Alert archive / Virginia / Flash Flood Warnings in 2025

Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Charleston, WV

February 15, 2025Buchanan County, Dickenson County, Virginia

NWS Charleston, WV issued this flash flood warning at Feb 15, 2025, 12:55 PM EST for Buchanan County, Dickenson County, Virginia. It was in force for 9 hr. 58 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 15, 2025, 12:55 PM EST (17:55 UTC)
Expired
Feb 15, 2025, 9:45 PM EST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Charleston, WV
Area
Storm-based polygon
Emergency
Flash flood emergency
Flood severity
None

Counties Buchanan County, VA, Dickenson County, VA

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 15, 1:01 PM ESTFLOOD3 Ssw Haysi, VARoad Branch is flooding Road Branch Road and Jack Childress Holw.
Feb 15, 1:08 PM ESTFLOOD2 Sse Haysi, VARakes Ridge Rd & Sandlick Rd is flooded.
Feb 15, 1:09 PM ESTFLOOD2 Sse Breaks Interstate, VABreaks Park Rd is flooding from Sugar Branch Creek.
Feb 15, 1:15 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD8 Ene Grundy, VAHigh water in the 9200 block of Slate Creek Rd near Grundy.
Feb 15, 1:16 PM ESTFLASH FLOODClintwood, VAChase street is flooding.
Feb 15, 1:39 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD8 Ene Grundy, VASlate Creek is flooding.
Feb 15, 1:44 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD4 S Haysi, VALick Creek Road is flooded and impassable.
Feb 15, 1:46 PM ESTFLASH FLOODClintwood, VADickenson Hwy and Clintwood Main St is flooded.
Feb 15, 1:50 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD5 Wsw Hurley, VAHigh water in the 2700 block of Paw Paw Rd near Hurley.
Feb 15, 1:54 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD4 Ese Haysi, VALaurel Branch road is being flooded by Laurel Branch.
Feb 15, 2:18 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD5 Wnw Davenport, VAFlooding on Priest Fork.
Feb 15, 2:24 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD3 E Haysi, VAFlash Flooding on Dickenson Hwy and Greenbrier Rd.
Feb 15, 2:36 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD3 Ene Grundy, VAFlash flooding from Slate Creek.
Feb 15, 2:45 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD4 W Davenport, VAFlooding in multiple spots of Priest Fork near Bee, VA.
Feb 15, 2:50 PM ESTFLASH FLOODClintwood, VAFlooding of roadway Dickenson Hwy and Clintwood Main St. Roundabout is closed.
Feb 15, 2:50 PM ESTFLASH FLOODClintwood, VAShort St and surrounding roads are shut down due to high water.
Feb 15, 2:50 PM ESTFLASH FLOODClintwood, VAWater covering Power House Hollow. Road is impassable and is shut down at this time.
Feb 15, 2:50 PM ESTFLASH FLOODClintwood, VAWater is out of its banks in nearby creek and covering the road of Fox Town Rd and Old Rd in Clintwood, VA.
Feb 15, 2:51 PM ESTFLASH FLOODClintwood, VAChase St in Clintwood is shutdown due to high water.
Feb 15, 2:55 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD4 Nw Clintwood, VAWater covering the roadway in the area of 1100 Cutter Creek.
Feb 15, 2:55 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD4 S Haysi, VA911 center reports road is completely impassable in the area of 4900 Lick Creek Rd near Clinchco, VA.
Feb 15, 2:55 PM ESTFLASH FLOODClintwood, VAWater all across the roads in the area of Pioneer St and Jessee St.
Feb 15, 3:00 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD2 Sse Breaks Interstate, VA4370 Breaks Park Rd in Haysi, VA roadway is flooded.
Feb 15, 3:00 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD3 Ese Hurley, VAGetting reports of high water in multiple spots along Rustic Rd near Hurley.
Feb 15, 3:00 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD5 Nnw Grundy, VABuchanan County 911 center reports high water 5500 block of Home Creek Rd near Grundy. Water is getting into homes.
Feb 15, 3:05 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD2 Sse Hurley, VAMcKracken Rd at Hurley Rd is completely impassable due to high water.
Feb 15, 3:09 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD6 Ene Grundy, VAHome is about to be flooded in the White Oak Rd and Slate Creek Rd areas.
Feb 15, 3:11 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD2 Ne Hurley, VAHouse flooded from flash flooding.
Feb 15, 3:15 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD1 S Grundy, VAHigh water in the 1000 block of Watkins Branch Rd.
Feb 15, 3:30 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD4 E Breaks Interstate, VAWater entering a structure from flash flooding.
Feb 15, 3:40 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD8 Ene Grundy, VAReports of high water and people trapped on Grandview Rd off of Slate Creek Rd.
Feb 15, 3:50 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD3 Ene Grundy, VAMercury Dr off of Slate Creek Rd near Grundy is inundated.
