Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

-Potentially life-threatening flash flood/flood threat through
Wednesday.

-Severe thunderstorms with all hazards possible through Wednesday.

-Unsettled weather will moderate over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The screaming message of this forecast update is the potential for
significant and/or potentially life-threatening flash flood/flood
hazards through the next 24+ hours. A secondary but notable risk for
severe convective storms/tornadoes is also present...particularly
over western north Texas and southern Oklahoma.

Current mesoanalysis shows an effective frontal boundary moving
southward and oriented along/south of the I44 corridor. The
airmass south of this boundary is destabilizing yet again, and has
proven to support all severe weather modes in recent days.
Several perturbations embedded within persistent southwesterly
flow aloft will continue to support multiple convective complexes
through tonight (and into Wednesday). Given anomalously moist
atmospheric profiles with PWATs 1.2-1.5 inches, the potential for
training heavy rainfall is high. This atop a footprint of 7-day
rainfall totals generally ranging from 4-8+ inches over
southwestern and south- central Oklahoma...including the OKC Metro
area. Current MRMS FLASH continues to show saturated surface
conditions from the Wichita Mountains northeastward through the
central Oklahoma/OKC Metro, so any additional convective rains
will be problematic.

Unfortunately, all other convective hazard will also be possible-
especially south of the boundary. Those hazards will be dictated by
convective mode...with the best chance of discrete/supercell storms
over the Red River Valley and points south. Otherwise, convective
segments/clusters also have readily produced damaging wind gusts
within this airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The active weather described above will persist through
Wednesday as the upper air low now over northern Arizona begins to
approach the region. DESI probabilistic data suggests 85%
probability of >3 inch rainfall along the I44 corridor of
southwestern Oklahoma by 1 pm Wednesday, and >50% of >5 inches.
Some high resolution models suggest localized QPFs >8+ inches may
not be out of the question somewhere over western north Texas
and/or south-central Oklahoma. Unfortunately, this would include
the Lawton area proper - where impactful flooding has already
occurred - and areas eastward across the Arbuckle Mountains (a
known flood-prone part of south-central Oklahoma).

Again, all convective hazards will be possible, and largely
contingent upon the mesoscale evolution of surface features and
influences of preceding convection. The most likely scenarios
appear to support a southward frontal position which may
effectively make flash flooding a notably greater risk than
tornadoes/damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The parent upper air low which has instigated much of the
recent active weather will eventually eject eastward late
Wednesday and early Thursday. Low amplitude ridging aloft will
briefly influence our weather into the weekend before another
western U.S. storm system deepens during the Sunday/Monday
timeframe with some signals of unsettled weather for the southern
Plains again by the first half of next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Ongoing rounds of showers & thunderstorms will continue to affect
all of our terminals at least through 19Z while periods of reduced
visibilities and lowered ceiling to MVFR conditions to IFR
conditions for short periods. A cold front remains stalled nearly
along the Red River with surface winds out of the northeast
behind the front. However, outflow from storm activity will likely
keep surface winds variable in direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  70  54  76 / 100  90  70  10
Hobart OK         56  72  50  77 / 100  80  50   0
Wichita Falls TX  60  76  53  80 /  90  90  40   0
Gage OK           51  73  47  74 /  70  60  40  20
Ponca City OK     57  71  55  76 /  90  80  70  30
Durant OK         65  74  62  82 /  70 100  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for OKZ008-012-013-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...68

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1113 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

OKZ031-032-042-300445-
Pontotoc OK-Hughes OK-Seminole OK-
1113 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Seminole,
northeastern Pontotoc and western Hughes Counties through 1145 PM
CDT...

At 1113 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Seminole to 3 miles
southeast of Ada. Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ada, Holdenville, Wewoka, Wetumka, Allen, Francis, Cromwell, Sasakwa,
Horntown, Yeager, Atwood, Spaulding, and Lima.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 9617 3463 9664 3530 9661 3543 9650
      3544 9648 3545 9649 3546 9647 3546 9646
      3545 9644 3529 9644 3529 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 218DEG 52KT 3528 9658 3475 9661

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

OKZ050-300445-
Love OK-
1121 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Love County through
1145 PM CDT...

At 1121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from 6 miles north of Burneyville to 8 miles
west of Thackerville. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marietta, Thackerville, Overbrook, Burneyville, and southern Lake
Murray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 9715 3380 9721 3384 9717 3390 9719
      3391 9723 3386 9726 3389 9731 3385 9733
      3386 9733 3387 9734 3404 9733 3407 9725
      3407 9697 3389 9698 3384 9704 3386 9707
      3385 9709 3382 9705 3380 9709 3373 9709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 253DEG 14KT 3399 9726 3376 9727

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

TXZ083>085-087-088-300500-
Foard TX-Knox TX-Wilbarger TX-Baylor TX-Hardeman TX-
1124 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Foard,
northeastern Knox, western Wilbarger, northwestern Baylor and
southern Hardeman Counties through MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1123 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 4
miles southwest of Quanah, 5 miles southwest of Thalia, and 5 miles
west of Vera. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Quanah, Crowell, Chillicothe, Red Springs, Thalia, Gilliland,
Margaret, Lockett, Lake Kemp, Vera, Medicine Mound, Odell, Truscott,
Rayland, and Copper Breaks State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 9990 3438 9944 3437 9944 3437 9943
      3438 9943 3438 9942 3437 9941 3438 9940
      3439 9933 3362 9915 3356 9978
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 244DEG 33KT 3426 9981 3394 9962 3363 9967

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NW Seymour            33.62N 99.30W
04/29/2025  M106 MPH         Baylor             TX   Mesonet

            Winds gusted at to 58 mph or higher from 654
            PM to 718 PM at West Texas Mesonet Station.
            There were frequent gusts over 90 mph
            between 700 and 709 PM. Southwest winds
            gusted to 100 mph at 701 PM, and north winds
            gusted to 106 mph at 708 PM. Updates
            previous storm report.

&&

JH