Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Raleigh, NC

455 
WWUS52 KRAH 051932
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

NCC065-083-127-051945-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-250305T1945Z/
Nash NC-Edgecombe NC-Halifax NC-
232 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EST
FOR EASTERN NASH...NORTHERN EDGECOMBE AND SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX
COUNTIES...

At 232 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Halifax to 11 miles west of Scotland Neck to near
Elm City, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Enfield, Rocky Mount, Leggett, Battleboro, Whitakers, Sharpsburg,
Tillery, Halifax, Scotland Neck, and Tar River Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EST for central North
Carolina.

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Straight line winds can blow down trees, power lines, and damage
mobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure
until the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debris
generated by damaging winds can be deadly.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 7724 3609 7731 3601 7739 3578 7807
      3631 7771 3636 7758 3634 7759 3630 7755
      3632 7744 3629 7741 3626 7741 3624 7738
      3621 7738 3619 7735 3619 7733 3617 7731
      3616 7727 3612 7724 3612 7725 3611 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 240DEG 43KT 3629 7754 3612 7763 3585 7791 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

1

339 
WWUS52 KRAH 051941
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
241 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

NCC065-083-127-051950-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-250305T1945Z/
Nash NC-Edgecombe NC-Halifax NC-
241 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN NASH...NORTHERN
EDGECOMBE AND SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM
EST...

A new Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Nash, 
Edgecombe, and Halifax Counties. 

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EST for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 7724 3609 7731 3601 7739 3578 7807
      3631 7771 3636 7758 3634 7759 3630 7755
      3632 7744 3629 7741 3626 7741 3624 7738
      3621 7738 3619 7735 3619 7733 3617 7731
      3616 7727 3612 7724 3612 7725 3611 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 236DEG 34KT 3633 7746 3616 7755 3589 7783 

$$

1

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1250 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A line of strong to possibly severe storms will move east across the
region through this afternoon. A cold front will follow close
behind, passing through during the evening and early overnight
hours. Cool high pressure will build across the Southeast Thursday
and Friday. Surface low pressure will track west to east over North
Carolina Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM Wednesday...

* Enhanced-Level 3 Severe Risk across Central NC...

* Multiple thunderstorm related hazards possible today, including
  damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail...

* Wind Advisory in effect for non-thunderstorm wind gusts of
  40-50 mph...

Forecast in good shape. A Tornado Watch is in effect for the entire
area until 18z. Prefrontal QLCS now over the W Piedmont will
continue to push eastward through the forecast area, likely
increasing in intensity as it feeds on surging low level moisture
spreading into E NC. Gusts to 40-55 remain likely, even outside of
the convective line, with very long looping hodographs bringing
about a concern for along-line bowing segments and rotation.
Lightning has been sparse to absent up to now, given MUCAPE of 100
J/kg or less, but areas E of Hwy 1 should see a tongue of 250-500
J/kg spreading into E NC, in tandem with the increasing surface
dewpoints, persisting for the next several hours. Damaging wind
gusts and embedded weak tornadoes remain the primary threats, with
mostly small hail also possible. -GIH

Earlier discussion as of 250 AM: The forecast remains on track will
continued good model agreement on convective evolution and timing.

A deep and occluding cyclone tracking NE across the lower Great
Lakes into southwestern Quebec will drag a strong surface cold front
through the area this evening and tonight. Crazy strong lower/mid-
tropospheric wind fields(60-70 kts at 850mb) associated with the
cyclone will give rise to an Enhanced/Level 3 risk for severe storms
as an evolving QLCS(currently over eastern TN and GA), advances east
across central NC through the morning and early afternoon hours.

Models continue to indicate that surface dew points may increase
into the lower 60s F in a corridor across the eastern Piedmont,
Sandhills, and Coastal Plain with weak CAPE of 250-500 J/kg
developing by mid/late morning. This will likely lead to
intensification of the QLCS as it advances eastward through the area
through ~20z. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level
hodographs, strong damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be
possible. While severe storms are possible across all of central NC,
the greatest severe threat is expected along and east of US-1, where
the instability is maximized. Additionally, given the robust
environmental wind field, it's possible that the straight-line
damaging winds could produce corridors of tornado-like damage where
wind speeds could exceed 75 mph. The severe threat will be greatest
between 10 am and 3 pm.

In the wake of the exiting lead convective band, isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms could re-develop over the Piedmont
during the late afternoon and evening as the colder air
aloft/steeper lapse rates spread east into the area. It's a low-end
conditional threat, but if the updrafts are tall enough and can
overcome the dry air aloft, a secondary severe threat could re-
emerge with hail and damaging winds the main threat.

Finally, given the impressive wind fields, strong and frequent wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible outside of convection. Bring
in or secure loose objects from outdoors, stay away from downed
trees and power-lines, and take extra care in high profile vehicles.

Given the recent dryness, the convective rains will bring some much
needed rainfall of 0.75 to 1.0" to central NC, with some localized
higher amounts.

Highs ranging from mid/upper 60s north to lower 70s south.