Feb 15, 3:50 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD3 Sse Hurley, VAHurley Rd at Treetop Rd is completely underwater.
Feb 15, 4:10 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD3 Ene Grundy, VASignificant flash flooding ongoing along Slate Creek flooding homes. Water rescues underway.
Feb 15, 4:15 PM ESTFLASH FLOODClintwood, VARoad closure of Ralph Cummins Ave at Wave Dr due to high water.
Feb 15, 4:21 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD5 Ene Grundy, VA5400 block of Slate Creek Rd is underwater with people trapped.
Feb 15, 4:22 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD4 Ene Grundy, VADandelion Rd is underwater with residents trapped.
Feb 15, 4:27 PM ESTFLASH FLOODHaysi, VASplashdam Rd near the 110 block in Haysi, VA is shutdown. Road is impassable.
Feb 15, 4:40 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD5 Se Hurley, VAHigh water with possible resident trapped on Dan Branch Rd in Hurley, VA.
Feb 15, 4:42 PM ESTFLOODHurley, VAReceived a picture of the legacy bank on Hurley Road halfway underwater.
Feb 15, 4:45 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD6 Ne Grundy, VABuchanan County 911 center reports high water with people trapped along Stone Coal Rd.
Feb 15, 4:48 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD5 Nw Grundy, VAHigh water at Stiltners Bottom Rd with water almost reaching homes.
Feb 15, 4:49 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD4 Ene Haysi, VAHigh water 2600 block of Greenbrier Rd near Haysi, VA. Some residents may be trapped and in need of rescue.
Feb 15, 5:05 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD6 Ene Grundy, VAGetting reports of high water on Pheasant Run Rd due to Slate Creek flooding. There are reports of someone stuck in a truck near the 1140 block.
Feb 15, 5:23 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD1 Ssw Hurley, VALesters Fork Rd is flooded from Lesters Fork.
Feb 15, 5:37 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD2 Nw Hurley, VAHigh water on Race Fork Rd and Hurley Rd. Residents are trapped.
Feb 15, 5:40 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD1 Wnw Grundy, VABuchanan County 911 center reports high water getting into homes 23900 block of Riverside Dr near the volunteer FD.
Feb 15, 5:40 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD4 Nw Grundy, VAGetting reports of vehicles stuck with people inside in the 28200 block of Riverside Dr in Grundy.
Feb 15, 6:27 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD4 E Breaks Interstate, VARoad is Washed out.
Feb 15, 6:31 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD3 Ene Grundy, VACatastrophic flash flooding occurring with evacuations ongoing.
Feb 15, 6:33 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD6 Ene Grundy, VASeveral people stranded on hillsides along Slate Creek Road. Catastrophic Flash Flooding.
Feb 15, 7:07 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD3 Nw Hurley, VAHigh water in the 2000 block of Cedar Branch Rd in Hurley. Reports of people trapped in the area.
Feb 15, 7:23 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD6 Ene Grundy, VAFlash Flooding, continued evacuations along Slate Creek rd.
Feb 15, 7:24 PM ESTFLASH FLOODClintwood, VARalph Cummins Ave & Wave Dr.
Feb 15, 7:34 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD8 Ese Vansant, VAWater rescue along Contrary Creek.
Feb 15, 8:10 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD5 Se Hurley, VAHigh water and people trapped 4500 block of Knox Creek Dr in Hurley.
Feb 15, 9:40 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD2 Ese Clintwood, VARush Creek is flooded and road will be shutdown.
Feb 15, 9:55 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD3 Se Hurley, VABuchanan County 911 reports Rustic and Thimble Rd are completely washed out.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 55 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 20 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 233 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2025-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2025-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 521 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1409 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
521 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
471 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

572 
WGUS51 KRLX 151755
FFWRLX
VAC027-051-152345-
/O.NEW.KRLX.FF.W.0007.250215T1755Z-250215T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1255 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Buchanan County in southwestern Virginia...
  Dickenson County in southwestern Virginia...

