Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 700 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- A Heat Advisory is now in effect for Thursday afternoon as Heat
  Index values are expected to climb above 105 degrees west of the
  Cumberland Plateau.

- Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
  foreseeable future.

- The risk of severe weather is low, however, heavy rainfall,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any
  storm.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to move east this
evening out of the area. Expect a quieter night with lows in the
70s. Forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday Night)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Not a ton going on at forecast time, however we do have some
showers and storms moving across our northern half this morning.
These should be fairly unimpactful other than to say when these
clear out of any given area, the skies will clear out and the heat
and humidity will start to crank up. Additional storm development
is expected this afternoon, much like we've seen the last couple
of weeks -- diurnally driven activity that will die out by the
early evening hours. Of course, any of these storms will run the
risk of lightning, gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Over the next couple of days, much of our weather influences will be
driven by a tropical wave that is moving east to west along the
northern Gulf of America and a weak shortwave just to the north of
Middle TN. The combination of the two are expected to do two things:
increase PoPs chances for our northern half and decrease them for
our southern half as weak subsidence is experienced south of I-40.
This subsidence will also drive up temperatures/dew points a few
more degrees. For this reason, I'm going to go ahead and issue a
Heat Advisory for Thursday afternoon as the coverage of 105-110 Heat
Index values are looking more likely west of the Cumberland Plateau.
This potential will exist on Friday as well, but I think we'll take
the issuance of Heat Advisories one day at a time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Scattered storm chances will persist right through the upcoming
weekend. It is summer, after all. Heat Index values should relax
back below 105 degrees each afternoon, however there are some
indications that by the start of next week, upper ridging will
amplify across the deep south and up into the TN/OH Valleys. While
scattered diurnal storm chances likely will not end, Heat Index
values will probably climb back into at least advisory territory.

In the end, we don't have any organized severe weather threats over
the next 7 days, but if you have outdoor plans, keep an eye on the
sky each afternoon and stay hydrated!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for most of the forecast period. Can't
rule out some light fog at KSRB and KCSV due to light winds, clear
skies, recent rainfall, and high humidity. Elsewhere, no real
aviation concerns except for potential thunderstorms once again
tomorrow afternoon. For now, holding off on any thunder mention
for all TAF sites as confidence is low at the present time.
Wouldn't surprise me if storms formed once again across Middle TN
tomorrow, though coverage may not be as high as recent days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  95  76  93 /  20  40  30  60
Clarksville    75  93  75  91 /  10  40  30  60
Crossville     70  87  69  86 /  30  50  30  80
Columbia       75  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  60
Cookeville     73  89  72  88 /  20  40  30  70
Jamestown      70  87  71  86 /  20  50  40  80
Lawrenceburg   74  92  73  91 /  20  40  20  60
Murfreesboro   75  95  74  93 /  20  40  20  60
Waverly        74  93  74  91 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ005>009-
023>030-056>062-075-093>095.

&&

UPDATE.......Holley
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Husted