Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1054 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1054 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- A Heat Advisory is now in effect for Thursday afternoon as Heat
  Index values are expected to climb above 105 degrees west of the
  Cumberland Plateau.

- Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
  foreseeable future.

- The risk of severe weather is low, however, heavy rainfall,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any
  storm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

In this pattern, if you've read one of our forecast discussions,
you've read them all. Rinse and repeat. Tonight, patchy fog will
once again be possible on the Cumberland Plateau, as it has been the
past week or so. In addition, we are monitoring some showers that
have popped up in Middle Tennessee this evening. These showers were
in some CAMs, but not until later in the night. With the tropical
disturbance to our south, thinking has been that this influx of
moisture combined with some subsidence in the area on this side of
the system has caused current guidance to struggle to accurately
depict the coverage (or outright existence) of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. As long as this pattern of warm and
muggy air continues, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will continue
to be a possibility.

A heat advisory is in effect Thursday afternoon for most of the area
except the Cumberland Plateau. Heat indices are expected to get as
high as 107 in some areas. If you plan on doing anything outside
Thursday, or even the rest of the week, remember to stay hydrated
and stay cool with frequent breaks in the shade or the A/C

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Biggest concern the next few days is heat indices, as there are
afternoons this weekend and into next week when they could flirt
with 110 degrees. Most likely scenario is 100 to 105 degrees,
however. We're actively monitoring the situation for the possibility
of more heat advisories being needed. Remember your heat safety tips
and know the signs of heat illness if you have any outdoor plans
into next week.

Second biggest concern is with these diurnal storms, while severe
weather risk is low, hazardous weather could still occur. This
includes heavy rainfall rates that could lead to localized flooding,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds. If you're spending any time
outdoors the next week, make sure you have a plan to keep yourself
safe in case a storm surprises you while you're outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for most of the forecast period. Can't
rule out some light fog at KSRB and KCSV due to light winds, clear
skies, recent rainfall, and high humidity. Elsewhere, no real
aviation concerns except for potential thunderstorms once again
tomorrow afternoon. For now, holding off on any thunder mention
for all TAF sites as confidence is low at the present time.
Wouldn't surprise me if storms formed once again across Middle TN
tomorrow, though coverage may not be as high as recent days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  95  76  92 /  20  50  30  70
Clarksville    75  93  75  89 /  10  50  30  70
Crossville     69  88  69  86 /  60  60  40  80
Columbia       74  93  74  91 /  30  40  20  60
Cookeville     72  89  72  87 /  40  50  30  80
Jamestown      70  88  71  86 /  40  60  40  80
Lawrenceburg   74  92  73  90 /  50  40  30  60
Murfreesboro   74  94  74  92 /  40  50  30  70
Waverly        74  93  74  90 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ005>009-
023>030-056>062-075-093>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Husted