Severe Thunderstorm Warning 396, NWS Pueblo, CO

878 
WWUS55 KPUB 090802
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
202 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

COC009-090815-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0396.000000T0000Z-250909T0815Z/
Baca CO-
202 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM MDT 
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BACA COUNTY...

At 202 AM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast 
of Campo, or 17 miles south of Springfield, moving southeast at 20 
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Campo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 3717 10267 3723 10262 3728 10253 3721 10229
      3701 10243
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 294DEG 16KT 3721 10259

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Barjenbruch

574 
WWUS55 KPUB 090813
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
213 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

COC009-090823-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0396.000000T0000Z-250909T0815Z/
Baca CO-
213 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 215 AM MDT FOR SOUTH 
CENTRAL BACA COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property. 
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, small 
hail and stron,g gusty winds to 50-55 mph are still possible with 
this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3717 10267 3723 10262 3728 10253 3721 10229
      3701 10243
TIME...MOT...LOC 0802Z 294DEG 16KT 3718 10250

$$

Barjenbruch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1154 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Key Messages:

- Slight uptick in storm activity tomorrow with potential for
  strong/severe storms across the far southeast plains.

- Temperatures at to slightly above seasonal levels with daily
  chances of afternoon showers and storms over and near the higher
  terrain through mid week.

- Cooler late week with greatest coverage of showers and storms
  Friday (highest chances still over the mountains), then drier again
  into the weekend.

&&

Short Term through Tuesday:

Current water vapor imagery has modest westerly flow aloft across
the region, as a broad upper trough across the West Coast is
ejecting short waves through upper level ridging in place across the
Intermountain West and Rockies at this time. Temperatures, as of 1
pm,  have warmed into the 80s across the plains, with readings
mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.  Regional
radars are indicating a few showers and an isolated storm across the
higher terrain, with SPC meso-analysis indicating CAPE of less than
500 j/kg over and near the higher terrain, though does have CAPE up
to 2000 j/kg across the far southeast plains at this time. DCAPE of
800-1300 j/kg is also in place.

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Latest model data continues to support fairly isolated high based
showers and storms over and the higher terrain through the early
evening, with drier air mixing down across the far southeast plains
through the late afternoon limiting instability into the evening.
Showers and storms that do develop will be mainly high based, with
gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph the main threat through the
evening, with slowly clearing skies through the overnight hours and
near seasonal overnight lows once again. Will need to monitor any
convection across western Kansas, though, as a some data supports
increasing instability through the overnight hours, and the
potential for convection early Tuesday morning across the far
southeast plains.

Tuesday...

Flow aloft becomes slightly more southwest through the day, with
model data supporting increasing available moisture with PWATS of
100 to 125 percent of normal into the afternoon. This will support
better coverage of showers and storms over and near the higher
terrain tomorrow afternoon, with better chances of seeing measurable
rain. Further east across the plains, lee troughing will develop
southerly flow with progged CAPE of up to 2000 j/kg in place in the
afternoon, along with bulk shear of 30-40kts. Latest SPC guidance
indicates a marginal risk of severe storms across the far southeast
plains, with strong winds and large hail being the main risks if
storms can develop. Temperatures tomorrow will remain at to slightly
above normal with highs in the 80s to lower 90s once again across
the plains, and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 pM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Wednesday and Thursday pretty much have the same weather impacts
each day as a closed low stalls over the US West. Each day there
will be weak waves that pass over Colorado. The current thinking is
that each of the waves will spark thunderstorms over the mountains
and mountain valleys during the mid afternoon and then develop
further to the east before dissipating before shortly after sunset.
The main hazards from the storms appear to be locally heavy rain and
gusty outflow winds. The instability really isn’t there each of
these days, so the severe hail risk is low. However, the DCAPE
values each day are above 1000 J/kg, so perhaps isolated 60 MPH wind
gust will develop. High temperatures will be persistent with values
in the 80s to 90s over the plains and the 60s to 70s over the
mountain valleys.

Friday through Sunday...The closed low finally breaks free of
being stalled over the US west and ejects over northwest
Colorado. The wave will be the strongest wave of the week, which
will spark more widespread showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains, mountain valleys, and the adjacent plains. MUCAPE
values are less than 1000 J/kg, so the severe risk for hail is
low. The thermodynamic profile over the San Luis Valley is a bit
concerning because of how saturated the profile is – I think
there may be a sneaky heavy rain and flash flood risk over the
mountains and the mountain valleys as the wave passes overhead
on Friday. The profile over the plains have a large T – Td
spread, so the gusty outflow winds are expected. Saturday and
Sunday look drier as the heights rise after the trough passes
overhead with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm over the
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025

VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. The best chance of some
convective showers will be at KCOS late tomorrow afternoon/
early evening hours.

Winds will be diurnal through the period. Some gusty outflow
winds will be possible at each of the taf sites by late
afternoon, with the greatest threat at KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...WFO PUB
LONG TERM...WFO PUB
AVIATION...WFO PUB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1131 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-091045-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
433 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
higher terrain this afternoon, with a few storms pushing east across
the high mountain valleys and the immediate adjacent plains through
the late afternoon and early evening. Storms will be higher based,
with the main threats being lightning and gusty outflow winds up to
50 mph. Brief heavy rain and small hail may also accompany the
strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected over the mountains,
mountain valleys, and the plains. Though scattered in coverage,
there will be a risk for lightning, gusty outflow winds, and small
hail. On Friday a stronger wave passes overhead increasing the
thunderstorm coverage across the aforementioned areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/SKELLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1212 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

COZ094-099-090645-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
1212 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN BACA AND SOUTHEASTERN
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM MDT...

At 1212 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles northeast of Kim, or 32 miles west of Springfield, moving east
at 10 mph. Other showers and storms extending to the east and
southeast were also likely producing gusty winds.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Springfield, Pritchett, Kim and Two Buttes Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10347 3764 10324 3764 10251 3700 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 270DEG 9KT 3755 10318

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Barjenbruch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1248 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

COZ094-099-090730-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
1248 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BACA AND
EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM MDT...

At 1248 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms 11 miles west of Pritchett, or 24 miles west of
Springfield, extending eastward to about 5 miles southeast of
Springfield, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Springfield, Pritchett and Vilas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 10327 3738 10319 3755 10301 3751 10216
      3707 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0646Z 282DEG 24KT 3734 10305

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Barjenbruch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
126 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

COZ099-090815-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
126 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BACA COUNTY UNTIL 215
AM MDT...

At 126 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms 11 miles northwest of Campo, or 11 miles south of
Springfield, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree branches and blow
around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Springfield, Walsh, Pritchett, Vilas, Campo and Stonington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3703 10309 3735 10305 3749 10271 3748 10204
      3699 10204 3700 10272 3700 10309
TIME...MOT...LOC 0725Z 296DEG 26KT 3725 10266

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Barjenbruch