Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
736 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon/evening, a small chance
for strong/severe storms mainly in southern MN.

- Lingering shower chances Monday, and possibly Tuesday across
  the south and east.

- Rest of the week, drying out with above normal temperatures of
  highs the mid 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Today... Interesting weather setup with small and compacts upper
level low spinning across northwest Minnesota. Upper level ascent
ahead of this PV anomaly, was leading to clouds and some rain
showers. For the rest of today, expect isolated rain showers mainly
along and north of I-94 from this feature.

Farther south, there was an area of clouds and showers across
southeast Minnesota, and these were tied to an area of low level
Theta_E advection, This will be the focus for showers and some
thunderstorms this afternoon through the late evening. Forecast
soundings for later today show low LCLs, a veered hodograph, and
around 1500 J/kg of uncapped CAPE. The current thinking is the
uncapped nature of the environment should lead to several
thunderstorms, and the lack of strong deep layer shear means the
updrafts will be short-lived and relatively weak.

However, there is a scenario where a couple storms are able to tap
into the marginal shear, and remain somewhat isolated. If this were
the case, could see a potential for a brief tornado, and perhaps
some large hail. SPC has introduced a 2 percent tornado chance for
this reason.

Later this evening, storms will become more elevated as we lose the
surface heating. This will bring an end to the tornado threat, but
some hail is possible for a few hours past sunset. In summary, the
severe weather threat is low, which is why there is only a Marginal
Risk, but a few of the stronger storms could pose a tornado and/or
hail threat.

Monday and Tuesday... The upper level trough bringing the chances
for rain will become more positively tilted and shear out, but this
will be a slow process. A few areas of positive vorticity will
rotate across the Upper Midwest, and could bring lingering small
chances for a light rain showers mainly to the south along I-90, and
along/east of I-35.

By Wednesday, confidence in dry weather increases. Upper level
subsidence is reflected in increasing surface pressure, so expect
more sun than clouds, with light winds expected through the weekend.
Temperatures will be in the 70s, with dewpoints in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 721 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

HRRR has had a good general idea with WAA convection over
southern MN, so leaned heavily on it to time shra/tsra chances
into MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU through much of the night. Forecast
soundings again show plenty of low level moisture for some more
fog/stratus fun tonight, though confidence of the fog/stratus
scenario is low as it will be dependent on how far north
convective activity and its associated cloud cover makes it
through the night. AXN looks to have the best chance at seeing
clearish skies and therefore has the best chances of fog. As
the rain clears a location, the threat for low stratus will
increase. Current TAFs may be a bit pessimistic, but again, the
extent of stratus going into Monday morning is a lower
confidence portion of the forecast. For Monday afternoon, the
TSRA threat looks to be down along the I-90 corridor.

KMSP...Followed the idea of the HRRR that we'll have scattered
showers and occastional TS to deal with for basically the first
8 hours of this TAF period. About 75% of short term models drop
cigs down to IFR/MVFR levels between 10z and 16z, so did get
more aggressive with stratus mention Monday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NNW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
221745-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. A few storms over
southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro, may be
strong to severe, with the main hazard being large hail. There is
a non- zero chance of a brief tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected over far
southern Minnesota on Monday. A few storms may be strong to
severe, with the main hazards being large hail and damaging
winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into
tonight.

Dunleavy

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
601 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Hail             6 W Lemond              43.98N 93.49W
09/21/2025  M1.25 Inch       Waseca             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
602 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     Hail             6 NNW New Richland      43.98N 93.53W
09/21/2025  M2.00 Inch       Waseca             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
632 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

MNZ085-220000-
Steele MN-
632 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN STEELE COUNTY
UNTIL 7 PM CDT...

At 632 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Ellendale, or 12 miles southwest of Owatonna,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Lemond and Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4401 9341 4398 9321 4388 9327 4391 9341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 283DEG 13KT 4396 9338

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

ETA

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
736 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

MNZ063-070-WIZ023-024-220115-
Pierce WI-Dakota MN-St. Croix WI-Washington MN-
736 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL DAKOTA...
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN PIERCE AND SOUTHWESTERN ST. CROIX
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 736 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms over Cottage Grove, or 14 miles southeast of St. Paul,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  River Falls, Woodbury, Cottage Grove, Inver Grove Heights,
  Hastings, Hudson, Lake Elmo, St. Paul Park, Prescott, North
  Hudson, Bayport, Afton, Oak Park Heights, Lakeland, Lakeland
  Shores, Afton State Park, Kinnickinnic State Park, St Marys Point,
  Lake St Croix Beach and Point Douglas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4482 9301 4503 9277 4494 9263 4484 9258
      4471 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 236DEG 21KT 4480 9292

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
806 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

MNZ062-063-070-220130-
Ramsey MN-Dakota MN-Washington MN-
806 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RAMSEY...NORTH
CENTRAL DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 806 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
St. Paul Park, or 7 miles southeast of St. Paul, moving northeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  St. Paul, Woodbury, Maplewood, Cottage Grove, Inver Grove Heights,
  Oakdale, South St. Paul, West St. Paul, Hudson, Mendota Heights,
  Lake Elmo, St. Paul Park, Bayport, Afton, Oak Park Heights,
  Newport, Lakeland, Sunfish Lake, Lakeland Shores and Lake Elmo
  Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4491 9305 4493 9300 4494 9298 4503 9277
      4503 9276 4502 9276 4500 9277 4497 9277
      4497 9276 4496 9275 4494 9275 4492 9276
      4491 9276 4483 9301 4487 9311
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 242DEG 31KT 4486 9302

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

ETA