Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Blacksburg, VA

971 
WGUS71 KRNK 270923
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
523 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

VAC037-271330-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0076.000000T0000Z-250927T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Charlotte VA-
523 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM EDT THIS 
MORNING FOR CENTRAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY...

At 523 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated that heavy rain has exited 
the warned area, leaving only light to moderate rainfall. However, 
rainfall totals of between 3 and 4 inches fell earlier this morning 
in less than a 2 hour period, particularly across the Twittys Creek 
and Roanoke Creek basins. Flash flooding of these creeks may be 
occurring as they both drain toward the Staunton River.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Charlotte Court House...           Drakes Branch...
Saxe...

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Bentleys Branch, Gilliam Branch, Ash Camp Creek, Roanoke Creek, 
  Bush Ford Branch, Reeses Creek, Horsepen Creek and Little Horsepen 
  Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is 
harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on X.

&&

LAT...LON 3688 7869 3689 7870 3698 7868 3704 7864
      3706 7855 3697 7853 3692 7862

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

16

681 
WGUS71 KRNK 271217
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
817 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

VAC037-271227-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.W.0076.000000T0000Z-250927T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Charlotte VA-
817 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Ponding of water on roads may continue. Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1200 PM EDT for portions of 
north central North Carolina and Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3688 7869 3689 7870 3698 7868 3704 7864
      3706 7855 3697 7853 3692 7862

$$

VFJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
739 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped across the
Tidewater of Virginia into the Carolinas. This will keep shower
and storm chances around into the weekend with a wave of low
pressure bringing the better rain chances late tonight into
Saturday. Next week, a potential tropical system will move
toward the southeast coast and could bring more rain to our area
during the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Moderate to heavy showers possible tonight especially
along/east of the Blue Ridge.

Slow moving showers/embedded thunderstorms this evening across
the NC mountains/foothills reaching up into Carroll County, VA.
There is an embedded vort tracking across this area this evening
coinciding with an area of upper divergence.

Convective allowing models start to weaken this area over the
next few hours and ramp up showers/few storms to the east
through midnight. Update forecast reflects this with lesser
thunderstorm chances as cloud cover has kept instability
limited. Still 500-1000 J/kg kept may keep a storm or two around
especially in the southern VA piedmont into NC, with less storm
chances further north.

Precip water values run from 1 to 1.2 inches across southeast WV
into the Alleghanys/southern Shenandoah Valley to 1.5 to 1.8
inches across southside VA into NC. Will have to watch for
training of heavier showers/storms and potential for flooding,
but antecedent conditions are dry so not seeing any signals for
a flood watch.

Previous discussion...

Most of the area is quiet this afternoon, though showers and a
few thunderstorms are beginning to develop in the southern VA
mountains down into NC. This continues through the afternoon
into this evening as a low pressure system develops along a
stalled frontal boundary draped across the Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas. This low pressure wave will move north, bringing
widespread showers/storms through the area overnight, with the
best chances along/east of the Blue Ridge. Rainfall will be
heavy, with over an inch expected along the Blue Ridge, and
locally higher amounts in the heaviest convection. Patchy fog
will be possible tomorrow morning, with dreary conditions
persisting for much of the day. The heaviest rainfall moves out
mid-morning, though scattered showers and a few storms will
continue until late afternoon as the disturbance moves off to
the northeast and the stalled front drifts east towards the
coast.

Severe weather is not expected during the period, but flash flooding
will be possible with slow-moving, heavy rainfall. A slight risk for
excessive rainfall is in place across southern VA down into NC
today, and for tomorrow for the eastern Piedmont. A marginal
risk is across the entire area for tonight and again on
Saturday. Isolated flash flooding could occur in urban and low-
lying, flood-prone areas.

Temperatures this afternoon will be slightly above normal, thanks to
some clearing of skies. Highs will be in the 70s for the mountains
with low 80s in the Piedmont. Overnight lows will stay mild, as rain
and clouds move in, mainly in the 60s. On Saturday, highs will be
cooler thanks to the heavy cloud cover, in the 70s area-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Sunday will be the quietest day of the period.

2) The first impacts from Invest 94L could reach the area late
Monday.

Rain will be clearing out of the area Saturday night, with quieter
weather returning to the region heading into Sunday. The stalled
frontal boundary will be along the East Coast, and drier air will
limit convection Sunday afternoon. Scattered storms will still be
possible, thanks to the upper trough remaining overhead along with
diurnal heating effects. This continues through Sunday night as the
attention turns towards Invest 94L, which is expected to then be a
tropical system and moving towards the Carolina coastlines.

