Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
337 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning with
  additional redevelopment possible for far southern Minnesota
  and western Wisconsin into the evening. Heavy rain is the
  primary hazard.

- Seasonable temperatures and drier conditions expected through
  much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

It took a while to overcome strong capping and a lack of shear
across central and eastern Minnesota, but storms have slowly
grown in coverage and intensity and are now situated between the
Twin Cities and St. Cloud from the Minnesota/Wisconsin border
back to the Minnesota River. These storms are producing gusty
winds and occasional severe hail, but it appears heavy rain will
end up becoming the primary threat over the next couple of
hours. Some impressive rainfall rates have been observed in
Wright County, with KMGG picking up over an inch of rain in the
2-3am hour. Rainfall rates of 0.5-1"/hr are expected to continue
with pwats nearing 2". Tds are still in the mid 70s ahead of
the surface front, which lies roughly from central Stearns
County through Renville County down through the Iowa border.
There is no shortage of instability now that CINH is no longer
an issue, but shear has been the limiting factor for much of the
early morning. The LLJ is strongest over southeastern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin, so as the storms slowly continue to the
ENE, they will encounter an increasingly favorable environment.
Heavy rain and training thunderstorms are expected to continue
into the mid morning hours for eastern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. Further south towards I-90, models are continuing to
highlight the development of additional heavy rain and
thunderstorms later this morning. Have increased PoPs and QPF
through 18z to account for this. Further west, clouds should
gradually clear by late morning with the remainder of the CWA
following suit by this evening.

The second half of the weekend looks drier for most, with extreme
southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin hanging on to some
precip chances as the front stalls out over eastern Iowa.
Temperatures for the upcoming week look seasonable for mid August in
the low to mid 80s and dew points in the 60s. There doesn't appear
to be much in the way of precip until late in the week as a series
of shortwaves move across the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

The first 6 or so hours of the period will be dealing with
ongoing TSRA across most of the sites with the exception of
AXN/RWF, with storms generally arriving earlier in the west and
later in the east. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible as
storms move through, with VFR returning quickly behind the cold
front as skies clear out by the second half of the period. Winds
will shift towards 240-270 and weaken below 7kts behind the
front as well. We may need some short term AMDs to handle the
convection as the storms move through as we have yet to see the
line fully materialize along the cold front.

KMSP...Compared to the 00z TAF, the main change is a slight
timing difference in the TEMPO group for TSRA. We may see brief
MVFR/IFR conditions from TSRA. Otherwise we improve to FEW250
by 22-23z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5kts.
MON...VFR. Wind W 5kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
100845-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
345 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue across eastern and
southern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin through this
morning. A few strong storms may pose a threat for gusty winds and
small hail.

Areas of dense fog are possible overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1107 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

MNZ049-057-058-090445-
Kandiyohi MN-Meeker MN-Stearns MN-
1107 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MEEKER...
NORTHEASTERN KANDIYOHI AND WESTERN STEARNS COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM
CDT...

At 1107 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 9 miles south of Melrose to near
Willmar, or extending from 30 miles north of Willmar to near
Willmar, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Willmar, Melrose, Paynesville, New London, Spicer, Freeport, Green
  Lake, New Munich, Greenwald, Elrosa, Meire Grove, Lake Henry,
  Spring Hill, Regal, Georgeville, Hawick, Paynesville Airport, Lake
  Koronis Regional Park, Sibley State Park and St. Rosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4514 9507 4561 9494 4575 9468 4521 9469
TIME...MOT...LOC 0407Z 241DEG 18KT 4554 9485 4546 9490 4535 9496
4519 9500

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dunleavy

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
221 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 AM     Hail             3 SSE Dassel            45.04N 94.29W
08/09/2025  E0.75 Inch       Meeker             MN   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
222 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     Hail             Maple Lake              45.23N 94.00W
08/09/2025  E0.75 Inch       Wright             MN   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
230 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     Hail             1 NW Cokato             45.08N 94.20W
08/09/2025  M1.00 Inch       Wright             MN   Public

&&

MED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
445 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

MNC003-053-123-091115-
Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-
445 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Hennepin...Anoka...Ramsey...

* Until 615 AM CDT.

* At 444 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
  the area. 1 to 2 inches of rain have fallen.

* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include...
  Minneapolis, St. Paul, Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth, Maple
  Grove, Coon Rapids, Eden Prairie, Blaine, Minnetonka, Edina, and
  St. Louis Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 4519 9304 4493 9299 4491 9306 4492 9313
      4490 9315 4482 9352 4493 9352 4497 9348
      4499 9352 4517 9352 4522 9331

Borghoff