Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
206 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly moves across the region early this morning,
stalling to the south this afternoon. A wave of low pressure travels
along the front impacting the area this afternoon into Friday
morning. High pressure builds in behind the exiting system late
Friday and remains in control through Saturday night. High
pressure remains nearby through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points:

* A FLOOD WATCH is in effect from 2pm this afternoon until 8am Fri.

* A period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible this
  afternoon into early tonight night. A widespread 1.5-3 inches of
  rainfall is likely, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall rates
  could exceed 2+ inches across part of the area.

A frontal boundary is slowly sagging south through the area early
this morning and is expected to stall nearby to the south this
afternoon. Simultaneously, a frontal wave will develop near the
Delmarva region and track eastward to our southwest this afternoon.
The development of this low pressure wave will be aided by its
location in the right entrance region of a jet streak located to our
north. By daybreak Friday, this frontal wave will begin a
progressive exit offshore to our southeast.

A Flood Watch will take effect this afternoon and remain in place
through Friday morning for the window of heaviest rainfall
anticipated. Expected rainfall across the area will be around 1.5 to
3 inches. Isolated amounts of up to 5 inches are possible. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 inches are likely across the area. Rainfall rates could
exceed 2"/hr across parts of Long Island, NYC, and Union, Essex, &
Hudson counties. 00Z CAMs bring higher instability to these southern
areas this afternoon and evening. MUCAPE here may range from 1,000-
2,000 J/kg this afternoon and evening before quickly dropping off.
While less instability is expected for areas north, 0-6 km Bulk
Shear across the entire CWA could range from 50-70 kt, which is
enough to anticipate convection anywhere today. Though, still the
best chances for this are to the south. The anticipated convection
lines up with the best window for the highest rainfall rates, which
may lie between 2pm to midnight today. Tall skinny CAPE profiles
support this. PWATs should range from 2 to 2.5 inches, which is
anomalously high.

The stalled front to our south will begin to push further away to
our south into late Thursday night as a frontal wave starts to
progressively exit to our southeast. This leads to heavy rainfall
tapering NW to SE due to lack of forcing and loss of instability.
Area-wide showers may still linger into late Thursday night, but
will no longer be intense. However, should any areas experience
flooding prior to this, the additional rainfall may only prolong
flooding. Rainfall will begin to taper altogether NW to SE by
daybreak Friday.

A 30-40 kt NE/ENE-oriented LLJ may enhance winds late Thursday into
Thursday night with winds gusting 25 to 35 mph.

Temperatures will be cooler today with highs topping off in the
mid/low 80s for areas south and only reaching the mid/upper 70s for
northern interior locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A wave of low pressure will exit progressively out to sea to our
southeast early on Friday. This will lead to rainfall tapering NW to
SE Friday morning. Most should be dry by Friday afternoon. Any
lingering showers into the afternoon would likely be for far
southeastern locations of Suffolk and New London counties.

High pressure builds in late Friday and will then remain in control
through Saturday night. This will lead to clear skies by Friday
night with plenty of sunshine on Saturday. Abnormally cool
temperatures on Friday with highs in the mid/low 70s could lead
to possible record minimum high temperatures being broken or
tied. Saturday may see a few return to the low 80s, but fair
weather for the start of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control through the second half of the
weekend and into the first half of next week. A quasi-zonal regime
aloft will take shape with a low amplitude trough developing in the
Midwest and the Ohio valley Monday and Tuesday. This feature should
not draw close enough to result in any sensible weather change until
mid week the earliest, towards Wednesday. Thus look for dry
conditions through at least Tuesday night and seasonable
temperatures throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front slowly moves in and stalls over the region today,
before pushing just to the south tonight.

Showers/rain becomes more widespread with a TEMPO group for
TSRA. Cigs lower to MVFR with pockets of IFR vsbys in any
heavier rain or thunderstorms. IFR cigs are more likely towards
00z. Rain continues through the night with the steadiest /
heaviest rain subsiding towards 04z at most terminals. A lighter
rain prevails for the remainder of tonight and into Friday
morning.

E/NE winds 10-15 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts by 04-06Z
tonight. Winds will remain gusty through the day on Friday.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There remains uncertainty in the timing of gusts arriving after 00z
out of the E/NE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: Mainly MVFR in the morning as showers end early with winds
NE10-17g25kt. VFR develops in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR. NE winds gusts 15-20 kt early, diminishing by
afternoon.