* Until 645 PM EST.

* At 1255 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the 
  warned area. Between 1 and 2.2 inches of rain have fallen. 
  Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the 
  warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring at numerous 
  locations in the warned area.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Clintwood, Grundy, Haysi, Davenport, Breaks Interstate, John 
  Flannagan Lake, Big Rock, Trammel, Clinchco, Vansant, Roseann, 
  Oakwood, Stacy, Nora, McClure and Hurley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

The saturated ground has produced conditions ripe for landslides and 
debris flows on steep slopes around the area. Residents with homes 
on or at the base of hillsides should be aware of the potential for 
landslides and watch for trees leaning in unusual orientations, 
water and mud seepage where not expected and other signs of 
potential ground movement.

Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll 
free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 8201 3734 8192 3730 8185 3729 8185
      3725 8175 3720 8176 3717 8186 3713 8191
      3712 8201 3705 8204 3704 8217 3700 8229
      3696 8235 3702 8248 3713 8255 3714 8255
      3716 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235 3753 8197

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$
4 follow-up statements
939 
WGUS71 KRLX 152046
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
346 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

VAC027-051-152345-
/O.CON.KRLX.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250215T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan VA-Dickenson VA-
346 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EST THIS 
EVENING FOR BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON COUNTIES...

At 346 PM EST, local law enforcement reported heavy rain across the 
warned area. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. 
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Clintwood, Grundy, Haysi, Davenport, Breaks Interstate, John 
  Flannagan Lake, Big Rock, Trammel, Clinchco, Vansant, Roseann, 
  Oakwood, Stacy, Nora, McClure and Hurley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

The saturated ground has produced conditions ripe for landslides and 
debris flows on steep slopes around the area. Residents with homes 
on or at the base of hillsides should be aware of the potential for 
landslides and watch for trees leaning in unusual orientations, 
water and mud seepage where not expected and other signs of 
potential ground movement.

Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll 
free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 8201 3734 8192 3730 8185 3729 8185
      3725 8175 3720 8176 3717 8186 3713 8191
      3712 8201 3705 8204 3704 8217 3700 8229
      3696 8235 3702 8248 3713 8255 3714 8255
      3716 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235 3753 8197

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JLB
712 
WGUS51 KRLX 152136
FFWRLX
VAC027-051-160145-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250216T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
436 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR TOWN OF HURLEY AND SLATE CREEK NEAR 
GRUNDY...

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Buchanan County in southwestern Virginia...
  Dickenson County in southwestern Virginia...

* Until 845 PM EST.

* At 436 PM EST, local law enforcement reported heavy rain in Town 
  of Hurley and Slate Creek near Grundy. Between 2.5 and 3.5 inches 
  of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches 
  are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already 
  occurring.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Town of Hurley and Slate Creek 
  near Grundy. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK 
  HIGHER GROUND NOW!

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing
           flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

  IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
           HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
           low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Clintwood, Grundy, Haysi, Davenport, Breaks Interstate, John 
  Flannagan Lake, Big Rock, Trammel, Clinchco, Vansant, Roseann, 
  Oakwood, Stacy, Nora, McClure and Hurley.

Catastrophic flash flooding is ongoing along Slate Creek near Grundy 
and Knox Creek near Hurley. Swift Water rescues are ongoing along 
Slate Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and 
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are 
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll 
free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 8201 3734 8192 3730 8185 3729 8185
      3725 8175 3720 8176 3717 8186 3713 8191
      3712 8201 3705 8204 3704 8217 3700 8229
      3696 8235 3702 8248 3713 8255 3714 8255
      3716 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235 3753 8197

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

$$

JLB
055 
WGUS51 KRLX 160032
FFWRLX
VAC027-051-160245-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250216T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
732 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR TOWN OF HURLEY AND SLATE CREEK NEAR 
GRUNDY...

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Buchanan County in southwestern Virginia...
  Dickenson County in southwestern Virginia...

* Until 945 PM EST.

* At 732 PM EST, emergency management reported flash flooding in the 
  Town of Hurley and Slate Creek near Grundy. Between 2.5 and 3.5 
  inches of rain have fallen.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Town of Hurley and Slate Creek 
  near Grundy. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK 
  HIGHER GROUND NOW!

