River Flood Warning 12, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
110 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
System skirts south tonight. Potent, moisture-laden systems
will impact the area this weekend, and early to mid next week,
each with heavy rain, and mixed wintry precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Thursday...

Have cancelled the rest of the Flood Watch as significant
precipitation has moved out of the area.

Another wave will affect southwest Virginia and southern West
Virginia tonight. Models showing decent CAPE near 1000 in
southwest Virginia with precipitable water values over 1.1
inches. With the ground saturated from rain received today,
there are concerns for flooding.

A high pressure system will then build into the area on Friday,
providing dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 109 PM Thursday...

Another system will approach from the southwest early Saturday
morning with a warm front lifting northward. This will create more
widespread rain across the area Saturday. At the time of this
writing, models are predicting less rainfall than what was seen this
morning, with rainfall amounts generally 0.25-0.75" across the
region. However, given the wet soils and current flooding issues, it
won't take much additional rainfall to lead to more problems. We
will be watching Saturday closely.

A trailing cold front will pass through the area west to east early
Sunday morning, with drying occurring behind it. Mild temperatures
Saturday (lower to middle 50s lowlands, 40s mountains) will
transition to the upper 30s and lower 40s Sunday behind the cold
front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 109 PM Thursday...

Models are indicating a surface boundary and a weak upper-level
disturbance may create light rain and snow Monday. This looks like a
weak signal overall, so we went with small chances in the forecast
package.

Rain and snow chances increase significantly Monday night and
Tuesday as a stronger wave of low pressure approaches from the
Mississippi River Valley. Precipitation type, QPF, and accumulation
all remain uncertain at this time, as all of these things will
highly depend on the track of low pressure. However, given the very
saturated ground over the past few weeks, we will be on alert for
additional flooding potential. Currently, we are thinking that
precipitation may start as snow for a large portion of the area
Monday night with overnight lows in the lower 30s. Then, snow may
transition to rain Tuesday for most of the lowlands as temperatures
rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s, with mainly snow in the
mountains. As low pressure exits Tuesday night, one final batch of
snow may be possible with cold air wrapping around on the backside.

The overall pattern looks to remain active through the end of the
work week. There may be a brief break in activity Wednesday before
another system approaches again by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1145 AM Thursday...

MVFR ceilings with some IFR will gradually raise this afternoon
to mainly MVFR. Another system will cause some showers and
thunderstorms across southwest Virginia and southern West
Virginia tonight, with MVFR to IFR restrictions. Other areas
will gradually improve overnight to VFR. All areas are expected
to improve to VFR by early Friday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving conditions this
afternoon and tonight could vary. Timing and intensity of
restrictions tonight over sw VA and southern WV could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible Saturday into Saturday night with heavy
precipitation.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1225 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-071730-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1225 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Flood Warnings remain for parts of the area. Motorists should use
extreme caution and be prepared for water or debris on roadway.
Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another soaking rain is expected this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
106 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     Flood            3 SSW Webster Springs   38.44N 80.42W
02/06/2025                   Webster            WV   911 Call Center

            Flooding reported along Gauley River Rd.

&&

FMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
110 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SW Lake Hope State Pa 39.31N 82.38W
02/06/2025                   Vinton             OH   911 Call Center

            Tree down on lines in the road.

&&

FMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
111 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     Flood            6 NNW Harts             38.10N 82.18W
02/06/2025                   Lincoln            WV   Public

            Video shows multiple roads covered by water.

&&

JRM