Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
632 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Line of storms will continue to move south through central
  Missouri early this evening. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall
  and a localized flooding risk will occur with the strongest
  storms early this evening.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms will be possible late
  tonight into Monday ahead of a cold front, but there is still
  uncertainty in exact timing and track of storms. Nevertheless,
  there is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for some of these storms to
  become severe on Monday afternoon.

- Some mild heat relief during the middle of next week following
  the frontal passage before long-range forecasts suggest heat
  and humidity returning for the 4th of July weekend and
  onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Thunderstorms occurred across portions of central Missouri
overnight into this morning, producing locally heavy rainfall.
These storms have dissipated but produced an outflow boundary
that is pushing south across south central Missouri this
afternoon and generate some scattered showers and storms. this
activity will continue for the next few hours then push off to
the south and east.

Additional storms have developed across central Kansas into
west central Missouri. These storms are forming into a cluster
and a line of storms will more south through the area this
afternoon into early this evening. An unstable air mass is in
place ahead of these storms across southeastern Kansas and
southwestern and southern Missouri. Instability is weaker across
central Missouri do to morning convection that impacted these
locations. The line of storms are expected to continue to move
south along the instability gradient across southeastern Kansas
and southwestern Missouri. Deep layer shear will not be overly
strong but given the amount of instability and Theta-E
gradients, there will be the potential for some strong to
severe wind gusts up to 50 to 60 mph with the strongest storms
within the line, mainly along and west of Highway 65 in the
better thermo. The storm flow is slow so locally heavy rainfall
will also occur with this activity. Storms will be possible east
of Highway 65, but with the weaker instability intensity should
be weaker overall but locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

This activity will move south through the area early this
evening and could see a break in the rain the rest of the
evening and tonight. There is some potential for additional
convection to develop north of the area and track south into the
area tonight into Monday morning. There are still questions on
if this activity develops and where it will track. The current
storms may limit instability some and the activity weakens as
it moves into the area or weakens prior to getting into the
area. A low level jet does develop again tonight into early
Monday and there may be enough uncapped elevated instability for
some potential for at least isolated storms to get into
portions of the area late tonight into Monday morning, but will
be dependent on exactly where storms develop to the north and
instability recovering.

An upper level shortwave trough and front will move east through
the area on Monday and additional showers and storms will
develop ahead of these features and move east across the area.
Heavy down pours will occur with the storms again but should
move off to the east fast enough to limit a widespread flooding
risk. Some gusty winds up to 50 to 60mph will be possible with
the storms especially east of Highway 65 Monday
afternoon/evening as better instability will develop with the
heating of the day.

Where sun occurs today and on Monday highs will warm into the
upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index values in the middle
90s to around 100. Clouds from the storms will limit
temperatures across portions of the area with highs in the
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A slightly less humid air mass will move into the area behind
the front for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the middle
80s. Mainly dry conditions will occur across the area on these
day as a drier air mass and weaker instability.

The upper level ridge will build back over the region late week
into next weekend with highs return to around the 90 degree mark
and lows in the lower 70s. Heat index values in the middle 90s
to around 100 will also return to the area late week into next
weekend. With humidity values increase there will be a 10 to 30%
chance for daily showers and storms across the area, but with
the ridge build back over the area limiting the widespread
rainfall chances across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A line of storms is pushing south into Arkansas and will
continue to move across portions of south central Missouri early
this evening. An area of showers, with some embedded isolated
rumbles of thunder will occur for a few hours behind the storms
this evening. IFR condition will occur with the thunderstorms
with MVFR conditions with the shower activity.

Tonight into Monday morning there is low potential for some
isolated showers and storms to develop, then better chances for
showers and storms will occur with a frontal passaged later
Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Winds will generally be
out of the south tonight and will become westerly behind the
frontal passage on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
131 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301845-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
131 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

A line of showers and storms will move south through the area this
afternoon into early this evening, with the best coverage west of
Highway 65. East of Highway 65 scattered showers and storms will
continue to develop and move south through the area this
afternoon. Additional locally heavy rainfall will result in a
localized flooding risk across the area this afternoon into this
evening. A few of the stronger storms could produce hail up to
the size of pennies and wind gusts up to 50 to 60 mph.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are then possible tonight
into Monday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible
with this activity.

Heat Index values across southeast Kansas and extreme southwest
Missouri are forecast to reach the 95 to 100 range today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional showers and storms will develop across portions of the
the area on Monday. There is a marginal risk for localized flash
flooding in addition to wind gusts up to 50 to 60 mph with the
storms on Monday.

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances of 10 to 30 percent will
then occur late week into the weekend.

Heat Index values between 95 and 100 then return into the
Independence Day Weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation is not expected to be needed through
tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NE Boaz               37.05N 93.37W
06/29/2025                   Christian          MO   911 Call Center

            TREE ACROSS THE ROAD WAY BLOCKING THE ROAD.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Springfield MO
627 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Oldfield            37.02N 93.04W
06/29/2025                   Christian          MO   911 Call Center

            tree down across the road.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WNW Ridgedale         36.51N 93.28W
06/29/2025                   Taney              MO   Emergency Mngr

            *** 4 INJ ***
            Four injured by flying debris at the Thunder
            Ridge Nature Arena.

&&

SR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
651 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Eagle Rock         36.53N 93.73W
06/29/2025                   Barry              MO   Public

            8-10 IN diameter tree top broke, and landed
            near a camper.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
652 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     Flash Flood      1 NE Willow Springs     37.00N 91.96W
06/29/2025                   Howell             MO   Public

            Report from mPING, Street or road flooding
            or closed, Vehicles stranded.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 S Marionville         36.98N 93.63W
06/29/2025                   Lawrence           MO   911 Call Center

            line down on roadway. Time based on radar.

&&

TEO