Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke with diminished air quality expected today,
  improving after the frontal passage for Tuesday.

- The second half of the week continues to look warmer and more
humid. This will support a more active pattern with multiple rounds
of showers & thunderstorm through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

GOES satellite imagery reveals a developing Cu field overhead & a
swath of wildfire smoke ahead of an approaching cold front. This
wildfire smoke has led to the issuance of an AQA for all of MN &
west-central WI until Tuesday. Surface observations show the impact
of near surface smoke across western & central MN, where numerous
sites are observing visibilities down in the 3 to 5SM range. Smoke
will continue eastward throughout the day with visibility impacts
likely to follow. High temperatures top out in the low to mid 80s
with "comfortable" humidity levels & light SW winds. Overnight, an
approaching cold front will move into western & central MN, bringing
a band of scattered showers with it. There could be a few rumbles of
thunder, but nothing too impactful. Rain amounts are likely to be a
few hundredths to a quarter inch - not a widespread or heavy
rainfall by any means. This boundary will continue eastward with a
few isolated showers possible across E MN & W WI early Tuesday
morning.

Air quality should improve behind the front with NW/WNW surface
winds ushering in a smoke-free airmass. Temperatures will still warm
into the upper 70s & lower 80s but it should remain comfortable with
respect to humidity through mid week. A more active stretch is on
tap for the second half of the week into next weekend as low level
flow turns to the south. This will bring us multiple rain & t-storm
chances into next weekend. Guidance has Td's increasing into the low
to mid 70s by Friday with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. This
will be a tricky set up as there is the potential for a stationary
boundary to set up somewhere across the Upper Midwest over the
weekend. This boundary would pose an increased threat of
thunderstorms & heavy rain potential, given the increased likelihood
of training convection. There is also a non-zero chance for severe
weather given the uptick in instability associated with the moist
airmass in place. Several shortwaves will track along this boundary,
each with the potential to bring heavy rain & severe thunderstorms,
but it's too early to focus on the finer details given it's 5+ days
out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Smoke, with 3-5sm vis will linger much of the night across MN,
but will start to improve Tuesday as the cold front currently
approaching Fargo moves across the area tonight through Tuesday
morning. As for that front, roughly 1500 j/kg of minimally
capped mlCAPE has resulted in a broken line of storms from Lake
of the Woods to northeast SoDak. We have enough confidence in TS
impacting AXN/STC to convert prob30s to tempo groups there this
evening. These storms will be losing steam across central MN, so
continued to keep all other terminals dry with the fropa, though
did add a prob30 for shra at EAU late Tuesday morning where the
HRRR is showing some showers developing as deeper diurnal
mixing develops. RAP soundings support some MVFR cig potential
in the morning behind the FROPA, basically as a diurnal cu-field
starts to develop. Despite this, models don't really hint at
much low stratus developing, so it doesn't show up in the TAFs,
but will be a trend we'll have to watch.

KMSP...Can't rule out a shower between 8z and 11z and likewise,
can't completely rule out a brief MVFR cig between 10z and 14z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts bcmg S.
THU...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
122000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
257 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Poor air quality due to Canadian wildfire smoke is expected. An
Air Quality Alert is in effect for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Air quality gradually improves Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
846 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

MNZ041-047-048-120245-
Stevens MN-Douglas MN-Pope MN-
846 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN STEVENS...
DOUGLAS AND NORTHWESTERN POPE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 846 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Evansville to 10 miles north of
Chokio, or extending from 20 miles west of Alexandria to 17 miles
northwest of Morris, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Alexandria, Morris, Starbuck, Evansville, Carlos, Brandon, Lowry,
  Kensington, Cyrus, Donnelly, Fish Lake, Holmes City, Garfield,
  Belle River, Nelson, Forada, Farwell, Melby, and Morris Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4607 9577 4600 9515 4569 9542 4549 9570
      4564 9625 4576 9625 4576 9576 4593 9576
      4593 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 286DEG 23KT 4597 9576 4581 9596 4572 9620

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MPG