Exact details about Invest 94L are still uncertain, as the system
has yet to develop. Potential tropical moisture, enhanced by 94L,
could be moving into the area on Monday, with heavy rainfall
expected, particularly for our southern Piedmont areas. Monday night
could be the height of heavy rainfall across the area, though recent
model runs suggest 94L may stall off to our south, with the moisture
advection being the largest impact for our area.

Whether the system makes it fully into our area or not, heavy
rainfall is possible late Monday. Rainfall totals of 1-2"+ is
possible east of the Blue Ridge, with locally higher amounts
possible. Flash flooding could occur, as with any tropical system,
and the entire area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Temperatures will be near normal Sunday, due to less cloud cover.
Highs will be in the 70s area-wide. Highs Monday will fall a few
degrees, with 60s for the mountains and low 70s elsewhere. Overnight
lows remain mild, in the 50s/60s each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Low confidence in rainfall potential through midweek.

2) Showers/storms possible through midweek, drier end to the week.

3) Temperatures will be below normal through late week.

By Tuesday, our area could still be seeing impacts from Invest 94L
as it likely stalls over the Carolinas. With the low confidence in
track and strength, it is difficult to forecast how high or low the
impacts will be across the Mid-Atlantic. What there is high
confidence in, is that tropical moisture will advect into the area
at a minimum through midweek, keeping showers/storms possible
Tuesday and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall could occur across parts of
the area, all dependent on the track and strength of 94L. Until the
system has developed, confidence will remain low in the forecast.
For now, PoPs are around 50% on Tuesday, lowering to 20-30%
Wednesday as a strong high pressure from the north blocks the
northward advancement of 94L and begins to clear out the region.

There is also low confidence in the late week forecast, as the
remnants of 94L could linger across the Southeastern US and
potentially move into our area again late week. Models do indicate
that the strong high over the Northeast US will wedge down east of
the Appalachians and keep cooler weather in place. This forecast
could drastically change depending on the track of 94L.

Temperatures will be below normal, with highs in the 60s/70s
midweek, cooling into the 60s area-wide late week. Overnight lows
stay mild Wednesday morning, in the 50s/60s, before dramatically
falling late week into the 40s. Some of the higher elevations may
fall into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Friday...

Expect deteriorating conditions across most terminals later this
evening and especially overnight into Saturday morning. Showers
will also become widespread mainly form ROA/BCB east through the
evening into the overnight while cigs drop to MVFR to IFR and
vsbys also drop at times to the 1 to 4sm range in heavier
downpours.

Thinking limited instability so have no thunder in the tafs at
this time. Will see slow improvement late Saturday morning from
ROA east to LYH/DAN, while BLF improves quicker/sooner to MVFR
then VFR.

Confidence is high for sub-VFR late tonight-Sat morning, but
lower on vsbys and rainfall impacts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Looks like showers lessen Saturday night into Sunday and this
may be the better time for aviation before tropical moisture
potentially brings lower cigs/vsbys and rain early next week.
There is still uncertainty on where this tropical system will
track after Monday, so aviation interests should keep alert to
the forecast along the southeast coast. While confidence is low
in the exact impacts, heavy rainfall will could be possible at
times through midweek, which would cause widespread sub-VFR
flight conditions for all terminals.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP
NEAR TERM...JCB/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
252 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

NCZ004>006-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-280700-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
252 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and
west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

     Flood Watch through Noon today. Areas of excessive rainfall
     possible with potential for flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is potential for heavy rain early next week, but this is
highly dependent on the track and intensity of a tropical system
that is expected to develop in the Western Atlantic this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-280700-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-
Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
252 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia
and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Localized heavy rain possible today with marginal risk for excessive
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is potential for heavy rain early next week, but this is
highly dependent on the track and intensity of a tropical system
that is expected to develop in the Western Atlantic this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
958 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSE North Wilkesboro  36.16N 81.14W
09/26/2025                   Wilkes             NC   County Official

            Flash flooding along Main Street, Boone
            Trail Road and U.S. 421 near Winkler Mill
            Road. Multiple cars stalled in water.

&&

WHP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1008 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 PM     Flood            3 SSE Flat Rock         36.46N 80.56W
09/26/2025                   Surry              NC   911 Call Center

            Standing water on Holly Springs Road near US
            52.

&&

WHP