Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
953 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms will continue, as a strong cold front
crosses east this afternoon, increasing the potential for
severe weather. Drier Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Thursday...

Trimmed categorical PoPs back to isolated/scattered coverage
this morning to better represent current conditions with the
best coverage along a prefrontal trough at this hour. Expect
this feature to largely clear the forecast area before we can
realize any significant instability. The main focus for the best
coverage showers and storms today will this afternoon along the
cold front, currently draped from from roughly PAH to CLE.

As of 627 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop as a cold
front crosses the area today. Previous forecast remains on
track.

As of 225 AM Thursday...

A cold front will cross the area from west to east this
afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, very humid airmass
and unstable conditions will promote heavy showers and
thunderstorms. Latest CAMs suggest showers and storms firing up
along and east of the OH River as early as 9-10 AM Thursday
morning.

The front arrives at the peak afternoon heating hours. With deep
layered shear up to 40 knots, expect these showers to move faster
than previous days, enough to prevent flash flooding. However, some
soils are already saturated and training of cells may produce
flooding problems. WPC highlights northern WV under a Slight risk
for excessive rainfall, while the rest of the area remains
under marginal risk. In addition, some storms could be strong to
severe with damaging winds being the main threat.

The cold front exits this evening with lingering rain showers ending
over the eastern mountains tonight. A surface high pressure builds
behind the front to provide drier weather conditions tonight. Areas
of dense fog may develop overnight under clear skies and near calm
flow, mainly over areas that received rainfall, and over areas
where the lower atmosphere manages to decouple.

Abundant cloudiness and cooling showers will keep afternoon
temperatures into the lower 80s across the lowlands, ranging into
the upper 60s higher elevations. Fresher airmass behind the front
will provide near normal lows tonight, generally in the upper 50s
across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

Key Points:
* Drier as high pressure builds late this week.
* Temperatures become hotter this weekend.

Quieter weather finally returns as high pressure and an upper
level ridge build into the area behind the front on Friday. Drier
conditions then persist as upper ridging slides north and east,
becoming centered over the middle Ohio Valley this weekend.

The work week closes out on a seasonably warm note, then
temperatures become hot this weekend. Highs on Saturday are expected
to range from mid 70s to upper 80s over the higher terrain, and
upper 80s to low 90s in the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

Key Points:
* A heat wave is expected from Sunday through mid week.
* Afternoon showers and storms possible towards mid week.

An upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered directly
overhead through the weekend and into the first part of the work
week. Temperatures are expected to trend hotter beneath this ridge,
with enough humidity present to propel heat indices into the triple
digits across much of the lowlands each afternoon. The heat is
likely to impact heat-sensitive individuals, as well as anyone
exposed to the sun for longer periods of time.

A west to east oriented front sprawls across the Great Lakes and
northeastern states while ridging persists over the CWA through mid
week; however, moisture transported into the area may allow
isolated afternoon showers and storms to reemerge Tuesday or
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 627 AM Thursday...

Guidance suggests showers and thunderstorms developing along and
east of the OH River late this morning, in response of a crossing
cold front. Periods of IFR conditions under moderate to heavy
downpours will be possible.

A cold front arrives to the OH River roughly by noon, and then
pushes east through this evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front, under
an unstable and juicy environment. VFR conditions will prevail
outside showers and storms. Brief periods of IFR visibility will
be possible under heavier showers or storms. Gusty winds up to
22 knots will accompany the heavier storms.

Light S-SW winds will become gusty by mid morning. Stronger
wind gusts can be expected nearby heavier thunderstorms. Winds
should pick up a little behind the cold front. Winds will become
light and variable later tonight, or even calm where the
atmosphere manages to decouple. IFR/LIFR conditions under dense
fog or low stratus is anticipated overnight tonight into Friday
morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers/storms today
may vary from forecast. Fog development may be more widespread than
anticipated.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/20
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
341 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515-517-519-521-200830-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-
341 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of and along a
front. Damaging winds and localized flooding are the main concerns
for today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat indices may rise above 100 degrees each afternoon from Sunday
through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ516-518-520-522>526-200830-
Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Fayette-Southeast Nicholas-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
341 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of and
along a front. Damaging winds and localized flooding are the main
concerns for today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.