Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Line of storms will move south through the area this afternoon
  into early this evening. There is a Slight (2 of 5) Risk for
  severe storms with this activity today. Heavy rainfall and a
  localized flooding risk will also occur with this activity.

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9PM for locations
  along and west of Highway 65 across extreme southeastern
  Kansas and southwestern Missouri.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms will move through the
  region tonight into Monday ahead of a cold front, but there is
  still uncertainty in exact timing and track of storms.
  Nevertheless, there is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for some of
  these storms to become severe.

- Some mild heat relief during the middle of next week following
  the frontal passage before long-range forecasts suggest heat
  and humidity returning for the 4th of July weekend and
  onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Thunderstorms occurred across portions of central Missouri
overnight into this morning, producing locally heavy rainfall.
These storms have dissipated but produced an outflow boundary
that is pushing south across south central Missouri this
afternoon and generate some scattered showers and storms. this
activity will continue for the next few hours then push off to
the south and east.

Additional storms have developed across central Kansas into
west central Missouri. These storms are forming into a cluster
and a line of storms will more south through the area this
afternoon into early this evening. An unstable air mass is in
place ahead of these storms across southeastern Kansas and
southwestern and southern Missouri. Instability is weaker across
central Missouri do to morning convection that impacted these
locations. The line of storms are expected to continue to move
south along the instability gradient across southeastern Kansas
and southwestern Missouri. Deep layer shear will not be overly
strong but given the amount of instability and Theta-E
gradients, there will be the potential for some strong to
severe wind gusts up to 50 to 60 mph with the strongest storms
within the line, mainly along and west of Highway 65 in the
better thermo. The storm flow is slow so locally heavy rainfall
will also occur with this activity. Storms will be possible east
of Highway 65, but with the weaker instability intensity should
be weaker overall but locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

This activity will move south through the area early this
evening and could see a break in the rain the rest of the
evening and tonight. There is some potential for additional
convection to develop north of the area and track south into the
area tonight into Monday morning. There are still questions on
if this activity develops and where it will track. The current
storms may limit instability some and the activity weakens as
it moves into the area or weakens prior to getting into the
area. A low level jet does develop again tonight into early
Monday and there may be enough uncapped elevated instability for
some potential for at least isolated storms to get into
portions of the area late tonight into Monday morning, but will
be dependent on exactly where storms develop to the north and
instability recovering.

An upper level shortwave trough and front will move east through
the area on Monday and additional showers and storms will
develop ahead of these features and move east across the area.
Heavy down pours will occur with the storms again but should
move off to the east fast enough to limit a widespread flooding
risk. Some gusty winds up to 50 to 60mph will be possible with
the storms especially east of Highway 65 Monday
afternoon/evening as better instability will develop with the
heating of the day.

Where sun occurs today and on Monday highs will warm into the
upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index values in the middle
90s to around 100. Clouds from the storms will limit
temperatures across portions of the area with highs in the
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A slightly less humid air mass will move into the area behind
the front for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the middle
80s. Mainly dry conditions will occur across the area on these
day as a drier air mass and weaker instability.

The upper level ridge will build back over the region late week
into next weekend with highs return to around the 90 degree mark
and lows in the lower 70s. Heat index values in the middle 90s
to around 100 will also return to the area late week into next
weekend. With humidity values increase there will be a 10 to 30%
chance for daily showers and storms across the area, but with
the ridge build back over the area limiting the widespread
rainfall chances across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

An outflow boundary is currently moving south through southern
Missouri early this afternoon from morning convection that
occurred across central Missouri. A brief wind shift to the
north will occur behind the outflow but winds will return to
south to southwesterly. The outflow is generated isolated
showers and storms as it pushes south through the area.

Additional showers and thunderstorms have developed from central
Kansas into northeastern Missouri. This activity will move
south/southeast through the area and could impact the TAF sites
this afternoon into this evening. MVFR to IFR conditions will
occur with the storms. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be
possible with the storms this afternoon.

After the storms to the north move through the area much of the
evening hours could be dry but it is also possible for some
isolated convection to linger through the evening hours.
Additional storms will develop north of the area and move south
tonight into Monday morning. There area questions on just how
far south and the exact track of this activity. A front will
also move east through the area on Monday, both bringing
additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
131 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301845-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
131 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

A line of showers and storms will move south through the area this
afternoon into early this evening, with the best coverage west of
Highway 65. East of Highway 65 scattered showers and storms will
continue to develop and move south through the area this
afternoon. Additional locally heavy rainfall will result in a
localized flooding risk across the area this afternoon into this
evening. A few of the stronger storms could produce hail up to
the size of pennies and wind gusts up to 50 to 60 mph.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are then possible tonight
into Monday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible
with this activity.

Heat Index values across southeast Kansas and extreme southwest
Missouri are forecast to reach the 95 to 100 range today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional showers and storms will develop across portions of the
the area on Monday. There is a marginal risk for localized flash
flooding in addition to wind gusts up to 50 to 60 mph with the
storms on Monday.

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances of 10 to 30 percent will
then occur late week into the weekend.

Heat Index values between 95 and 100 then return into the
Independence Day Weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation is not expected to be needed through
tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

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