Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

- Ongoing river flooding remains a concern, but levels are
  gradually falling.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
  A few storms could be severe, posing threats for damaging winds
  and hail.

- The forecast for this weekend calls for sunny skies and mild
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

The first line of showers and isolated thunderstorms are pushing
east out of the area. Dry weather will settle in for much of the
afternoon ahead of our next round of showers and thunderstorms
this evening. Afternoon sun and southerly winds will warm highs
back into the 70s across the area. A broad low and upper level
trough over the Great Lakes will push a cold front into our area
later this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire
ahead of this front and as a trough axis moves in mainly after
3-4 PM. They will work west to east through about midnight. The
afternoon sunshine will help to push CAPE values 500-1500 j/kg
this afternoon into the evening. We will see effective shear push
to 25-35 knots with good lapse rates, this will lead to some
organized storms. Soundings show inverted Vs which will lead to
gusty winds with any of the stronger cells. Given the amount of
CAPE in the hail growth zone, hail up to 1.50" will be possible
with any of the more organized cells. There is a lack of low level
shear and there is little to no turning with height, this will
keep the tornado threat very very low.

The trough axis will linger over Middle TN into Friday. This will
keep lingering showers over the Plateau tonight and scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms redevelop tomorrow afternoon
mainly from I-40 south. No severe weather is expected on Friday
but can't rule out some small hail with any stronger cells. Lows
tonight fall into the 40s and cooler weather returns Friday with
highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Upper level ridging will build in from the west with a surface
high drifting south over the region. This will bring quiet and
nice weather for the weekend. Northerly winds will keep things
cool on Saturday and Saturday night with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s and lows in the 30s. Southerly winds warm things up
Sunday and Monday with highs pushing back into the 70s to around
80. Upper level trough and surface low will tack over southern
Canada Monday night into Tuesday pushing a cold front south, this
will bring a low chance low chance for showers over the Plateau
Monday evening into Monday night. The temperatures roller coaster
will continue and cool air will filter in behind the front for
the middle part of the week. Highs drop back down into the 60s
with lows in the 40s. We will see some warming towards the end of
the week as a upper level ridge to our west pushes east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

SH and TS today at all TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Winds
will become variable and light this evening after sunset, picking
up tomorrow out of the north after the front comes through.
Ceilings will lower to IFR conditions by tomorrow morning at all
TAF sites as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  62  40  63 /  60  40   0   0
Clarksville    46  60  37  62 /  50  20   0   0
Crossville     43  55  34  56 /  80  60   0   0
Columbia       46  61  38  62 /  60  50   0   0
Cookeville     45  56  37  57 /  80  60   0   0
Jamestown      44  54  35  56 /  70  60   0   0
Lawrenceburg   46  61  38  61 /  50  40   0   0
Murfreesboro   45  61  38  62 /  60  50   0   0
Waverly        45  61  38  62 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Holley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
354 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

TNZ023-024-102145-
Humphreys TN-Houston TN-
354 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HOUSTON AND NORTHERN
HUMPHREYS COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 354 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springville, or 12 miles south of Paris Landing State Park, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Houston County Airport, McEwen, Waverly, Tennessee Ridge, and Camden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 8753 3621 8755 3618 8757 3616 8756
      3600 8762 3612 8793 3613 8792 3617 8792
      3618 8793 3622 8795 3626 8794 3628 8795
      3635 8797
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 293DEG 26KT 3626 8803

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

10

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
357 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     Hail             4 E Orlinda             36.59N 86.60W
04/10/2025  E0.70 Inch       Robertson          TN   Emergency Mngr

            Pea to dime size hail near Hwy 52 and I-65.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
357 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

TNZ007-008-102145-
Robertson TN-Sumner TN-
357 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SUMNER AND
NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 357 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Portland, or 15 miles northwest of Gallatin, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Portland, Bethpage, Mitchellville, Oak Grove, Westmoreland, Cross
Plains, and Orlinda.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 114 and 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8631 3663 8621 3655 8622 3650 8622
      3648 8624 3648 8623 3645 8624 3645 8626
      3643 8627 3642 8632 3656 8668 3665 8663
      3665 8659 3663 8657 3665 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 294DEG 21KT 3659 8657

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

10

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>