Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
925 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A line of strong to possibly severe storms will move east across the
region through this afternoon. A cold front will follow close
behind, passing through during the evening and early overnight
hours. Cool high pressure will build across the Southeast Thursday
and Friday. Surface low pressure will track west to east over North
Carolina Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM Wednesday...

* Enhanced-Level 3 Severe Risk across Central NC...

* Multiple thunderstorm related hazards possible today, including
  damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail...

* Wind Advisory in effect for non-thunderstorm wind gusts of
  40-50 mph...

Forecast in good shape. A Tornado Watch is in effect for the entire
area until 18z. Prefrontal QLCS now over the W Piedmont will
continue to push eastward through the forecast area, likely
increasing in intensity as it feeds on surging low level moisture
spreading into E NC. Gusts to 40-55 remain likely, even outside of
the convective line, with very long looping hodographs bringing
about a concern for along-line bowing segments and rotation.
Lightning has been sparse to absent up to now, given MUCAPE of 100
J/kg or less, but areas E of Hwy 1 should see a tongue of 250-500
J/kg spreading into E NC, in tandem with the increasing surface
dewpoints, persisting for the next several hours. Damaging wind
gusts and embedded weak tornadoes remain the primary threats, with
mostly small hail also possible. -GIH

Earlier discussion as of 250 AM: The forecast remains on track will
continued good model agreement on convective evolution and timing.

A deep and occluding cyclone tracking NE across the lower Great
Lakes into southwestern Quebec will drag a strong surface cold front
through the area this evening and tonight. Crazy strong lower/mid-
tropospheric wind fields(60-70 kts at 850mb) associated with the
cyclone will give rise to an Enhanced/Level 3 risk for severe storms
as an evolving QLCS(currently over eastern TN and GA), advances east
across central NC through the morning and early afternoon hours.

Models continue to indicate that surface dew points may increase
into the lower 60s F in a corridor across the eastern Piedmont,
Sandhills, and Coastal Plain with weak CAPE of 250-500 J/kg
developing by mid/late morning. This will likely lead to
intensification of the QLCS as it advances eastward through the area
through ~20z. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level
hodographs, strong damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be
possible. While severe storms are possible across all of central NC,
the greatest severe threat is expected along and east of US-1, where
the instability is maximized. Additionally, given the robust
environmental wind field, it's possible that the straight-line
damaging winds could produce corridors of tornado-like damage where
wind speeds could exceed 75 mph. The severe threat will be greatest
between 10 am and 3 pm.

In the wake of the exiting lead convective band, isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms could re-develop over the Piedmont
during the late afternoon and evening as the colder air
aloft/steeper lapse rates spread east into the area. It's a low-end
conditional threat, but if the updrafts are tall enough and can
overcome the dry air aloft, a secondary severe threat could re-
emerge with hail and damaging winds the main threat.

Finally, given the impressive wind fields, strong and frequent wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible outside of convection. Bring
in or secure loose objects from outdoors, stay away from downed
trees and power-lines, and take extra care in high profile vehicles.

Given the recent dryness, the convective rains will bring some much
needed rainfall of 0.75 to 1.0" to central NC, with some localized
higher amounts.

Highs ranging from mid/upper 60s north to lower 70s south.

The cold front will cross the area Wednesday evening and into the
early overnight hours. Expect partial clearing overnight with
lingering NWLY gustiness as CAA sets in. Lows in the mid/upper 30s
north to lower/mid 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

* Cooler with highs back in the 50s

* Breezy with NW winds gusting 25-35 mph

The system from Wed pulls out of the region. Cold advection will
favor highs cooler in the low 50s NW to upper 50s SE. A tight
pressure gradient will remain in place. WNW winds will gust at times
between 25 and 35 mph, with infrequent gusts to 40 mph as suggested
in forecast soundings from the NAM/GFS. RH levels will dip into the
lower 30s. This would normally support a fire danger risk, but
expected rain on Wed may limit overall impacts. High pressure over
the lower MS valley shifts into the far SE US overnight. While not
in the most ideal spot, lows should dip below average in the low to
mid 30s, coldest in the upper 20s in outlying areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

For the most part, the long term will feature limited impacts, along
with generally above normal temperatures. The warmup starts as early
as Fri and continues into Sat as high pressure over the southwest
Atlantic brings return flow. Near normal highs in the upper 50s to
mid 60s Fri will become some 10 degrees above average Sat in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Models still show a system crossing the region
in the quasi-zonal flow late Fri into Sat, but its passage should
only bring high clouds. The system will, however, bring a cold front
through Sat night, dropping our highs briefly below normal on Sun
back into the 50s.

Rain chances return late Sat night through Sun as ensembles and
deterministic guidance show a southern stream wave tracking into the
SE US and perhaps Carolinas during this time. A look at the latest
ensemble clusters, there is still uncertainty on how far north that
system gets, with about 30 to 40 percent of the ensemble members wet
and another 30-40 percent dry and more suppressed to our south. Have
retained the 30-40 percent rain chances, highest in our south and
east and mainly during the day Sun.

Drier and warmer weather is favored Mon through Wed as ridging
slowly builds east from the Plains and Midwest. Highs in the 60s are
expected Mon, with well above normal Tue/Wed well into the 70s. A
system could approach late in the period as some guidance suggests a
system reaching the central US late Wed. Most ensemble data keeps it
west until Thu so have kept this period dry.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 620 AM Wednesday...

24 Hour TAF Period: A deep low pressure system tracking NE across
the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec will drag
a strong surface cold front through the area this evening and into
the overnight hours. An powerful 60-70 kt southerly LLJ associated
with this system will traverse the area today and will bring
widespread adverse aviation conditions in the form of widespread
showers and storms, strong winds, and LLWS.

MVFR ceilings across the western terminals will spread east through
12-15z as a line of strong to potentially severe storms crosses all
of central NC before exiting the area ~20z. Once the line of
convection pushes east of the area, aviation restrictions should
lift to VFR during the afternoon. A secondary area of convection,
more scattered in nature, could re-develop during the late afternoon
and evening. However, given the low confidence in coverage and
development, will only include VCSH at this time.

Outside of the main line of convection expect strong wind gusts of
30 to 40 kts at times.

Outlook: Breezy northwesterly winds are expected Thursday and again
Friday. Rain chances could return late Saturday and Saturday with
the potential for sub-VFR ceilings/vsbys.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
754 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-060900-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
754 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 26 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Tornado Watch.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for strong and gusty southerly winds of
40 to 50 mph. These strong winds are expected even outside of any
thunderstorms.

There is an enhanced risk (Level 3 out of 5) of severe storms today.
A squall line, with an accompanying risk of damaging straight line
wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. The severe threat will be
greatest between 10 am and 3 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
741 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

NCZ021-022-038-051345-
Guilford NC-Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-
741 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FORSYTH...NORTHERN DAVIDSON AND
WESTERN GUILFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM EST...

At 741 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of Harmony to Mooresville.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
High Point, Pfafftown, Clemmons, Stokesdale, Lexington, Kernersville,
Oak Hollow Marina, Belews Creek, Linwood, and Arcadia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8017 3625 7993 3624 7993 3592 7997
      3592 8005 3583 8005 3572 8039 3574 8046
      3581 8047 3583 8049 3584 8039 3588 8042
      3589 8037 3596 8038 3599 8042 3601 8042
      3606 8046 3604 8049 3608 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1241Z 238DEG 40KT 3585 8076 3560 8079

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

1

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