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding is occurring.

  SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

  IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
           HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
           low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Clintwood, Grundy, Haysi, Davenport, Breaks Interstate, John 
  Flannagan Lake, Big Rock, Trammel, Clinchco, Vansant, Roseann, 
  Oakwood, Stacy, Nora, McClure and Hurley.

Catastrophic flash flooding is ongoing along Slate Creek near Grundy 
and Knox Creek near Hurley. Swift water rescues are ongoing along 
Slate Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and 
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are 
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll 
free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 8201 3734 8192 3730 8185 3729 8185
      3725 8175 3720 8176 3717 8186 3713 8191
      3712 8201 3705 8204 3704 8217 3700 8229
      3696 8235 3702 8248 3713 8255 3714 8255
      3716 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235 3753 8197

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

$$

JLB
246 
WGUS71 KRLX 160240
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
940 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

VAC027-051-160250-
/O.EXP.KRLX.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250216T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan VA-Dickenson VA-
940 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
BUCHANAN AND DICKENSON COUNTIES...

An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for ongoing flooding along 
large creeks and rivers. Stay aware of the flood risk in your area. 
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 8201 3734 8192 3730 8185 3729 8185
      3725 8175 3720 8176 3717 8186 3713 8191
      3712 8201 3705 8204 3704 8217 3700 8229
      3696 8235 3702 8248 3713 8255 3714 8255
      3716 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235 3753 8197

$$

JLB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Feb 15, 12:31 PM EST, 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 12:31 PM EST, 24 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1231 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system brings high confidence in significant flooding
this weekend. Snow to end the event. Cold next week with snow around
mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1004 AM Saturday...

Radar imagery shows areas of moderate to heavy rain over KY, quickly
advancing east with the bulk of precipitation along the warm front
just south of the area. Rain gauges have reported up to 0.35 inches
under the heavier rain. However, expect light rain this morning,
increasing in coverage and intensity as the day progresses. Rainfall
will spread north affecting SW VA, and southern WV coalfields
through this afternoon, before lifting north to affect the rest of
the area into this evening.

Latest CAMs indicate the axis of precipitation has shifted
south, as preliminary though couple of days ago. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect for the entire area, while few River
warnings remains in effect across the southern and central WV.
Therefore, increased PoPs across the south, lifting north per
latest guidance. Also, adjusted hourly temperatures match better
current observation trends.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms to develop this afternoon
along the warm front. Per the lack of instability, no severe weather
is expected attm, but convective elements could bring localized
higher rainfall rates, accelerating runoff. Rest of forecast
remains on track.

As of 225 AM Saturday...

Some scattered echoes have begun appearing on radar early this
morning with no precipitation reaching the ground as the low levels
remain rather dry. As moisture continues to filter down to the
surface as warm advection increase, temperatures will then
begin to rise overnight as well, especially across the southern
coal fields. Once we begin to moisten up near the surface as dew
points rise, we should start seeing some precipitation reach
the ground late tonight, this could potentially fall as
snow/sleet or freezing rain across far northern portions of the
forecast area, especially SE Ohio. It doesn't currently appear
that there will be much, if any, in the way of wintry
accumulation outside of the mountains but this could cause some
slippery conditions early this morning across northern/northwest
portions of the area before the precipitation changes over to
all rain.

In the northeast mountains, where the Winter Weather Advisory
is in place for most of the day today, it appears with the later
precipitation arrival time than previously anticipated that
total ice/snow accumulation could be a bit less than previously
expected as well, with the primary impacts being felt across the
mountains instead of the lower elevations in the valley. The
threat for winter precipitation should end across the mountains
by late afternoon, however, heavy rain is still expected
thereafter.

The primary concern today is the potential for significant
river and areal flooding as a low pressure system from the
Plains combined with a surge of energy from the Gulf, will slide
northeast across the area by late early Sunday, deepening as it
crosses our area. Recent model trends have shown that
significant rainfall is still expected across much of our
forecast area, with the heaviest QPF still situated across
southwestern portions of the area. There is still some
disagreement with where the heaviest band of precipitation will
align before the frontal passage. Latest HRRR and NAM3km show a
narrow band of heavy rain along/just north of the I-65/I-79
corridor training along a warm frontal boundary for several
hours late this afternoon into tonight bringing with it a narrow
stripe of around 2- 3" of rain, which could greatly exacerbate
flooding concerns in these areas as soil remains very saturated
and area rivers/creeks continue to run high, especially if this
band can become convective. Another area of concern is across
the WV mountains and adjacent valleys where current snowpack
across the high terrain could also exacerbate any flooding
concerns.

