Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
157 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds and locally heavy rain with storms ahead of a cold
front this afternoon and evening. Dry weather finally returns
Friday into the weekend, amid building heat concerns heading
into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

Key Message:

* Gusty showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain ahead of a
  cold front this afternoon

Convective activity associated with a prefrontal trough is exiting
to the east as additional activity associated with the surface cold
front approaches from the west at this hour. While deep layer shear
is around 40KTs, lack of decent mid-level lapse rates coupled with
only filtered insolation through a broken cumulus deck is expected
to limit destabilization of surface based parcels in advance of the
cold front this afternoon (perhaps 1000J/kg MLCAPE). Still, locally
gusty winds will be possible with the stronger cores along with
rainfall rates 1-2 inches per hour. Storms will generally be
progressive, limiting potential water issues. Where the front
is more west to east oriented, currently aiming toward the Metro
Valley storm motions will be nearly parallel with the front
yielding some limited opportunity for training. Given still
quite wet ground conditions, some isolated high water issues are
possible.

Drier air sweeps into the region behind the front this evening
putting any convection to bed for the next several days.

Some patchy fog will be possible overnight where any heavier swaths
of rain fall, mainly confined to the valleys.

Despite the 'cold' front passage temperatures on Friday will
actually be warmer than today, in the low to mid 80s across the
lowlands amid weak west-southwesterly flow and full sunshine
into a drier airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

Key Message:

* Dry and less muggy conditions through the weekend week amid
  building heat

Subtropical ridging aloft builds back to the west through the short
period period commencing a period of hot and initially less muggy
weather through the weekend. High temperatures across the lowlands
on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
increasing to the lower to mid 90s by Sunday. Low level moisture
advection out of the Gulf could be a little overdone by central
guidance on Sunday (dew points in the lower 70s across the Middle
Ohio Valley), but heat indices could still approach the triple
digits in spots. Subsidence should effectively cap surface based
parcels yielding a day forecast through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

Key Message:

* Heat impacts build into the new work week amid increasingly
  muggy conditions

Monday through Thursday

Low level moisture is expected to progressively build as weak flow
around surface high pressure slowly advects Gulf moisture up the
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys. Central guidance may be slightly over
predicting the level of moisture with widespread dew points
approaching the mid 70s, but even with more conservative values
should still see heat impacts building with daytime heat indices
across the lower elevations in the low triple digits. Overnight lows
in the lower to mid 70s will not provide much relief from the heat
for populations without air conditioning. Central guidance PoPs
through the week reflect more of a drier solution than its
deterministic forecast, as the aforementioned dew points would
likely yield uncapped surface parcels during the afternoon hours. If
afternoon airmass convection can materialize the main threat would
be locally damaging wind gusts with core collapses given steep low
level lapse rates and locally very heavy rain given very weak flow
through the column with precipitable water values exceeding 95th
percentile values, approaching 2 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front cross west
to east through this afternoon with local reductions to IFR in heavy
rain - otherwise primarily VFR conditions are expected through late
this evening. Activity is largely expected to exit east by 00Z.
Patchy fog will be possible overnight tonight, especially where any
heavier rain falls this afternoon into this evening, but not
expecting any widespread fog.

Winds generally west-southwesterly 10-15KTs with gusts into the mid
20s ahead of the front, shifting more west-northwesterly behind the
front late this afternoon before going light overnight. Winds with
convection will be primarily westerly and gusty.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convective impacts at any given
terminals could vary by an hour or so. Fog could materialize at
more terminals than currently advertised overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    L    H    H    M    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
341 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515-517-519-521-200830-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-
341 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of and along a
front. Damaging winds and localized flooding are the main concerns
for today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat indices may rise above 100 degrees each afternoon from Sunday
through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ516-518-520-522>526-200830-
Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Fayette-Southeast Nicholas-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
341 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of and
along a front. Damaging winds and localized flooding are the main
concerns for today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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