River Flood Warning 8, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
942 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Potent, moisture-laden low pressure systems will impact the
area today, this weekend, and early to mid next week, each with
heavy rain, and mixed wintry precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 940 AM Thursday...

Have cancelled the Flood Watch behind the line, but messaging
should continue to highlight the many Flood Warnings that remain
in effect.

As of 850 AM Thursday...

Have updated the forecast to increase chances of precipitation
along the line and decrease it behind the line.

As of 615 AM Thursday...

Widespread flooding is occurring across much of central WV and
the tri-state area of OH/KY/WV. Expect this to persist for at
least a few more hours as rain continues this morning before a
line of thunderstorms passes through by mid-morning, likely
putting an end to precipitation for much of the area today.
Some of these storms could contain strong to damaging winds and
small hail with a non-zero tornado threat present. Otherwise,
the previous forecast/discussion remains on track.

As of 155 AM Thursday...

A very sharp temperature inversion was noted early this morning,
with SE Ohio and portions of northern WV hovering at or just below
freezing at the surface and an elevated warm layer, providing us
with a setup for continued freezing rain into the early morning
hours Thursday. Winter Weather Advisories are currently in place in
these areas to account for the ongoing risk of accumulating ice
(primarily on elevated surfaces) into early this morning before a
transition to all rain is expected over the next couple hours.

The Ice Storm Warning and adjacent Winter Weather Advisory also
continues across the NE WV mountains until early this morning where
southeasterly surface flow has trapped cold air against the
mountains and in the adjacent higher terrain. Ongoing warm air
advection should erode any risk for continued ice accumulation
likely by 12Z this morning. Regardless, ice accumulations will
likely result in hazardous travel, downed trees, and power outages
through the early morning hours.

Elsewhere, elevated instability in response to a plume of theta-e
advection has situated itself across western and southern portions
of the forecast area and has generated modest MLCAPE around 500-1000
J/kg, mid-level lapse rates across southwest portions of our
area remain rather modest at around 6-6.5 C/km as well. Warm air
advection will continue to infiltrate further into the area as
the warm frontal boundary pushes northeastward this morning,
with some surface based convection possible as well across far
southwestern portions of our area, supporting at least a risk
for damaging winds.

SPC has placed us under a MRGL risk for severe thunderstorms
overnight into early Thursday for this area with a primary threat of
damaging winds, with large hail and a non-zero tornado threat given
strong shear present and ESRH in excess of 200 m2/s2. Short term
CAMs show an increase in convective coverage expected over the next
couple of hours just to our west which will congeal some into a
broken ne-sw oriented line before traversing portions of our area
Thursday morning, with the best chance for strong storms here likely
being around or just after daybreak.

With these widespread showers/storms, heavy rain is also likely to
continue which could lead to flooding concerns overnight into early
afternoon Thursday, much of the area is highlighted by WPC for a
MRGL risk for excessive rainfall today. Over an inch of rain has
fallen across much of the western portions of our area where soils
are already saturated from previous rainfall and continued
precipitation overnight will only exacerbate the risk for flooding.
There is a Flood Watch in effect for much of our area until this
afternoon to account for this risk, with an additional inch or more
of rain expected on top of what has fallen.

Chances for precipitation will diminish from west to east by early
afternoon Thursday after the cold front pushes through the area.
Expecting dry conditions for most of the area Thursday night with
some patchy light rain/drizzle possible across the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 AM Thursday...

After a brief break for much of Friday, another potent low will move
into the area over the weekend, providing another soaking rain to
the area, and creating the potential for another round of hydro
issues. As with previous system, precipitation could start off as a
wintry mix across parts of the north, but is overall looking to be
relatively short lived, before changing over to rain area wide as
southerly flow  increases. Low pressure will continue to move
northeast of the area on Saturday night into Sunday, with rain
continuing across the area. Frontal boundary associated with the low
will push east through the area early Sunday, with colder, or
perhaps even falling temperatures during the day Sunday, and a
change over to a brief period of wintry precipitation possible,
mainly across the higher terrain, before moisture exits the area.
Winds will be on the increase Saturday night into Sunday in the CAA
regime, which could lead to downed trees in the saturated
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 322 AM Thursday...

After another brief break across much of the area during the day
Sunday into Monday, before additional disturbances form across the
southern plains and, move northeast into the area, advecting high
moisture content air into the area. At this point, there is much
uncertainty regarding this period, but periods of wintry weather,
along with periods of all rain are looking to be possible, perhaps
even at least light accumulations are possible even across parts of
the lowlands at times, but it will be a constant battle between cold
overnight lows, and daytime highs above freezing. This will be
another period of heightened hydro concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 612 AM Thursday...

Rain with embedded thunderstorms and patchy areas of freezing
rain have overspread the entire area. Most sites are at least
MVFR with intermittent IFR/LIFR VISBY/ceilings in
rain/thunderstorms. Thunderstorms could contain small hail and
strong winds through this morning.

Some breaks in the clouds will likely start to become apparent
late in the period where locations will likely drift in and out
of MVFR at times after the frontal passage. MVFR/IFR may persist
across the mountains at BKW and EKN for a little longer.

Gusty southwest winds of around 10-20 kts are expected through
this afternoon before diminishing after the frontal passage
today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of IFR/LIFR ceilings/visibility
could differ from the forecast based on precipitation coverage
and intensity.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible Saturday into Saturday night with heavy
precipitation.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ015-024>026-
     033-034-515>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...28/SL
NEAR TERM...28/RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
939 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013-014-016>020-
027>032-039-040-071445-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-
Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-
Barbour-
939 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central, northern, southern and western West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another soaking rain is expected this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ015-024>026-033-034-515>526-071445-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Kanawha-Mingo-Logan-Boone-McDowell-Wyoming-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
939 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast, southeast and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another soaking rain is expected this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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