The cold front will cross the area Wednesday evening and into the
early overnight hours. Expect partial clearing overnight with
lingering NWLY gustiness as CAA sets in. Lows in the mid/upper 30s
north to lower/mid 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

* Cooler with highs back in the 50s

* Breezy with NW winds gusting 25-35 mph

The system from Wed pulls out of the region. Cold advection will
favor highs cooler in the low 50s NW to upper 50s SE. A tight
pressure gradient will remain in place. WNW winds will gust at times
between 25 and 35 mph, with infrequent gusts to 40 mph as suggested
in forecast soundings from the NAM/GFS. RH levels will dip into the
lower 30s. This would normally support a fire danger risk, but
expected rain on Wed may limit overall impacts. High pressure over
the lower MS valley shifts into the far SE US overnight. While not
in the most ideal spot, lows should dip below average in the low to
mid 30s, coldest in the upper 20s in outlying areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

For the most part, the long term will feature limited impacts, along
with generally above normal temperatures. The warmup starts as early
as Fri and continues into Sat as high pressure over the southwest
Atlantic brings return flow. Near normal highs in the upper 50s to
mid 60s Fri will become some 10 degrees above average Sat in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Models still show a system crossing the region
in the quasi-zonal flow late Fri into Sat, but its passage should
only bring high clouds. The system will, however, bring a cold front
through Sat night, dropping our highs briefly below normal on Sun
back into the 50s.

Rain chances return late Sat night through Sun as ensembles and
deterministic guidance show a southern stream wave tracking into the
SE US and perhaps Carolinas during this time. A look at the latest
ensemble clusters, there is still uncertainty on how far north that
system gets, with about 30 to 40 percent of the ensemble members wet
and another 30-40 percent dry and more suppressed to our south. Have
retained the 30-40 percent rain chances, highest in our south and
east and mainly during the day Sun.

Drier and warmer weather is favored Mon through Wed as ridging
slowly builds east from the Plains and Midwest. Highs in the 60s are
expected Mon, with well above normal Tue/Wed well into the 70s. A
system could approach late in the period as some guidance suggests a
system reaching the central US late Wed. Most ensemble data keeps it
west until Thu so have kept this period dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Wednesday...

Of most immediate concern for aviation interests is the line of
showers and isolated storms now tracking through the Triangle
region, producing locally severe wind gusts and a period of IFR/LIFR
conditions in brief heavy rain, conditions that will continue
through 1930z at RDU and 21z at RWI/FAY. Rain is less intense to the
west and become much patchier at INT/GSO. Extreme low level
turbulence (LLT) is very likely through this afternoon at
RDU/RWI/FAY, even well away from storms, with 40-55 kt winds from
the S just 1500-2500 ft AGL. Winds aloft are not quite as strong at
INT/GSO, but LLT and frequent 20-30 kt gusts remain possible there
this afternoon. After 21z W and 00z E, while a few showers will
remain possible, VFR conditions with gradually decreasing gusts are
expected as a cold front moves through and surface winds shift to
more westerly, although some gusts to 15-25 kts will remain possible
through the forecast period (18z Thu). From this evening on, expect
sct-bkn VFR clouds lasting through much of Thu.

Looking beyond 18z Thu, gusty WNW winds will persist through Thu
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will largely dominate through
Mon. We'll have increasing and thickening high and mid clouds late
Thu night through much of Fri, mainly N, as a front approaches from
the N with a low pressure center tracking along the front. This
front will drop through late Sat, bringing another round of clouds
and light rain chances, mainly SE, Sat evening into early Sun as
another low pressure center tracks along the front to our south, but
still expect VFR conditions to hold. Fair skies and high chances for
VFR conditions return Mon under high pressure. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Hartfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1227 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040-073>076-083>085-060930-
Person-Granville-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-
Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-
1227 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for strong and gusty southerly winds of
40 to 50 mph. These strong winds are expected even outside of any
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ009>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-086-088-089-060930-
Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-
Harnett-Wayne-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
1227 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 28 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for strong and gusty southerly winds of
40 to 50 mph. These strong winds are expected even outside of any
thunderstorms.

There is an enhanced risk (Level 3 out of 5) of severe storms today.
A squall line, with an accompanying risk of damaging straight line
wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1251 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 SE Four Oaks          35.39N 78.37W
03/05/2025                   Johnston           NC   Utility Company

            Duke energy reported outage caused by fallen
            trees or limbs damaging equipment.

&&

LH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
110 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NE Rdu International  35.91N 78.72W
03/05/2025                   Wake               NC   Broadcast Media

            Trees down in North Raleigh neighborhood
            from TV media.

&&

LH

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
113 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 5 SE Four Oaks          35.39N 78.37W
03/05/2025                   Johnston           NC   Utility Company

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 5
            SE Four Oaks. Duke energy reported outage
            caused by fallen trees or limbs damaging
            equipment. Corrected event type.

&&

LH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
120 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Roseboro                34.95N 78.51W
03/05/2025                   Sampson            NC   Utility Company

            Duke energy reported outage caused by fallen
            trees or limbs damaging equipment.

&&

LH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
124 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 N Bushy Fork          36.37N 79.07W
03/05/2025                   Person             NC   Utility Company

            Duke energy reported outage caused by fallen
            trees or limbs damaging equipment.

&&

LH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
132 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1201 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 E Youngsville         36.03N 78.37W
03/05/2025                   Franklin           NC   Utility Company

            Trees down and power outages.

&&

np