Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
231 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 223 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

 - Severe storms and heavy rainfall expected early Friday
   morning. Flash flood/flood threat continues across southern
   into parts of central Oklahoma.

 - Dry this weekend.

 - A stormy pattern returns next week with storms and heavy
   rainfall, especially late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms have developed near a frontal
boundary across the Red River in southwestern Oklahoma and far
northern Texas.  Meanwhile, a small cluster of storms is moving
quickly across west central/central Oklahoma.  Strong outflow winds
associated with the smaller cluster should reinforce the frontal
boundary near the Red River, where storms have been training.
Most CAMS merge the storms into a larger MCS and move the complex
into eastern Oklahoma by 12Z Friday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible through the morning and
afternoon, within an area of mid-level convergence. This will
likely setup across central Oklahoma early Friday morning and will
gradually shift southward during the late morning and afternoon.

Clouds will clear from north to south this afternoon and into
tonight, as a trough moves southeast across the central and southern
Plains.  Relatively dry air will advect southward across Oklahoma
and northern Texas late this afternoon and tonight.  This will allow
temperatures to cool into the 40s by early Saturday morning. Lower
30s are possible across far northwestern Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

A mid and upper ridge will build into the central part of the U.S.
over the weekend.  This will bring a mainly clear sky with cool
nights and warm daytime temperatures.  A northerly wind on Saturday
will shift to a southerly direction on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

By late Monday into Tuesday, a large trough/low across the
southwestern U.S. will begin to lift across West Texas and part
of the southern and central Plains.  This is expected to bring
another round of strong thunderstorms, with an increase risk of
heavy rainfall and flooding. By mid-week, the mid and upper low will
move little, with ridging to the west and east. Confidence in
this solution is not high, but would keep the area in at least a
chance of showers and storms from Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

Thunderstorm intensity is increasing across west central Oklahoma
and near a frontal boundary near the Red River. CAMs are in
general agreement in merging the two areas shortly after 9Z. Very
strong winds and hail will be possible with the stronger storms
and will mainly impact OKC/OUN/LAW and perhaps DUA. MVFR
conditions are expected mainly along and south of I-40 through
at least 15-18Z. Most of the impactful precipitation will end by
14Z with some lingering showers and storms across southern
Oklahoma and northern Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  45  68  47 /  60   0   0   0
Hobart OK         69  43  70  47 /  50   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  70  47  71  47 /  80   0   0   0
Gage OK           69  38  72  46 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     70  42  71  44 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         71  51  71  49 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ023>025-027>031-
     035>042-044>046.

TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ083-085-086-090.

&&

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...06

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
345 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

OKZ026-030>032-020915-
Pottawatomie OK-Hughes OK-Seminole OK-Lincoln OK-
345 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Seminole,
southeastern Lincoln, northern Pottawatomie and northwestern Hughes
Counties through 415 AM CDT...

At 344 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles southwest of Cromwell to 3 miles north
of Little to near Shawnee. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shawnee, Seminole, Tecumseh, Prague, Meeker, Earlsboro, Cromwell,
Johnson, Little, Bethel Acres, Aydelotte, and Centerview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 9651 3526 9674 3527 9708 3559 9679
      3562 9662 3540 9662 3540 9660 3541 9658
      3539 9654 3541 9654 3544 9657 3545 9655
      3543 9649 3546 9648 3546 9645 3529 9644
      3529 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0844Z 220DEG 29KT 3529 9649 3539 9665 3534 9692

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Bunker

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
352 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 AM     Flash Flood      4 N Duncan              34.56N 97.97W
05/02/2025                   Stephens           OK   Trained Spotter

            Roadway flooding along US Highway 81 north
            of Duncan.

&&

OUN

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