Tornado Warning 34, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms expected through Sunday.

- Severe weather risk this afternoon and tonight, mainly across
  eastern portions of western-north Texas into south-central and
  southeast Oklahoma.

- Heavy rainfall potential increases this evening and overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The cold front remains draped across western-north Texas into south-
central Oklahoma this morning with isentropic showers overrunning
the surface front into southern and central Oklahoma. Cool post-
frontal temperatures are expected to persist across much of Oklahoma
today, with persistent low-level moisture and stratus present.
Drizzle to light rain showers are expected to continue on and off
throughout the day across northern and western Oklahoma (behind the
front). Breaking in the clouds across portions of central and north
Texas ahead of the front is giving way to increasing temperatures
warming into the 70s. Initial convection late this afternoon will
develop along the front where a differential heating boundary exists
all the way down to the Permian Basin and up into western-north
Texas. Storms will move northeast across the Red River and into
southern and central Oklahoma this evening. Forcing for ascent and
instability will reside mostly along the front and ahead of the
boundary, respectively. Thus, there remains a small corridor across
north Texas and into southern Oklahoma where the severe threat
exists, including all hazards of large hail, damaging winds and a
tornado or two. Once storms move north of the cold front, the severe
weather threat will decrease, but large hail and damaging winds will
remain possible with the presence of elevated instability in the
cooler post-frontal airmass. Continuous showers and storms, along
with heavy rainfall rates with thunderstorms, along and south/east
of the I-44 corridor will give way to an increased potential for
flooding with widespread 2 to 3 inches of rain and localized higher
amounts up to 5+ inches possible.

As the upper trough approaches late tonight, the cold front will
begin to push southward. However, continued moist isentropic lift
coupled with the forcing from the upper low will give way to
continued shower and thunderstorm activity overnight tonight. The
severe weather threat will begin to decrease into the overnight
hours with the bulk of instability to the south. Strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms may persist with hail and damaging winds will
remain the main threats, but by the early morning hours, flooding
will become the primary hazards due to hours of continued
rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The upper trough will dig northeast across Oklahoma Sunday morning
with a Pacific front bringing in dry air from the west. Thus,
precipitation chances will diminish through the morning hours Sunday
from west to east. Lingering wrap around moisture may give way to a
few additional showers and thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma
through the early afternoon hours before all precipitation comes to
an end by Sunday evening. Clearing skies with the incoming dry
airmass will help to give way to daytime heating and highs in the
60s. Southerly return flow Monday under zonal flow aloft will give
way to pleasantly dry and warm weather with highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The next broad mid-level trough develops over the Western United
States early in the week, and a series of shortwaves are expected
to move toward the southern Plains in the southwest flow aloft
through the week. As these shortwaves eject toward the Plains,
areas of showers and storms will again affect the area as early as
Tuesday afternoon, with chances persisting through the remainder
of the week. Specific timing of the most widespread precipitation
may shift as we go forward as timing of individual shortwaves is
challenging this far in advance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Ceilings will be variable across the area through tonight with
some locations having LIFR/IFR ceilings. Ceilings will gradually
improve Sunday with clouds decreasing Sunday afternoon.
Showers/storms will continue across the area tonight into at least
Sunday morning. Some of the storms could produce hail and strong
variable wind gusts. Winds will shift later tonight into Sunday
as a Pacific front and sfc low moves across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  63  44  74 / 100  70   0   0
Hobart OK         47  65  43  77 / 100  60   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  69  46  78 / 100  20   0   0
Gage OK           41  62  41  79 /  90  90   0   0
Ponca City OK     49  62  39  76 / 100  90   0   0
Durant OK         62  72  48  77 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ008-012-013-018>020-
     023>032-037>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1012 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     Tornado          3 NE Ada                34.81N 96.62W
04/19/2025                   Pontotoc           OK   Official NWS Obs

            TDS noted on KTLX.

&&

21

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1016 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     Flash Flood      1 SW Moore              35.33N 97.50W
04/19/2025                   Cleveland          OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1019 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     Flash Flood      3 S Moore               35.30N 97.48W
04/19/2025                   Cleveland          OK   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland/Yard/Basement Flooding.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     Flash Flood      3 S Moore               35.30N 97.50W
04/19/2025                   Cleveland          OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1021 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     Hail             2 SW Ardmore            34.16N 97.16W
04/19/2025  M1.00 Inch       Carter             OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1023 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     Flood            2 N Ardmore             34.21N 97.14W
04/19/2025                   Carter             OK   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;.

&&