Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
239 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop mainly along
  and east of Highway 65 through early this evening. Gusty
  winds up to around 50 mph will be possible with a few of the
  strongest storms this afternoon.

- Scattered storms will occur again on Tuesday, mainly along
  and west of Highway. Downburst wind gusts up to 40-50 mph
  could occur with a few of the stronger storms.

- Hot weather continues through Wednesday then a cold front
  will bring temperatures closer to normal Thursday into the
  weekend.

- A cold front will move through the region on Thursday with
  better rain chances (40-70%). Lingering low rain chances
  continue into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

The area remains between low pressure over the plains and one
over the southeast U.S. A warm air mass remains in place over
the area as highs in the lower 90s will occur today and again on
Tuesday across the area. Scattered storms have develop across
the eastern Ozarks this afternoon. The activity will continue to
develop and occur this afternoon into early evening mainly
along and east of Highway 65 today. The activity will start to
dissipate and decrease in coverage near sunset. Some uncapped
MUCAPE will remain in place across the area this evening but
lift will be much more limited this evening into tonight.
Therefore most locations should remain dry, but there will be a
low chance (<15%) for some isolated showers and storms tonight.

An unstable air mass in in place across the area, but wind shear
is weak so the storms are pulse in nature. The storm motion
will be slow and with precipitable water values around 1.5 to
1.75" across the area will allow for some brief heavy down
pours with the storms. There could also be a few strong to
marginally severe storms today with wind gusts the main risk
with a few of the strongest storms. The peak will be now through
around 5pm then the intensity and coverage should gradually
weaken/decrease with loss of surface heating.

The warm conditions will remain over the area again on Tuesday
with highs once again warming into the lower 90s. Scattered
storms are expected to develop again on Tuesday, mainly along
and west of highway 65 during the afternoon hours as instability
increases and the cap weakens. Brief down pours and localized
gusts winds up to 50 mph will be possible with a few of the
strongest storms Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

An upper level trough will move east across the plains mid week
and the region late week. Warmer conditions will occur again on
Wednesday ahead of the trough. Some scattered showers and storms
will be possible again on Wednesday, but coverage may be less
than today and tomorrow. A front will move through Thursday into
Thursday night, shower and storm chances (40-70%) will occur
with the front as it slowly moves through the region. Cooler
weather will occur behind the front with highs in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s will occur Thursday into the weekend. The
upper level trough will slowly move across the region allowing
some lingering showers to occur at times Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Scattered showers and storms are developing across portions of
the area early this afternoon and will continue to develop
across portions of the area into the early evening hours then
coverage will decrease this evening. There is a low chance for
some isolated convection developing late tonight into early
Tuesday morning. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop late Tuesday morning and especially the afternoon
hours Tuesday. A brief low visibilities due to rainfall,
lightning, and may gusty winds of 20 to 30kt will be possible
with any of the scattered storms this afternoon into early this
evening. Outside thunderstorms winds should generally be light
and variable.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.

Record High Temperatures:

September 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
KVIH: 96/1954

September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 15:
KSGF: 74/1936

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Nelson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
116 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161830-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
116 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon
into early this evening, with the best coverage generally along
and east of Highway 65. Brief heavy downpours and lightning will
occur with the storms. There will be the potential for some
strong to marginally severe storms with this activity this
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk with a few
of the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible again Tuesday
before more widespread rain arrives Wednesday through late week.
Total rainfall amounts are expected to remain low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

MOZ058-070-071-152000-
Maries MO-Phelps MO-Pulaski MO-
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MARIES...
NORTHEASTERN PULASKI AND NORTHERN PHELPS COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM
CDT...

At 230 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dixon, or 14 miles northwest of Rolla, moving southwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rolla, St. Robert, Dixon, Crocker, Doolittle, Newburg, Northwye,
Devil's Elbow, and Jerome.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 162 and 169, between
mile markers 171 and 180, and between mile markers 184 and 191.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 9162 3777 9208 3799 9231 3802 9223
      3802 9219 3804 9218 3815 9189
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 043DEG 20KT 3804 9200

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

MOZ055-068-152000-
Benton MO-Hickory MO-
232 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HICKORY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BENTON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 232 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hermitage. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake, Hermitage, Preston, Cross Timbers, and Fristoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 9314 3790 9331 3797 9343 3813 9340
      3815 9324 3809 9314
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 195DEG 3KT 3798 9328

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
255 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

MOZ079-080-152015-
Dallas MO-Polk MO-
255 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DALLAS AND
NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 255 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Buffalo, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Polk, Urbana, Halfway, Louisburg, Foose, Goodson, and
Pumpkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 9305 3767 9305 3756 9307 3755 9327
      3763 9332 3779 9330 3781 9326 3780 9319
      3783 9319 3784 9317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 359DEG 5KT 3772 9319

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
259 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

MOZ058-071-152015-
Maries MO-Phelps MO-
259 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN MARIES AND NORTHWESTERN
PHELPS COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Freeburg to Rolla. Movement was south at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rolla, Belle, Doolittle, Vienna, Vichy, and Northwye.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 184 and 192.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 9164 3816 9164 3815 9163 3796 9166
      3787 9185 3829 9205 3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 020DEG 5KT 3827 9187 3796 9175

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
302 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

MOZ055-068-152015-
Benton MO-Hickory MO-
302 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HICKORY AND
SOUTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Wheatland, or 7 miles northwest of Hermitage, moving
east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake, Hermitage, Wheatland, Cross Timbers, Quincy, and
Fristoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 9321 3798 9321 3791 9338 3797 9351
      3812 9350 3819 9337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 251DEG 6KT 3804 9340

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Price