Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

-Potentially life-threatening flash flood/flood threat through
Wednesday.

-Severe thunderstorms with all hazards possible through Wednesday.

-Unsettled weather will moderate over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Significant flash flooding and severe thunderstorms (all hazards)
continue to be the headlines in the short term.

As one round of showers and storms moves out, we can see the next
round developing in north and west Texas. In general, CAMs seem to
be running on the slow side. While CAMs suggest a break in storms,
radar trends suggest there may not be much of a break. Thus far, 24-
hr rainfall amounts have been 1 to 2.5 inches along the I-44
corridor with locally higher amounts. Another 1 to 3 inches is
expected over the next 12-18 hours, mainly over southern Oklahoma
and north Texas. This is on top of an area that already has numerous
flash flood warnings.

As mentioned in the previous AFD, all other convective hazards
remain possible-especially south of the boundary. Those hazards will
be dictated by convective mode...with the best chance of
discrete/supercell storms over the Red River Valley and points
south. Otherwise, convective segments/clusters also have readily
produced damaging wind gusts within this airmass.

CAMs depict the last round Wednesday afternoon / evening. This round
appears to be more progressive and much smaller in areal extent,
though confidence in CAM predictions out this far is low due to
effects from convection between now and then.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Thursday should give us a brief lull in rain, with another wave (and
associated rain chances) moving through Thursday night into Friday
morning. Thursday should be mostly sunny and mild. Friday will be
mostly cloudy and slightly cooler.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Low amplitude ridging aloft will briefly influence our weather into
the weekend before another western U.S. storm system deepens during
the Sunday/Monday timeframe with some signals of unsettled weather
for the southern Plains again by the first half of next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms (with some uncertainty in
timing) continue across the forecast area through at least Wednesday
morning. Periods of reduced visibilities and MVFR (and sometimes
IFR) ceilings will also continue through this time period.
Outflow from storm activity will likely keep surface winds
variable in direction.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  55  78  56 / 100  60  10  60
Hobart OK         71  51  78  55 /  80  50   0  60
Wichita Falls TX  75  53  80  58 /  90  40   0  50
Gage OK           72  47  76  50 /  50  30  20  60
Ponca City OK     71  55  77  54 /  90  60  20  50
Durant OK         74  60  82  61 / 100  60   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ008-012-013-016>048-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1113 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

OKZ031-032-042-300445-
Pontotoc OK-Hughes OK-Seminole OK-
1113 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Seminole,
northeastern Pontotoc and western Hughes Counties through 1145 PM
CDT...

At 1113 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Seminole to 3 miles
southeast of Ada. Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ada, Holdenville, Wewoka, Wetumka, Allen, Francis, Cromwell, Sasakwa,
Horntown, Yeager, Atwood, Spaulding, and Lima.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 9617 3463 9664 3530 9661 3543 9650
      3544 9648 3545 9649 3546 9647 3546 9646
      3545 9644 3529 9644 3529 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 218DEG 52KT 3528 9658 3475 9661

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

OKZ050-300445-
Love OK-
1121 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Love County through
1145 PM CDT...

At 1121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from 6 miles north of Burneyville to 8 miles
west of Thackerville. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marietta, Thackerville, Overbrook, Burneyville, and southern Lake
Murray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 9715 3380 9721 3384 9717 3390 9719
      3391 9723 3386 9726 3389 9731 3385 9733
      3386 9733 3387 9734 3404 9733 3407 9725
      3407 9697 3389 9698 3384 9704 3386 9707
      3385 9709 3382 9705 3380 9709 3373 9709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 253DEG 14KT 3399 9726 3376 9727

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

TXZ083>085-087-088-300500-
Foard TX-Knox TX-Wilbarger TX-Baylor TX-Hardeman TX-
1124 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Foard,
northeastern Knox, western Wilbarger, northwestern Baylor and
southern Hardeman Counties through MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1123 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 4
miles southwest of Quanah, 5 miles southwest of Thalia, and 5 miles
west of Vera. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Quanah, Crowell, Chillicothe, Red Springs, Thalia, Gilliland,
Margaret, Lockett, Lake Kemp, Vera, Medicine Mound, Odell, Truscott,
Rayland, and Copper Breaks State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 9990 3438 9944 3437 9944 3437 9943
      3438 9943 3438 9942 3437 9941 3438 9940
      3439 9933 3362 9915 3356 9978
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 244DEG 33KT 3426 9981 3394 9962 3363 9967

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NW Seymour            33.62N 99.30W
04/29/2025  M106 MPH         Baylor             TX   Mesonet

            Winds gusted at to 58 mph or higher from 654
            PM to 718 PM at West Texas Mesonet Station.
            There were frequent gusts over 90 mph
            between 700 and 709 PM. Southwest winds
            gusted to 100 mph at 701 PM, and north winds
            gusted to 106 mph at 708 PM. Updates
            previous storm report.

&&

JH