Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
325 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Surface high pressure will work its way into the region
overnight. By Monday morning, moisture increases ahead of a
tropical system interacting with an upper disturbance. This will
keep shower chances around early next week before drying out
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Foggy conditions early will give way to clearing skies and
   dry conditions through the afternoon.

Surface high pressure will work its way into the Northeast from
the southern Great Lakes region starting tonight, and into
Sunday morning. This will keep Sunday a predominantly quiet and
dry day for most across the area as foggy skies early look to
dissipate to scattered to mostly clear skies by mid morning. As
current TD9 and future Imelda pushes north, and starts to
interact with the remnant upper level cut-off low over the Mid-
Atlantic states, some moisture looks to be pulled into the
southeast. This may lead to some dense cirrus clouds moving into
the VA and NC Piedmont on Sunday afternoon and evening; however,
rain chances from this tropical system does not look likely on
Sunday or Sunday evening across the region. Overall Sunday looks
to be the last dry day before a string of several wet days are
forecast through early next week.

With clearing skies on Sunday, temperatures will climb into the
mid to upper 70s for areas west of the Blue Ridge, and upper 70s
to low 80s east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Any impacts from Tropical Depression Nine will occur Monday into
Tuesday.

2) Heavy cloud cover keeps temperatures near to slightly below
normal.

3) Minor flooding will be possible due to potential heavy rainfall
east of the Blue Ridge.

Quiet conditions will continue across the area Sunday night with
only a stray shower possible in the far southern Piedmont areas.
Tropical Depression Nine is expected to have strengthened into at
least a Tropical Storm, which would be named Imelda. The system
would be moving NNW and approaching the Carolina coastlines Sunday
night into Monday. In the past couple of model runs, there has been
a significant shift as to where the system is expected to track once
it approaches the East Coast. Unlike yesterday, TD9 is now expected
to stall before making landfall and eventually turn east and out to
sea midweek. This would mean less impacts for our area, although
moisture advection combined with a stalled frontal boundary would
still provide some heavy rainfall across the area, particularly for
the eastern Piedmont and down into NC.

This shift in the track is due to TD9 taking longer to become
organized and meandering near the Bahamas. It is also now expected
to track north at a slower pace, which will allow Hurricane
Humberto, now a Category 4 storm, to be closer to the system and
have more influence on TD9, despite Humberto remaining out to sea.
At the same time, the deep trough that is over the Eastern CONUS is
expected to weaken and with the slower arrival of TD9, the system
will be less pulled to the north and west as the trough will be
weaker. This complex combination is why the track is now expected to
turn east and out to sea early next week. However, this does not
mean that there is no chance of a westward turn, as some models
still do show that possibility, but the chances have significantly
lowered. Should the track revert back west, then higher impacts and
very heavy rainfall could impact the area.

With all of that said, heavy rainfall of 1-2" will be possible east
of the Blue Ridge, with lighter amounts further west where the
moisture does not fully advect to. A marginal risk for excessive
rainfall is in place east of the Blue Ridge for Monday/Tuesday, as
flooding could occur in low-lying, urban, and flood-prone areas,
especially where recent heavy rains have fallen. Severe weather is
not expected during the period at this time.

Temperatures remain near normal but on the cooler side, due to heavy
cloud cover and rain. Highs will be in the 70s Monday, lowering into
the 60s/70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows remain mild, also due to the
clouds, in the 50s/60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Some uncertainty still exists in the forecast, dependent on TD9.

2) High pressure builds into the area and wedges in place late week.

3) Temperatures will be near to below average.

While there is some uncertainty regarding the forecast for next
week, recent trends in model guidance show that current Tropical
Depression Nine, likely a tropical storm next week, will begin to
head east and out to sea in the wake of Hurricane Humberto. Should
this occur, any residual showers will taper off by afternoon, with
drier air moving into the area. Winds will remain elevated, with NE
winds of 5-10 mph gusting to 15-20 mph at times through Thursday.
This is in part due to a very large and strong high pressure system
in Canada, which will quickly move down into the Northeastern US by
Thursday, wedging in east of the Appalachians and keeping quiet
weather across the entire forecast area through the end of the week
and into next weekend.

If TD9 does not take an eastward turn midweek, it could stall
offshore or even drift back west and head inland across the
Carolinas. While this scenario is looking less likely, it is still a
possibility. Should this occur, the forecast could be drastically
different, with showers continuing through late week, despite the
high moving in from the north. For now, this is not anticipated, but
until there is higher confidence in the long range track of TD9, it
remains possible.

Temperatures will be cool, thanks to cloud cover on Wednesday, and
the wedge for the late week. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s,
with the highest elevations perhaps staying in the 50s. Overnight
lows will mainly be in the 40s, with the highest elevations dipping
down into the 30s. Temperatures have been trending colder, so these
values could change.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Shower activity along and north of the 460 corridor is expected
to finally push north and east of the area through this
afternoon, which will also start to raise ceilings across the
area. While ceilings are raising, and cloud cover is
dissipating enough instability is developing that some shower
and thunderstorm activity is developing in eastern TN, which
looks to push east through the evening. This will lead to some
thunderstorm potential for BCB, BLF, and DAN this afternoon and
evening. These storms may cause brief periods of MVFR to IFR
restrictions at these three terminals. After these storms
dissipate this evening, IFR to LIFR restrictions look to develop
at all terminals overnight. VFR conditions look to return to
all terminals by the 13-14 UTC timeframe. With high pressure
moving into the region overnight, VFR conditions look to remain
through the end of the TAF period on Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain may return for Monday and Tuesday as easterly flow brings
moisture back into the area from the Atlantic Coast. By Monday,
a tropical cyclone will be threatening the southeast Atlantic
Coast. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to the track of a
tropical cyclone beyond Monday, so aviation interests should
keep alert to the forecast along the southeast coast. While
confidence is low in the exact impacts, heavy rainfall could be
possible at times through midweek, which would cause widespread
sub-VFR flight conditions for all terminals.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB/PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
222 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-281830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
222 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall that
may lead to flash flooding through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is potential for heavy rain early next week, but this is
highly dependent on the track and intensity of a tropical system
that is expected to develop in the Western Atlantic this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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