Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Twin Cities, MN

812 
WWUS53 KMPX 220224
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
924 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

MNC037-053-123-220300-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-250922T0300Z/
Dakota MN-Hennepin MN-Ramsey MN-
924 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR 
DAKOTA, CENTRAL HENNEPIN, EAST HENNEPIN, AND SOUTH HENNEPIN AND 
RAMSEY COUNTIES...

At 924 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Richfield, or 
6 miles south of Minneapolis, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
  Minneapolis, St. Paul, Bloomington, Eagan, Burnsville, Apple 
  Valley, Edina, St. Louis Park, Richfield, Cottage Grove, Inver 
  Grove Heights, Rosemount, Golden Valley, South St. Paul, West St. 
  Paul, Mendota Heights, St. Paul Park, MSP International Airport, 
  Newport and Lilydale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm has produced large hail.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead 
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded 
roadways.

Report severe weather to your nearest law enforcement agency or the 
National Weather Service office in Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN.

&&

LAT...LON 4483 9337 4492 9335 4493 9335 4497 9333
      4489 9301 4489 9302 4488 9302 4487 9301
      4481 9301 4479 9302 4478 9302 4477 9301
      4468 9301
PARTITION...527053 627053 827053
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 294DEG 25KT 4491 9339

HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

ETA

851 
WWUS53 KMPX 220241
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
941 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

MNC123-220251-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-250922T0300Z/
Ramsey MN-
941 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN RAMSEY 
COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4486 9332 4486 9329 4489 9326 4490 9321
      4489 9318 4489 9316 4487 9301 4481 9301
      4479 9302 4477 9301 4468 9301 4481 9332
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 294DEG 25KT 4487 9327

$$


MNC037-053-220300-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-250922T0300Z/
Dakota MN-Hennepin MN-
941 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR 
DAKOTA AND EAST HENNEPIN AND SOUTH HENNEPIN COUNTIES...

At 941 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Eagan, or 9 
miles south of St. Paul, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
  Minneapolis, St. Paul, Bloomington, Eagan, Burnsville, Apple 
  Valley, Richfield, Cottage Grove, Inver Grove Heights, Rosemount, 
  South St. Paul, Mendota Heights, St. Paul Park, MSP International 
  Airport, Newport, Sunfish Lake, Mendota, Coates, South St Paul 
  Airport and Fort Snelling State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm is capable of producing large hail.

Report severe weather to your nearest law enforcement agency or the 
National Weather Service office in Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN.

&&

LAT...LON 4486 9332 4486 9329 4489 9326 4490 9321
      4489 9318 4489 9316 4487 9301 4481 9301
      4479 9302 4477 9301 4468 9301 4481 9332
PARTITION...627053 827053
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 294DEG 25KT 4487 9327

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

ETA

212 
WWUS53 KMPX 220251
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
951 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

MNC037-053-220301-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-250922T0300Z/
Dakota MN-Hennepin MN-
951 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM CDT FOR DAKOTA 
AND EAST HENNEPIN AND SOUTH HENNEPIN COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property. 
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. To report severe 
weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send 
your report to the National Weather Service office.

&&

LAT...LON 4486 9332 4486 9329 4489 9326 4490 9321
      4489 9318 4489 9316 4487 9301 4481 9301
      4479 9302 4477 9301 4468 9301 4481 9332
PARTITION...627053 827053
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 294DEG 25KT 4482 9312

$$

ETA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
736 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon/evening, a small chance
for strong/severe storms mainly in southern MN.

- Lingering shower chances Monday, and possibly Tuesday across
  the south and east.

- Rest of the week, drying out with above normal temperatures of
  highs the mid 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Today... Interesting weather setup with small and compacts upper
level low spinning across northwest Minnesota. Upper level ascent
ahead of this PV anomaly, was leading to clouds and some rain
showers. For the rest of today, expect isolated rain showers mainly
along and north of I-94 from this feature.

Farther south, there was an area of clouds and showers across
southeast Minnesota, and these were tied to an area of low level
Theta_E advection, This will be the focus for showers and some
thunderstorms this afternoon through the late evening. Forecast
soundings for later today show low LCLs, a veered hodograph, and
around 1500 J/kg of uncapped CAPE. The current thinking is the
uncapped nature of the environment should lead to several
thunderstorms, and the lack of strong deep layer shear means the
updrafts will be short-lived and relatively weak.

However, there is a scenario where a couple storms are able to tap
into the marginal shear, and remain somewhat isolated. If this were
the case, could see a potential for a brief tornado, and perhaps
some large hail. SPC has introduced a 2 percent tornado chance for
this reason.

Later this evening, storms will become more elevated as we lose the
surface heating. This will bring an end to the tornado threat, but
some hail is possible for a few hours past sunset. In summary, the
severe weather threat is low, which is why there is only a Marginal
Risk, but a few of the stronger storms could pose a tornado and/or
hail threat.

Monday and Tuesday... The upper level trough bringing the chances
for rain will become more positively tilted and shear out, but this
will be a slow process. A few areas of positive vorticity will
rotate across the Upper Midwest, and could bring lingering small
chances for a light rain showers mainly to the south along I-90, and
along/east of I-35.

By Wednesday, confidence in dry weather increases. Upper level
subsidence is reflected in increasing surface pressure, so expect
more sun than clouds, with light winds expected through the weekend.
Temperatures will be in the 70s, with dewpoints in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 721 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

HRRR has had a good general idea with WAA convection over
southern MN, so leaned heavily on it to time shra/tsra chances
into MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU through much of the night. Forecast
soundings again show plenty of low level moisture for some more
fog/stratus fun tonight, though confidence of the fog/stratus
scenario is low as it will be dependent on how far north
convective activity and its associated cloud cover makes it
through the night. AXN looks to have the best chance at seeing
clearish skies and therefore has the best chances of fog. As
the rain clears a location, the threat for low stratus will
increase. Current TAFs may be a bit pessimistic, but again, the
extent of stratus going into Monday morning is a lower
confidence portion of the forecast. For Monday afternoon, the
TSRA threat looks to be down along the I-90 corridor.

KMSP...Followed the idea of the HRRR that we'll have scattered
showers and occastional TS to deal with for basically the first
8 hours of this TAF period. About 75% of short term models drop
cigs down to IFR/MVFR levels between 10z and 16z, so did get
more aggressive with stratus mention Monday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NNW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
221745-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. A few storms over
southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro, may be
strong to severe, with the main hazard being large hail. There is
a non- zero chance of a brief tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected over far
southern Minnesota on Monday. A few storms may be strong to
severe, with the main hazards being large hail and damaging
winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into
tonight.

Dunleavy

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
830 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     Hail             1 SSW Woodbury          44.90N 92.94W
09/21/2025  M2.00 Inch       Washington         MN   Public

            Sent via X.

&&

mpg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
833 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     Hail             1 NNE Inver Grove Heigh 44.87N 93.03W
09/21/2025  M1.00 Inch       Dakota             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

mpg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
834 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Hail             1 SW Delano             45.03N 93.80W
09/21/2025  M0.75 Inch       Wright             MN   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
850 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     Hail             1 N Hudson              45.00N 92.76W
09/21/2025  M1.00 Inch       St. Croix          WI   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
907 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     Hail             1 W Minnetonka          44.93N 93.48W
09/21/2025  E1.00 Inch       Hennepin           MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
909 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     Hail             1 SE Deephaven          44.91N 93.50W
09/21/2025  M1.75 Inch       Hennepin           MN   911 Call Center

&&

mpg