Severe Thunderstorm Warning 398, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
309 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of gusty thunderstorms this afternoon/evening,
  with some strong to severe storms possible along the eastern
  border late.

- Daily storms continue over the mountains into midweek, with
  lower chances over the plains.

- Greatest coverage of showers and storms Friday, with the
  highest chances and locally heavy rain threat over the
  mountains.

- Drier again into the weekend but a little cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Currently...Upper trough over the West Coast with the low center
over western OR was producing brisk southwest flow aloft across
the Four Corners, with moisture advection for the western half of
CO. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across the
higher terrain this afternoon, with a focus area over the central
mts. Temps have warmed into the 70s and 80s for most locations as
of 1 PM, with near 90F for the far eastern plains.

Tonight...Upper low trough will dig south through the night, with
the upper low center pushing onshore across northern CA. Southwest
flow aloft will persist, while the upper ridge over CO gradually
slides to the east and the ridge axis reaches the eastern CO border.
Current convection across the higher terrain is expected to gradually
drift across the I-25 Corridor late this afternoon, but latest runs
of the HRRR and HREF are indicating potentially stronger storms
further east later tonight, in the 9 PM to midnight timeframe and
possibly lasting longer. Due to lee troughing with southerly surface
winds near the eastern border, current dewpoints in the mid 50s
indicate the best llvl moisture there. Model CAPE of 1500-2000j/kg
and bulk shear of 35-45 kts right along the CO/KS border further
supports the potential for stronger storms out east late tonight,
and latest SPC severe wx outlook has painted a Slight area for
severe storm potential dipping down into Kiowa Co, while a Marginal
remains all along the eastern border. Main threat from convection
this afternoon and evening will be gusty winds to 45 mph, but the
stronger storms will potentially produce 55-60 mph gusts, hail up
to one inch in diameter and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.
Plan on overnight lows in the 40s across the high valleys and 50s
across the plains.

Wednesday...The upper trough initially makes a push onshore but
then remains somewhat static, with more of a south-southwest flow
aloft across the Four Corners and Great Basin regions. Convection
is expected to fire over the higher terrain by midday once again,
but storm motion will likely be a bit more to the northeast while
models are indicating less shear and slightly less CAPE to work
with. Another round of gusty storms will be the main threat, and
SPC has painted the entire area under General for thunder. Plan on
one more day with highs in the 70s to around 80F for the high
valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Wednesday Night and Thursday:
The upper level low located over the western United States will
continue to emit weak waves over southern Colorado which will
keep thunderstorms going for 1 to 2 hours after the beginning of
the long term forecast period (6PM on Wednesday).
Environmentally, there isn't much to talk about since any CAPE
over the region will be on the decrease as we lose heating. The
storms are pegged to develop over the southern I-25 corridor,
which hosts CAPE values of less than 500 J/kg with a hefty
amount of CIN. Main hazard will be gusty winds of up to 40 MPH
as the storms dissipate and the cores drop. For Thursday, the
closed low slides slightly closer to Colorado which will emit a
wave that is a little strong than that on Wednesday. The main
vorticity stream extends SW to NE from the San Luis Valley
towards the Pikes Peak Region, which is where the convection is
expected to develop. Once again, the instability is lacking with
values less than 1000 J/kg, so the main risks will be gusty
thunderstorm outflow winds with gusts up to 50 MPH, small hail,
and lightning. Showers and thunderstorms would continue
overnight over the Continental Divide.

Friday:
Friday is the day that the closed low finally gets caught up in
the upper level flow and begins to make its exit out of the
western half of the United States. The strongest waves will pass
overhead as the primary trough propagates SW to the NE. The main
energy will be focused over the West-Northwest portion of
Colorado, which is where the majority of the convection will
develop - so expect widespread thunderstorms over the mountains
and mountain valleys. The highest CAPE values will be near the
New Mexico border in the San Luis Valley, but those values are
at most around 800 J/kg. However, the CAPE is long skinny CAPE,
meaning that the sounding is pretty saturated throughout the
entire layer, which makes sense since the source of moisture
with this low-pressure system originates from the Pacific. I
think there will be some sneakily heavy rainers that form from
these storms and flooding and flash flooding needs to be
monitored. Lingering showers will continue through the early
morning hours on Saturday.

Saturday through Monday:
Drier conditions are expected as the drier airmass and the
height rises from the backside of the passing low-pressure
center develop over southern Colorado. Perhaps we'll see an
isolated stronger thunderstorm on the east side of the dryline
near the Kansas border, but the rest of the region will be warm
and dry. The same sentiment exists on Sunday, as well. I suppose
one thing we'll have to worry about are fire weather conditions
on both Saturday and Sunday, as the upper level pattern will be
SW flow over the region, which tends to indicated elevated fire
weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. Showers and thunderstorms will fire over the higher terrain by
18z-19z, gradually spreading across the I-25 Corridor affecting KCOS
and KPUB in the 23z-00z time frame. Maintained PROB30 wording for -
TSRA and variable gusts to 30 kts for those two sites, with
intermittent MVFR conditions possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...WFO Pueblo
AVIATION...MOORE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1148 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-101800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1148 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will form over the higher terrain this
afternoon, moving and developing south and east onto the plains
very late this afternoon and evening. Over and near the mountains,
storms will generally produce gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph,
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Storms that make it over
the far eastern plains may intensify, becoming strong to severe
tonight. While these stronger storms have a lower chance of
forming, those that do will be capable of producing outflow winds
to 65 mph, heavy rain, and hail up to 1 inch in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily over
the higher elevations and into the I-25 corridor each afternoon
and evening through Friday. Main risks for Wednesday Night and
Thursday will be lightning and strong thunderstorm outflow winds.
On Friday there will be the same hazards over the same areas, but
additionally there is a flood and flash flood risk for the
mountains and the mountain valleys. Thunderstorm coverage
decreases for Saturday and Sunday, but a risk of lightning and
gusty winds across the mountains and the lower elevations still
exist.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotter activation will be possible late this afternoon
and tonight.

Moore/WFO Pueblo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
227 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

COZ064-066-092100-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet CO-Saguache County West of
Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet CO-
227 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SAGUACHE COUNTY
UNTIL 3 PM MDT...

At 227 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles west of North Pass, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of Northwestern Saguache County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3831 10689 3835 10690 3838 10664 3820 10659
      3817 10686
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 256DEG 14KT 3825 10683

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RPK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
409 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

COZ097-098-092245-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County
CO-
409 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL PROWERS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 409 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles south of Hasty, or 22 miles southwest of Lamar, moving east at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of West Central Prowers and Southeastern Bent
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3772 10290 3791 10293 3796 10270 3772 10267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 262DEG 7KT 3782 10286

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RPK