Sunday-Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on all waters with waves on ocean waters are expected to climb
today, reaching SCA criteria by this evening and remaining so
through Friday evening. A few isolated gale-force gusts are
possible on Friday. A SCA is issued for all waters starting late
tonight through Friday evening. Winds are then expected to drop
below 25 kt early Friday night, but 5 ft waves could linger
through early Saturday morning on ocean waters. Thereafter, all
waters will be below SCA criteria under high pressure Saturday
into Saturday night.

Sub advisory conditions take place on the coastal waters for the
second half of the weekend and into the first half of next week with
a light pressure gradient due to a high pressure regime remaining in
control.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
* Flood Watch in effect from 2pm today through 8am Friday.

A widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected this
afternoon into Friday. Rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches with
localized amounts up to 5 inches across the southern portions of
the CWA will be possible. Rainfall rates could exceed 2+ inches
per hour.

WPC has outlined the entire region in a slight risk of excessive
rainfall for much of the area, with a moderate risk for NE NJ.
Urban, poor drainage and riverine flash flooding will be possible.

Dry weather returns Friday night with no hydrologic concerns through
early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an overall low rip current risk for ocean beaches today
due to a 1-3 ft S/SE swell and 1 to 2 ft wind waves. Rip
currents likely increase to high by Friday given increased
waves, 5 ft surf height, and a persistent 15-25kt E/NE flow.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Flood Watch through Friday morning for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch through Friday morning for NYZ067>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...Flood Watch through Friday morning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...20
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
134 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

NJZ004-103-104-011745-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
134 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NJZ006-105>108-011745-
Hudson-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
134 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-NYZ067>071-078>081-177-179-011745-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
134 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ072>075-176-178-011745-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
134 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-011745-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
134 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ338-355-011745-
New York Harbor-Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
134 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
205 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

NYZ078>081-311845-
Southwest Suffolk NY-Northwest Suffolk NY-Southeast Suffolk NY-
Northeast Suffolk NY-
205 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY THROUGH
245 PM EDT...

At 205 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Centereach, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Centereach, Medford, Ronkonkoma, Manorville, Stony Brook, Middle
Island, Port Jefferson, Wading River, Coram, Holbrook, Farmingville,
Rocky Point, Mount Sinai, Calverton, and Yaphank.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4092 7323 4093 7317 4095 7317 4099 7309
      4099 7279 4086 7271 4076 7313
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 245DEG 13KT 4088 7310

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
212 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

NJZ004-105-311900-
Western Essex NJ-Eastern Passaic NJ-
212 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN PASSAIC AND NORTHWESTERN
ESSEX COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 210 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bloomfield, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paterson, Passaic, Caldwell, Fairfield, Clifton, Montclair, Little
Falls, Verona, Cedar Grove, Woodland Park, Totowa, West Caldwell,
Haledon, North Caldwell, and Prospect Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
Essex County in northeastern New Jersey.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 7432 4091 7429 4089 7428 4090 7427
      4091 7427 4093 7429 4094 7414 4092 7414
      4092 7413 4089 7413 4087 7411 4083 7415
      4085 7418 4082 7418 4081 7434 4086 7432
      4087 7434 4089 7434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 277DEG 19KT 4083 7419

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
300 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

NYZ176-177-311945-
Northern Queens NY-Northern Nassau NY-
300 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT QUEENS AND NORTHWESTERN NASSAU
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 259 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Port Washington to near Little Neck. These
storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Glen Cove, Great Neck, Forest Hills, Bayside, Whitestone, Port
Washington, Manhasset, Sands Point, Little Neck, Manorhaven, Kings
Point, Sea Cliff, Glen Head, Glenwood Landing, and Lake Success.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
Queens County New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 7391 4080 7380 4080 7379 4081 7379
      4081 7377 4085 7375 4087 7368 4086 7366
      4088 7365 4090 7358 4078 7364 4077 7370
      4073 7376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 246DEG 4KT 4082 7370 4074 7374

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
305 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     Flash Flood      2 SSW Bayside           40.77N 73.78W
07/31/2025                   Queens             NY   Dept of Highways

            Flooding on I-295 both directions at 35th
            Avenue (New York) All lanes blocked.

&&

JMC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
306 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     Flash Flood      2 N Fresh Meadows       40.76N 73.78W
07/31/2025                   Queens             NY   Dept of Highways

            Flooding on I-295 both directions at
            Northern Boulevard; NY 25A (New York) All
            lanes blocked.

&&

JMC