Tornado Warning 88, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
231 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 223 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

 - Severe storms and heavy rainfall expected early Friday
   morning. Flash flood/flood threat continues across southern
   into parts of central Oklahoma.

 - Dry this weekend.

 - A stormy pattern returns next week with storms and heavy
   rainfall, especially late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms have developed near a frontal
boundary across the Red River in southwestern Oklahoma and far
northern Texas.  Meanwhile, a small cluster of storms is moving
quickly across west central/central Oklahoma.  Strong outflow winds
associated with the smaller cluster should reinforce the frontal
boundary near the Red River, where storms have been training.
Most CAMS merge the storms into a larger MCS and move the complex
into eastern Oklahoma by 12Z Friday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible through the morning and
afternoon, within an area of mid-level convergence. This will
likely setup across central Oklahoma early Friday morning and will
gradually shift southward during the late morning and afternoon.

Clouds will clear from north to south this afternoon and into
tonight, as a trough moves southeast across the central and southern
Plains.  Relatively dry air will advect southward across Oklahoma
and northern Texas late this afternoon and tonight.  This will allow
temperatures to cool into the 40s by early Saturday morning. Lower
30s are possible across far northwestern Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

A mid and upper ridge will build into the central part of the U.S.
over the weekend.  This will bring a mainly clear sky with cool
nights and warm daytime temperatures.  A northerly wind on Saturday
will shift to a southerly direction on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

By late Monday into Tuesday, a large trough/low across the
southwestern U.S. will begin to lift across West Texas and part
of the southern and central Plains.  This is expected to bring
another round of strong thunderstorms, with an increase risk of
heavy rainfall and flooding. By mid-week, the mid and upper low will
move little, with ridging to the west and east. Confidence in
this solution is not high, but would keep the area in at least a
chance of showers and storms from Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Thunderstorm intensity is increasing across west central Oklahoma
and near a frontal boundary near the Red River. CAMs are in
general agreement in merging the two areas shortly after 9Z. Very
strong winds and hail will be possible with the stronger storms
and will mainly impact OKC/OUN/LAW and perhaps DUA. MVFR
conditions are expected mainly along and south of I-40 through
at least 15-18Z. Most of the impactful precipitation will end by
14Z with some lingering showers and storms across southern
Oklahoma and northern Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  45  68  47 /  60   0   0   0
Hobart OK         69  43  70  47 /  50   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  70  47  71  47 /  80   0   0   0
Gage OK           69  38  72  46 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     70  42  71  44 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         71  51  71  49 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ023>025-027>031-
     035>042-044>046.

TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ083-085-086-090.

&&

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...06

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
352 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 AM     Flash Flood      4 N Duncan              34.56N 97.97W
05/02/2025                   Stephens           OK   Trained Spotter

            Roadway flooding along US Highway 81 north
            of Duncan.

&&

OUN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
357 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

OKZ037-044-TXZ086-020930-
Tillman OK-Cotton OK-Wichita TX-
357 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Cotton, southeastern
Tillman and northeastern Wichita Counties through 430 AM CDT...

At 356 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Devol, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Burkburnett, Walters, Temple, Randlett, Devol, Cookietown, and
Taylor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3421 9870 3445 9833 3445 9830 3447 9829
      3447 9828 3429 9813 3425 9814 3416 9836
      3415 9838 3414 9839 3406 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 0856Z 236DEG 32KT 3418 9857

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Bunker

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