Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke with diminished air quality expected today,
  improving after the frontal passage for Tuesday.

- The second half of the week continues to look warmer and more
humid. This will support a more active pattern with multiple rounds
of showers & thunderstorm through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

GOES satellite imagery reveals a developing Cu field overhead & a
swath of wildfire smoke ahead of an approaching cold front. This
wildfire smoke has led to the issuance of an AQA for all of MN &
west-central WI until Tuesday. Surface observations show the impact
of near surface smoke across western & central MN, where numerous
sites are observing visibilities down in the 3 to 5SM range. Smoke
will continue eastward throughout the day with visibility impacts
likely to follow. High temperatures top out in the low to mid 80s
with "comfortable" humidity levels & light SW winds. Overnight, an
approaching cold front will move into western & central MN, bringing
a band of scattered showers with it. There could be a few rumbles of
thunder, but nothing too impactful. Rain amounts are likely to be a
few hundredths to a quarter inch - not a widespread or heavy
rainfall by any means. This boundary will continue eastward with a
few isolated showers possible across E MN & W WI early Tuesday
morning.

Air quality should improve behind the front with NW/WNW surface
winds ushering in a smoke-free airmass. Temperatures will still warm
into the upper 70s & lower 80s but it should remain comfortable with
respect to humidity through mid week. A more active stretch is on
tap for the second half of the week into next weekend as low level
flow turns to the south. This will bring us multiple rain & t-storm
chances into next weekend. Guidance has Td's increasing into the low
to mid 70s by Friday with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. This
will be a tricky set up as there is the potential for a stationary
boundary to set up somewhere across the Upper Midwest over the
weekend. This boundary would pose an increased threat of
thunderstorms & heavy rain potential, given the increased likelihood
of training convection. There is also a non-zero chance for severe
weather given the uptick in instability associated with the moist
airmass in place. Several shortwaves will track along this boundary,
each with the potential to bring heavy rain & severe thunderstorms,
but it's too early to focus on the finer details given it's 5+ days
out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Smoke, with 3-5sm vis will linger much of the night across MN,
but will start to improve Tuesday as the cold front currently
approaching Fargo moves across the area tonight through Tuesday
morning. As for that front, roughly 1500 j/kg of minimally
capped mlCAPE has resulted in a broken line of storms from Lake
of the Woods to northeast SoDak. We have enough confidence in TS
impacting AXN/STC to convert prob30s to tempo groups there this
evening. These storms will be losing steam across central MN, so
continued to keep all other terminals dry with the fropa, though
did add a prob30 for shra at EAU late Tuesday morning where the
HRRR is showing some showers developing as deeper diurnal
mixing develops. RAP soundings support some MVFR cig potential
in the morning behind the FROPA, basically as a diurnal cu-field
starts to develop. Despite this, models don't really hint at
much low stratus developing, so it doesn't show up in the TAFs,
but will be a trend we'll have to watch.

KMSP...Can't rule out a shower between 8z and 11z and likewise,
can't completely rule out a brief MVFR cig between 10z and 14z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts bcmg S.
THU...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
122000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
257 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Poor air quality due to Canadian wildfire smoke is expected. An
Air Quality Alert is in effect for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Air quality gradually improves Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
914 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     Hail             2 NNW Donnelly          45.72N 96.03W
08/11/2025  M1.50 Inch       Stevens            MN   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
915 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     Hail             9 WNW Donnelly          45.72N 96.19W
08/11/2025  E1.50 Inch       Stevens            MN   Trained Spotter

&&

mpg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
944 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

MNZ041>043-048-049-120345-
Morrison MN-Todd MN-Pope MN-Douglas MN-Stearns MN-
944 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN DOUGLAS...
POPE...TODD...MORRISON AND NORTHWESTERN STEARNS COUNTIES UNTIL 1045
PM CDT...

At 944 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 15 miles north of Camp Ripley to near
Cyrus, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Alexandria, Little Falls, St. Anthony, Sauk Centre, Melrose, Long
  Prairie, Glenwood, Starbuck, Browerville, Brooten, Belgrade,
  Clarissa, Randall, Freeport, Carlos, Upsala, Swanville, Grey
  Eagle, Lowry and Kensington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4578 9574 4616 9500 4631 9456 4633 9443
      4627 9434 4623 9439 4616 9437 4616 9393
      4598 9414 4541 9507 4541 9565 4545 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 292DEG 22KT 4630 9439 4607 9470 4588 9510
4574 9538 4555 9573

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MPG

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