Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

- Ongoing river flooding remains a concern, but levels are
  gradually falling.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
  A few storms could be severe, posing threats for damaging winds
  and hail.

- The forecast for this weekend calls for sunny skies and mild
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

The first line of showers and isolated thunderstorms are pushing
east out of the area. Dry weather will settle in for much of the
afternoon ahead of our next round of showers and thunderstorms
this evening. Afternoon sun and southerly winds will warm highs
back into the 70s across the area. A broad low and upper level
trough over the Great Lakes will push a cold front into our area
later this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire
ahead of this front and as a trough axis moves in mainly after
3-4 PM. They will work west to east through about midnight. The
afternoon sunshine will help to push CAPE values 500-1500 j/kg
this afternoon into the evening. We will see effective shear push
to 25-35 knots with good lapse rates, this will lead to some
organized storms. Soundings show inverted Vs which will lead to
gusty winds with any of the stronger cells. Given the amount of
CAPE in the hail growth zone, hail up to 1.50" will be possible
with any of the more organized cells. There is a lack of low level
shear and there is little to no turning with height, this will
keep the tornado threat very very low.

The trough axis will linger over Middle TN into Friday. This will
keep lingering showers over the Plateau tonight and scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms redevelop tomorrow afternoon
mainly from I-40 south. No severe weather is expected on Friday
but can't rule out some small hail with any stronger cells. Lows
tonight fall into the 40s and cooler weather returns Friday with
highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Upper level ridging will build in from the west with a surface
high drifting south over the region. This will bring quiet and
nice weather for the weekend. Northerly winds will keep things
cool on Saturday and Saturday night with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s and lows in the 30s. Southerly winds warm things up
Sunday and Monday with highs pushing back into the 70s to around
80. Upper level trough and surface low will tack over southern
Canada Monday night into Tuesday pushing a cold front south, this
will bring a low chance low chance for showers over the Plateau
Monday evening into Monday night. The temperatures roller coaster
will continue and cool air will filter in behind the front for
the middle part of the week. Highs drop back down into the 60s
with lows in the 40s. We will see some warming towards the end of
the week as a upper level ridge to our west pushes east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

SH and TS today at all TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Winds
will become variable and light this evening after sunset, picking
up tomorrow out of the north after the front comes through.
Ceilings will lower to IFR conditions by tomorrow morning at all
TAF sites as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  62  40  63 /  60  40   0   0
Clarksville    46  60  37  62 /  50  20   0   0
Crossville     43  55  34  56 /  80  60   0   0
Columbia       46  61  38  62 /  60  50   0   0
Cookeville     45  56  37  57 /  80  60   0   0
Jamestown      44  54  35  56 /  70  60   0   0
Lawrenceburg   46  61  38  61 /  50  40   0   0
Murfreesboro   45  61  38  62 /  60  50   0   0
Waverly        45  61  38  62 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Holley

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