5pm then the intensity and coverage should gradually
weaken/decrease with loss of surface heating.

The warm conditions will remain over the area again on Tuesday
with highs once again warming into the lower 90s. Scattered
storms are expected to develop again on Tuesday, mainly along
and west of highway 65 during the afternoon hours as instability
increases and the cap weakens. Brief down pours and localized
gusts winds up to 50 mph will be possible with a few of the
strongest storms Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

An upper level trough will move east across the plains mid week
and the region late week. Warmer conditions will occur again on
Wednesday ahead of the trough. Some scattered showers and storms
will be possible again on Wednesday, but coverage may be less
than today and tomorrow. A front will move through Thursday into
Thursday night, shower and storm chances (40-70%) will occur
with the front as it slowly moves through the region. Cooler
weather will occur behind the front with highs in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s will occur Thursday into the weekend. The
upper level trough will slowly move across the region allowing
some lingering showers to occur at times Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Scattered showers and storms are developing across portions of
the area early this afternoon and will continue to develop
across portions of the area into the early evening hours then
coverage will decrease this evening. There is a low chance for
some isolated convection developing late tonight into early
Tuesday morning. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop late Tuesday morning and especially the afternoon
hours Tuesday. A brief low visibilities due to rainfall,
lightning, and may gusty winds of 20 to 30kt will be possible
with any of the scattered storms this afternoon into early this
evening. Outside thunderstorms winds should generally be light
and variable.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.

Record High Temperatures:

September 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
KVIH: 96/1954

September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 15:
KSGF: 74/1936

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Nelson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
116 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161830-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
116 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon
into early this evening, with the best coverage generally along
and east of Highway 65. Brief heavy downpours and lightning will
occur with the storms. There will be the potential for some
strong to marginally severe storms with this activity this
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk with a few
of the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible again Tuesday
before more widespread rain arrives Wednesday through late week.
Total rainfall amounts are expected to remain low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

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