Tornado Warning 38, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms expected through Sunday.

- Severe weather risk this afternoon and tonight, mainly across
  eastern portions of western-north Texas into south-central and
  southeast Oklahoma.

- Heavy rainfall potential increases this evening and overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

See previous discussions regarding this morning's severe/hydro
event prior to daybreak.

Cyclogenesis will occur this morning across central Oklahoma as the
compact upper-level low sweeps through. Given the widespread storms
this past night, the mid-60s dewpoints will remain limited to the
Red River Valley, but mid-50s dewpoints will reach up to the OK/KS
border. CAMs are in good agreement that an arc of shallow convection
will develop along the Pacific front as it rapidly sweeps east of I-
35. Instability will be limited, but wind profiles will favor a
gusty wind/brief tornado threat across southeast Oklahoma where
richer boundary-layer moisture exists.

The arrival of the Pacific front will signal drier air coming in
from the west and the long-awaited conclusion to this weekend's rain
event. Heights will rise through tonight as a subtropical ridge
tries to become dominant across the region. Highs today will
generally be in the 60s, and with drier air coming in, lows will be
able to get into the 40s tonight.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Zonal flow remains on Monday on the periphery of the subtropical
ridge. Pressure falls will begin in the afternoon across the Central
High Plains, so southerly winds and temperatures warming well into
the 70s can be expected across our area.

The mid-level flow pattern becomes very nebulous by Tuesday with the
primary trough moving through the northern Plains. With that said,
there will be about 20-25 knots of 500 mb flow from the southwest.
For the first time in 2025, the moist sector will likely extend west
of the 100th meridian. NBM PoPS between 00Z and 06Z on Wednesday are
rather impressive for a dryline setup, reaching 80 percent. While
this does seem a bit high, the presence of a 40 knot LLJ will likely
promote upscale growth and eastward propagation of whatever storms
do form out on the Caprock.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Subtle flow regimes don't tend to lend themselves to crashing cold
fronts. It seems plausible that a nocturnal MCS on Tuesday night
creates a cold pool that pushes the deep moisture south of our area,
but otherwise mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints will remain across our area
with the dryline in the Panhandles on Wednesday. That means another
round of storms, possible severe weather, and potentially increasing
hydro issues.

The mid-level flow gets a little stronger on Thursday, and there's
an indication that a synoptic-scale frontal boundary will start to
impinge on at least the central Plains. Rain and storm chances will
continue on Thursday and Friday, but after that the pattern gets
murkier.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Repeated rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain continue tonight,
particularly in southern and southeastern Oklahoma. The bulk of
the heavy rain should end between 10Z and 12Z, to be replaced by
IFR/LIFR ceilings across much of the area and winds shifting from
northerly back to easterly. A front will move west to east across
the area during the morning hours. Along the front, a final round
of showers and thunderstorms will push through. Behind the front,
winds will shift to westerly and skies will gradually become VFR.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  45  75  53 /  80   0   0   0
Hobart OK         65  44  77  52 /  80   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  47  79  53 /  30   0   0   0
Gage OK           64  41  79  52 / 100   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     61  41  77  52 /  90   0   0   0
Durant OK         72  49  78  54 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ008-012-013-018>020-
     023>032-037>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1019 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     Flash Flood      3 S Moore               35.30N 97.48W
04/19/2025                   Cleveland          OK   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland/Yard/Basement Flooding.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     Flash Flood      3 S Moore               35.30N 97.50W
04/19/2025                   Cleveland          OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1021 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     Hail             2 SW Ardmore            34.16N 97.16W
04/19/2025  M1.00 Inch       Carter             OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1023 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     Flood            2 N Ardmore             34.21N 97.14W
04/19/2025                   Carter             OK   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     Hail             3 W Durant              34.00N 96.43W
04/19/2025  M1.25 Inch       Bryan              OK   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
115 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Tornado          Courtney                33.94N 97.51W
04/19/2025                   Love               OK   Emergency Mngr

            Corrects time for previous tornado report
            from Courtney. Powerlines down, sheds and
            barns damaged on Belleville Road in
            Courtney.

&&