Outside of these aforementioned areas, widespread heavy rain is
still expected for a good portion of today and tonight, with
potentially a small break for some areas before the
frontogenetically forced precipitation arrives late tonight into
Sunday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for our entire forecast
area until 1AM Monday. The risk for widespread flooding will
increase with time today, maximized tonight into Sunday. WPC
still has much of the western half of the forecast area in a MDT
risk for excessive rainfall today, consistent with recent
trends and ongoing messaging. There are also ongoing River Flood
Warnings for some areas in anticipation of this event, as many
are already at least in action stage and expected to reach flood
stage sometime Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...

Key Points:

 * Confidence increasing for an impactful wind event over the
   higher terrain Sunday into Monday morning, with a High Wind
   Watch out for the northeastern mountains.

 * Several inches of snow appear likely as well later Sunday and
   Sunday night. Hazardous travel conditions expected,
   especially in areas susceptible to blowing snow issues.

The cold front associated with this potent system is forecast to
be knocking on the door by sunrise Sunday, and will race across
the CWA during the morning hours and exit to the east by early
afternoon. As it does so, we can expect to see the stratiform
rain break up into more showery elements. Most lower elevation
locations should see a quarter inch or less of QPF during the
day Sunday, while the mountains pick up more than that, with
over a half inch possible in some of the northern mountains. As
cold air streams in behind the front, high temperatures will
occur in the morning, with temperatures dropping the rest of the
day once the front passes a given location. As temperatures
drop, rain showers will mix with and then yield to snow showers.

Aside from any ongoing creek and river flooding on Sunday, the
most impactful weather of this period may be the combined snow
and wind expected in the mountains. Momentum transfer in
forecast soundings suggests at least a high probability of a
strong Wind Advisory event, and with several models showing
60kt winds under the inversion, warning criteria gusts are
certainly possible. As a result, and in collaboration with
neighbors, a High Wind Watch is in place from mid-morning Sunday
through midday Monday for our northern mountain zones.
Additionally, the post-front QPF forecast for the mountains
ticked up a bit, kicking the snow forecast for some of our
northern mountains into at least Winter Weather Advisory
criteria. One or two zones hitting Warning criteria is not out
of the question, but given the recent upward shift and in
collaboration with neighbors, we decided to go with an advance
notice Advisory for Sunday afternoon and night, rather than a
Watch. Given the simultaneous wind event, significant blowing
and drifting of snow and reduced visibility is likely for
exposed areas in the higher terrain.

Even outside of any High Wind Warning or Wind Advisory area,
wind gusts of 25-35mph can be expected behind the front in lower
elevations, so at least some tree damage and sporadic power
outages will be possible area-wide on Sunday. And not to pile on
more, but some of the northern mountains could get close to Cold
Weather Advisory criteria late Sunday night or Monday morning,
though it's very borderline at this point and may be localized
to just the highest peaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM Saturday...

There remains a good deal of uncertainty on the potential
Wednesday-Thursday snow event, but one thing seems to be
reasonably high confidence - next week will be much colder than
normal for mid/late February. For Tuesday and Wednesday, highs
from the mid-20s to mid-30s are expected. Thursday and Friday
may be a bit colder behind the mid-week system, with highs in
the mountains in the teens, and 20s in the lowlands. There is a
chance for some sub-zero lows in the mountains late this week.

Onto the potential snow event...

After dry weather later Monday through Tuesday, a developing low
over the Deep South and an upper-level trough digging through
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes may combine to bring a decent
snow event across the area, and especially for the mountains.
However, "may" is the key word here, as there remains some
uncertainty on whether these twos systems will 'phase' enough to
bring us a solid slug of snow, or if it mostly stays south and
east of us. Among the deterministic models, the Euro and
Canadian models are faster on the progression of the upper-level
trough, and thus cause more phasing, while the GFS is slower and
enthusiastic on phasing of the features. The ensemble data seems
to reflect the leanings of the parent deterministic models, with
the EPS the most bullish on snow and the GEFS the least.
Regardless, at least some impactful snow seems more likely than
not for the mountains, with more uncertainty for the lowlands
northwest of the high terrain. NBM probabilities peg the chance
for 4" of snow through 7am Thursday as around 50% for the
mountains and eastward, with chances decreasing to the
northwest. Snow showers could linger for the mountains and
western upslope region into Thursday night before clearing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Saturday...

Periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue to affect the
southern WV, SW VA, and central and northern WV mountains through
tonight as a warm front lifts north. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions at
BKW where the axis of precipitation has settled this afternoon.
Similar conditions are expected across the rest of sites as the warm
front lifts north later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
temporarily MVFR/VFR conditions will be possible outside
periods of rain.

The proximity of an approaching low pressure center will tighten up
the pressure gradient, providing a low level jet aloft developing
this afternoon and lasting through the night. This will produce an
extended period of LLWS across most terminals through at least
Sunday morning. Therefore, coded LLWS using NBM timing.

The low pressure, will push a cold front, entering SE OH by 12Z
Sunday. Much colder airmass behind the front will transition
rain into snow by Sunday afternoon (~18Z), spreading from west
to east while diminishing in intensity and coverage. LLWS may
continue during FROPA. Conditions finally improve to MVFR/VFR
from west to east Sunday afternoon or evening.

Light southerly winds, gusty around areas of moderate rain, will
continue across the area through Sunday morning, before shifting
from the west and becoming gusty behind the cold front Sunday
afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions this
afternoon into Sunday could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EST 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible once again late this weekend and next
week in snow, especially across the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through late Sunday night for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ516-
     518-523-524-526.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday
     for WVZ522-523-526.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon
     for WVZ523-526.
OH...Flood Watch through late Sunday night for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through late Sunday night for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through late Sunday night for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...28/FK
NEAR TERM...28/ARJ
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...ARJ
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 15, 4:37 AM EST, 8 hours 18 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
437 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

WVZ523-526-160945-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph-
437 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

Cold Weather Headlines may eventually be needed for low wind chills
late Sunday night and Monday morning.

Accumulating snow is possible around the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ516-518-524-160945-
Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Fayette-Southeast Pocahontas-
437 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Accumulating snow is possible around the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515-517-519>521-525-160945-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Northwest Randolph-
437 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Accumulating snow is possible around the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ522-160945-
Southeast Webster-
437 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

Accumulating snow is possible around the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 15, 12:28 PM EST, 27 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1228 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     Flood            Clintwood               37.15N 82.45W
02/15/2025                   Dickenson          VA   911 Call Center

            Water is out of the side ditches and
            impacting the roadway.

&&

JRM
Local storm report, Feb 15, 12:31 PM EST, 24 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1231 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 PM     Flood            Clintwood               37.15N 82.46W
02/15/2025                   Dickenson          VA   911 Call Center

            Flooding at Pioneer St and Jessee St.

&&

JRM
Local storm report, Feb 15, 12:36 PM EST, 19 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1236 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     Flood            Clintwood               37.15N 82.46W
02/15/2025                   Dickenson          VA   911 Call Center

            Flooding on Wave Drive.

&&

JRM
Local storm report, Feb 15, 12:40 PM EST, 15 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1240 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     Flood            Clintwood               37.15N 82.46W
02/15/2025                   Dickenson          VA   911 Call Center

            Flooding at Short Street.

&&

JRM
Local storm report, Feb 15, 12:41 PM EST, 14 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1241 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     Flood            Clintwood               37.15N 82.46W
02/15/2025                   Dickenson          VA   911 Call Center

            Power House Hollow Road shut down from
            flooding.

&&

JRM
Local storm report, Feb 15, 12:43 PM EST, 12 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1243 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1231 PM     Flood            4 SSW Clintwood         37.10N 82.49W
02/15/2025                   Dickenson          VA   911 Call Center

            Long Fork Creek flooding causing debris
            covering residents bridge.

&&

JRM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Charleston, WV issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 10:35 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningRLXBuchanan, Dickenson35 hr
Feb 15, 2:29 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryRLXBuchanan, Dickenson47 hr
Feb 15, 2:48 PM ESTFlash Flood WarningRLXBuchanan8 hr
Feb 15, 3:32 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningRLXDickenson12 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Virginia, 2025Every flash flood warning in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.